Matt Lynch-- He's Too Extreme For Ohio

Tuesday is election day in Ohio. Yes, this Tuesday. And one of the most important races for progressives is in the extreme northeast corner of the state between Cleveland and the Pennsylvania border, CD-14. The Blue America candidate there is Michael Wager and he's up against two Republicans. Republican David Joyce is the incumbent. He's a mainstream conservative fighting for survival against a bizarre far right extremist, state Rep. Matt Lynch. Polling shows that Wager has an excellent shot to beat Joyce, although it would be pretty close. Joyce is a tool for Big Business and has been heavily backed for the U.S. Chamber and can expect a flood of dark money from the Kochs if he wins the primary.

But that's a big "if." Lynch is making tremendous headway with base voters likely to turn out on Tuesday. Groups like FreedomWorks who are funding Lynch don't think Joyce is extreme enough for their Hate Talk Radio-induced political psychosis. If Lynch beats Joyce, Wager, who has no primary opponent Tuesday, will win the general election by double digits. Hence, the TV ad above that Wager has been running all weak in heavy rotation. Look at it closely and I'm sure you'll recognize the strategic goal.

Lynch represents a more extreme and dangerous brand of right-wing politics and policy than Joyce, who has, basically, been a zombie for Boehner since his first day in Congress 17 months ago. Lynch talks in platitudes about the Constitution and “Faith, Family, Freedom” but Republicans understand his coded messages to mean he's unabashedly opposed to:

•         Affordable Care Act
•         Increased Minimum Wage
•         Immigration Reform, including any path to citizenship
•         SNAP, Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security
•         Marriage Equality
•         Any access to abortion, supporting  “life begins at conception” laws
•         Any limitation on gun ownership

While it has been the conventional wisdom inside the Beltway that Joyce will prevail, it is not necessarily so. Lynch is endorsed by Tea Party Patriots, FreedomWorks, the Ohio Right to Life Society and the National Association of Gun Owners, among others. He hasn’t raised much money, but he has had broad grassroot support. As a result, the incumbent and his PAC supporters, including the U.S. Chamber, have already spent approximately $800,000 (and still counting) on TV, radio and direct mail. In addition, the Joyce campaign funded an expensive poll in March, but no word on any of the results. Now, does this sound like a confident incumbent?

Michael, supported by a broad spectrum of Democratic officeholders and constituencies (including U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown, former Governor Ted Strickland, NARAL, AFSCME, SEIU, UAW and CWA) continues to raise at an unprecedented level for an Ohio congressional challenger. Through March 31st, he has raised over $850,000, with over 80% from individuals. You can contribute to his campaign here.

The district is the last truly competitive Congressional District in Ohio; Nate Silver identifies it as one of only 35 remaining swing districts in the US.   Sherrod Brown has carried this district (as currently configured) in 2006 and 2012. Michael can do the same in 2014 against a weak incumbent-- or, dare we say-- a Tea Party extremist.

UPDATE: Meanwhile, Across The State...

Tomorrow is also primary-day in OH-08, of course, Boehner's district. Patrick Howley of the Daily Caller reports that Boehner isn't exactly skating to renomination. Steve Israel has once again sabotaged Democrats hoping to run against him, so the only contest Boehner faces is tomorrow's primary. His support, according to a GOP polling firm, is 49%. "Boehner," he reports, "picked up 49 percent support in his re-election bid and registered a 30 percent 'unfavorable' rating in the poll, which surveyed Republican voters in Ohio’s eighth congressional district that have voted in all four of the last Republican primaries in the state."

Boehner faces tea party challenger J.D. Winteregg in Tuesday’s Republican primary, in which approximately 85,000 voters are expected to head to the polls. Winteregg, who has been endorsed by the Tea Party Leadership Fund, was recently fired from his job as an adjunct professor at Ohio’s Cedarville University for running a viral commercial parody accusing Boehner of “Electile Dysfunction."

Winteregg joined Boehner’s 2010 Democratic opponent Justin Coussoule in an exclusive club: Boehner’s last two serious district challengers were both fired from their Ohio jobs during their campaigns.

Though more than $300,000 has been spent on Winteregg’s behalf in the campaign, Boehner has drastically outraised the tea party candidate and is inundating district voters with mailings and paid door-knocks ahead of Tuesday’s primary.