Could Lindsey Graham Lose to a Democrat?

The South Caolina Senate race may be more of a tossup than anyone realizes. With Patty Murray, the architect of the DSCC's stunning series of victories in 2012, having turned over the reins of the committee to one of the Senate's weakest, lamest and least capable members, Michael Bennet, there are ominous signs ominously pointing to the possibility that Democrats will narrowly lose the Senate this year. The hackish executive director, Guy Cecil, who totally controls Bennet has vetoed DSCC involvement on behalf of grassroots progressives in races in South Dakota and Maine and Senate Democrats are in panic mode, scrambling to defend numerous vulnerable seats and counting on a surprise win in Kentucky or Georgia just to hang on to a slim majority.

There has been no shortage of bad news recently, including the loss of a purported bellwether House race in Florida and Republican recruiting successes in Colorado and New Hampshire.

But there is also a glimmer of good news for Democrats coming from the unlikeliest of states: South Carolina. There, Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham is fighting the toughest campaign of his career against six Tea Party challengers in a bitter contest for the GOP nomination. Although Graham is expected to win his primary, he will emerge from it bruised, battered, and with a much reduced war-chest. One of his Republican opponents is already publicly gay-baiting the closeted Graham, which local media has picked up on in a big way. Dave Feliciano of Spartanburg: "It's about time that South Carolina (says) hey, We're tired of the ambiguously gay senator from South Carolina. We're ready for a new leader to merge the Republican Party. We're done with this. This is what it's about, all of us coming together and saying, one way or the other, one of us is going to be on that ballot in November."

All of this is of course positive for Jay Stamper, Graham’s Democratic challenger and the candidate endorsed by Blue America. But, what’s really getting national Democrats’ attention is the likely independent candidacy of former State Treasurer Thomas Ravenel. Ravenel is a right wing conservative who plans to run to Graham’s right as an independent in the general election. He also plans to fund his campaign using his considerable fortune, reminiscent of his 2004 campaign for U.S. Senate in which he spent $2.7 million of his own money.

In other words, Ravenel is the perfect spoiler. His campaign could easily siphon 20% of the vote from Graham in the general election. Thanks to a loyal base, Democratic candidates running statewide in South Carolina typically receive approximately 40% of the vote simply by being on the ballot with a ‘D’ next to their name. So, Jay Stamper should receive at least 40% of the vote (Graham’s last Democratic opponent received 42.25% of the vote after spending a total of just $15,000 in both the primary and general election). That leaves 40% of the vote for Graham, which makes the race a tossup.

But a potential Ravenel candidacy, though a Godsend, is only one of many reasons that a Jay Stamper win is beginning to look possible. Other compelling reasons include the down-ballot lift generated by the gubernatorial candidacy of Democrat Vincent Sheheen, who lost narrowly to Republican governor Nikki Haley in 2010. Sheheen is back for a rematch, with millions of dollars being pored into his campaign by state and national groups. The state party’s $3.5 million GOTV campaign is meant to bolster Sheheen but will help every Democrat on the ballot.

Finally, South Carolina is simply not as red as the popular perception would suggest. The 2012 Presidential election results demonstrated that South Carolina is only the 19th most Republican state in country and, with only three exceptions, Democrats have held state-wide elected office in South Carolina every single year since 1886! South Carolina has a strong Democratic tradition, a loyal voting base and even had a Democratic U.S. Senator until 2005.

The bottom line is that South Carolina may be a much more promising state for Democrats in 2014 than either Kentucky or Georgia, races that are rated as ‘Likely R’ and ‘Leans R’ respectively. Yet, despite having a plausible path to victory, Stamper’s campaign has yet to receive even a fraction of the funds being donated to Allison Lundergran Grimes (D-KY) or Michelle Nunn (D-GA).

If Democrats are going to hold onto the Senate this year, we need to recognize overlooked opportunities and go on the offensive to put at least one more state into play. That state may very well be South Carolina. You can contribute to Stamper's campaign here.