Democrats Need 17 Pickups To Take Back The House-- So The DCCC Endorses 16 Red To Blue Candidates

I don't expect lazy Beltway reporters to dig this deep, but the real story of yesterday's DCCC Red-to-Blue announcement was less about a bunch of lame recruits like Blue Dog Gwen Graham (FL) and "mystery meat" no issues candidates like Domenic Recchia (NY) and Ann Callis (IL), than it was about which candidates and which districts got left out again. As we mentioned yesterday, Israel downgraded incredibly bad Jump Start recruits Pete Aguilar (CA-31) and Kevin Strouse (PA-08) into "emerging races," meaning the DCCC has backed away from interfering in the primaries in those districts. That's something Israel should have thought of before he tried slipping in his inferior, conservative recruits. But he's still doing it in other districts, like IL-13, where he's backing Ann Callis against progressive George Gollin and in VA-10, NY-04, NM-03, NJ-03 and several other races with contested primaries.

The best news was that heavy pressure from his colleagues got Israel to add progressives Michael Wager (OH-14) and Lee Rogers (CA-25) to the Emerging Races List, even though it's hard to understand why Rogers and Wager didn't rate full-on Red-to-Blue endorsements. It may be a start-- although, having watched the DCCC in action over the years, it's more likely a dead end. To be fair, Israel mouthed some kind of half-assed endorsement for each. Regarding Rogers, he said, "As a nationally renowned doctor who is dedicated to patients’ rights, Lee Rogers has a proven track record of working hard for average families. Lee can put this competitive seat in play because he is committed to fighting for opportunity and good jobs for all, unlike House Republicans who are stacking the deck for special interests."

So what races did Israel leave out that could possibly get the Democrats to 17? This is a list of winnable seats, far more winnable than many of Israel's pie-in-the-sky districts with R+15 and R+8 PVIs. Each of these districts either has a solid progressive running against a vulnerable Republican or has no candidate running because local Democrats have just given up after years of abuse at the hands of the DCCC-- and each has been studiously avoided by Israel. PVI's are in parenthesis:

• NY-02, Peter King- R+1 (Obama won in 2008 and 2012)
• MI-06, Fred Upton- R+1 (Obama won in 2008)
• WA-08, Dave Reichert- R+1 (Obama won in 2008 and 2012)
• FL-27, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen- R+2 (Obama won in 2012)
• WI-07, Sean Duffy- R+2 (Obama won in 2008)
• WI-08, Reid Ribble- R+2 (Obama won in 2008)
• MN-03, Erik Paulsen- R+2 (Obama won in 2008 and 2012)
• PA-07, Patrick Meehan- R+2 (Obama won in 2008)
• MN-02, John Kline- R+2 (Obama won in 2008 and 2012)
• PA-15, Charlie Dent- R+2 (Obama won in 2008)
• MI-08, Mike Rogers- R+2 (Obama won in 2008)
• WA-03, Jaime Herrera Beutler- R+2 (Obama won in 2008)
• WI-01, Paul Ryan- R+3 (Obama won in 2008)
• IL-06, Peter Roskam- R+4 (Obama won in 2008)
• PA-16, Joseph Pitts- R+4 (Obama won in 2008)
• CA-49, Darrell Issa- R+4 (Obama won in 2008)
• IL-16, Adam Kinzinger- R+4 (Obama won in 2008)

17 districts the DCCC is refusing to contest-- all of which Obama won in either 2008 and/or 2010. It's the exact number that would make Nancy Pelosi Speaker again instead of Boehner. And some of them have outstanding candidates, like Paul Clements against Upton, Jason Ritchie against Reichert, Kelly Westlund against Duffy, Rob Zerban against Ryan, and Mike Obermueller against Kline, most of whom have been endorsed by Blue America and other progressive groups like PCCC, MoveOn and DFA. Israel will never win back the House. He's lame and corrupt and has a self-serving, disastrous deal with the NRCC. If we want to take the House back from the Republicans we need to do it ourselves by directly contributing to strong progressives in winnable districts, like these men and women.

Yesterday, the Chicago Tribune recommended voters ignore Israel's recruit, Ann Callis, and vote for progressive George Gollin instead. In their endorsement they said that "in the Democratic primary… Sen. Dick Durbin's chosen candidate is carefully insulated from anyone who might ask her a tough question. Former Madison County chief judge Ann Callis sticks to safe talking points, occasionally name-checking Durbin. Her answers to our survey are carefully scripted, heavy on promises to protect seniors and middle-class families without explaining what she'd actually do. She would not agree to be interviewed by the Tribune.

Our pick is George Gollin, a physics professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He's a good fit for a district that is home to nine colleges and universities, including U. of I., Illinois State University and Southern Illinois University at Edwardsville. He has experience writing and advocating for federal legislation on higher education and made headlines in 2008 for helping to expose and shut down diploma mills across the country. We disagree with many of his positions, but at least we know where he stands.

Dozens of good progressives from around the country have told me they wouldn't run while Israel is in charge of the DCCC. "That backstabber?" one declared. "He's not a man of his word-- and everyone knows it. Other Members have told me to wait 'til 2016 when he's out of there." One decent, first-time candidate who didn't wait and who agreed to speak on the record is Jason Ritchie, the progressive running against GOP incumbent Dave Reichert in a suburban Seattle district that Israel is ignoring. Here's what he told me yesterday after the DCCC endorsements came out: "Rep. Reichert is by far the most vulnerable of all the House GOP in Washington State this cycle. He has turned hard to the right; slashing SNAP, voting to shutdown the government over the ACA and ignoring middle class demands to rise the minimum wage. I am standing to challenge him but the DCCC refuses to consider this race competitive. If the Democratic party ever wants to retake the House, we must demand they cultivate and stand with small business owners who are willing to fight for progressive ideals and opposes GOP impediments to progress. I am willing to stand and fight but the DCCC must stand with me."