How Is Steve Israel's Advice Working Out For New Hampshire Democrats?

Anne and Carol, New Hampshire Democrats with different approaches

Last year, as early New Hampshire congressional polling began showing up, we saw an interesting trend. Anne Kuster, a New Dem who represents the bluer of the two congressional districts (D+3) but who votes far more conservatively, was jeopardizing her reelection by turning off the Democratic base, while the more progressive and independent-minded Carol Shea-Porter, who represents a Republican-leaning swing district (R+1), was in excellent shape because, in sticking to her progressive values, she had pleased the base and the independents. In short, following Steve Israel's advice to rebrand herself as a New Dem is not paying off for Kuster. And a brand new Granite State Poll this week confirmed that. Steve Israel should pay very close attention to this before he destroys any more Democratic freshmen with his horrible advise: "District 1 Congresswoman Carol-Shea Porter’s favorability ratings are at their highest point since 2012, and she leads her two potential GOP challengers. District 2 Congresswoman Ann Kuster continues to struggle with poor favorability ratings and is in a dead heat with relatively unknown challenger Marilinda Garcia." Israel continues telling vulnerable Democrats to vote with the Republicans. And Nancy Pelosi winks and nods vacuously and calls him reptilian… approvingly. In 2012 Obama won an historic victory and Patty Murray led the DSCC to jaw-dropping victory after jaw-dropping victory in almost every contested GOP-favored race, including in pretty red territory like North Dakota, Virginia, Missouri, Indiana, Montana, West Virginia… while Israel lost his ass in district after district-- and handed Boehner another term as Speaker on a silver platter. An incompetent and an idiot, incapable of learning from past mistakes, he's in the midst of doing the same thing again this cycle.

Independent of the corrupt Beltway bosses, Shea-Porter is viewed as someone toiling away solely in the interests of New Hampshire's working families. The Granite State poll analysis:

Democrat Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter, who was elected in 2006 from New Hampshire’s First Congressional District, lost in 2010, and regained the seat in 2012, remains modestly popular in her district. Currently, 45% of 1st District adults have a favorable opinion of Shea-Porter, 30% have an unfavorable opinion, 9% are neutral, and 16% don’t know enough about her to say. Her net favorability rating, the percentage who have a favorable opinion of her minus the percentage who have an unfavorable opinion, is +15%, which is up from +7% in January. This represents Shea-Porter’s highest net favorability score since August 2012. She is very popular among Democrats (net +61%), somewhat popular among Independents (net +10%), and unpopular among Republicans (net -28%). Shea-Porter’s net favorability among likely 2014 voters is +16%… In a trial heat between Shea-Porter and Guinta, 44% of likely 1st District likely voters say they would vote for Shea-Porter if the election were held today, 35% would support Guinta, and 21% are undecided.

…In New Hampshire’s Second Congressional District, first term Congresswoman Ann Kuster’s favorability ratings continue to remain low. Currently, only 27% of 2nd District adults have a favorable opinion of Kuster, 33% have an unfavorable opinion of her, 10% are neutral, and 29% don’t know enough about her to say. Her net favorability rating is very low for an incumbent, -6%, which is down from -2% in January. She is popular among Democrats (net +46%), but is very unpopular among Independents (net -50%) and Republicans (net -36%). Kuster’s net favorability among likely 2014 voters is -5%.

The two Republican candidates who have challenged Kuster are former State Senator Gary Lambert (R-Nashua) and State Representative Marilinda Garcia (R-Salem). Neither is particularly well-known -- only 4% of Second District adults have a favorable opinion of Lambert, 6% have an unfavorable opinion, 9% are neutral, and 80% don’t know enough about him to say. His net favorability rating is -2%, which is down from +1% in January. Lambert’s net favorability among likely 2014 voters is also -2%. Meanwhile, 13% of Second District adults have a favorable opinion of Garcia, 6% have an unfavorable opinion, 5% are neutral, and 76% don’t know enough about her to say. Her net favorability rating is +7%, which is up from +5% in January. Garcia’s net favorability among likely 2014 voters is +11%.

Despite being relatively unknown in the District, Garcia is in a dead heat with Kuster. If the election were held today, 34% of likely voters in the 2nd District say they would vote for Kuster, 33% would vote for Garcia, 1% would vote for someone else and 32% are undecided… Both Garcia (38%-14%) and Lambert (34%-14%) lead Kuster by double digits among independent voters. But the primary reason Garcia does better than Lambert when matched with Kuster is that Garcia gets more support among women. Kuster leads Lambert by 16 percentage points among women but only leads Garcia by 5 percentage points.

This should be a warning to incumbents and candidates alike-- following Steve Israel's advice to vote against the base, turns off the base, turns off independents and wins no support among Republicans. Blue America, is, once again, endorsing Carol Shea-Porter; she's earned our continued support. Since there is no primary challenger this year, we have nothing to say about Kuster's race. You can help make sure Carol is reelected here.