Race For Bill Young's Florida Seat Goes Into The Final Month-- Democrat Alex Sink Is Winning

Because the Cook Report is slightly skewered towards conservatives, their PVIs are generally a full point or two more Republican. Or, pout another way, the PVI are as much as 12-18 months behind demographic changes in districts. Always a rearview mirror operation rather than a forward-looking predictor, Cook rarely gets anything right-- until the day after an election. FL-13, entirely within Pinellas County, was gerrymandered in 2010 to make it safer for Republicans by taking out the African-American areas of south St Petersburg and dumping them into FL-14 (D+13). According to Cook that left FL-13 with a PVI of R+1, a safer situation for longtime incumbent Bill Young when it was FL-10 and had a PVI of D+1. The reality, though, was that old white men were dying off at a faster rate than Republican state legislators could jigger the district boundaries. Within these new boundaries, Obama has beaten McCain in 2008, 51-48% and then gone on to beat Romney 50-49%. And in 2012, Young's reelection margin was the lowest it had been in 2 decades-- and the first time his win number started with a 5 instead of a 6 or a 7. The last poll before he announced he was retiring and then died a week or so later, showed that he would probably lose in November:

After Young's death, the Democrats quickly coalesced around 2012 gubernatorial candidate Alex Sink, a moderate and inoffensive Democratic centrist with sky-high name recognition. She had won FL-13 handily in her race against far right extremist Rick Scott, 153,747 (51%) to 136,577 (45%). The GOP immediately got into a bloody battle for the nomination, after every top tier candidate declined to run. They wound up with a little-known Beltway lobbyist, David Jolly, who has offered no reason for anyone to support him other than the fact he's a Republican and that he wants to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Independents, who make up 24% of registered voters and decide all elections in FL-13, seem disinterested in his campaign and the latest polling shows him losing to Sink.

In the hard-fought and nationally watched campaign, 42 percent would vote for Sink, 35 percent for Jolly and 4 percent for Libertarian candidate Lucas Overby, according to an exclusive Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/WUSF Public Media poll of likely voters in Congressional District 13. The margin of error was 4 percentage points.

The poll also reveals how the Affordable Care Act has become a virtual litmus test for voters.

Of those who support Sink, 81 percent also support Obamacare. Of those who support Jolly, 84 percent also oppose Obamacare.

The election is less than a month away-- March 11-- and both parties are spending inordinate amounts of money. TV time is through the roof and the entire Tampa Bay region is saturated with ads. Sink and Democratic groups have outspent the Jolly forces slightly but it is estimated that by election day, equal amounts will have been spent, primarily to smear and define the other candidate. GOP ad spending is accelerating, primarily from the NRCC ($1.07 million), the Chamber of Commerce ($775,000) and Rove (just under $400,000). The DCCC and it's allied House Majority PAC have spent approximately $2.5 million so far. The most recent FEC filing shows Jolly with $72,954 cash on hand-- after have spent most of his contributions on winning the primary-- while Sink is holding $1,142,848. Her own campaign is massively outspending his own campaign and it is only through the efforts of right-wing outside groups that he is staying even. His campaign spent around $180,000 on TV ads so far and hers has spent just over a million. The Cantor/Ryan SuperPAC, Young Guns, plans to spend around a quarter million dollars and EMILY's List is spending on direct mail, more interested-- as usual-- in pumping money into its own coffers than helping win the race. EMILY's List forces candidates to hire incompetent firms run or staffed by EMILY's List-related operatives and they spend their own resources strictly in ways that help their own bottom line. It's their business model.

Republicans haven't stopped whining, as they always do, that the Times poll is skewered or something. However, another poll came out this morning showing Jolly in even worse trouble, a 9 point spread between him and Sink with Libertarian Lucas Overby taking 12 points, likely most of it from Jolly.

“Ms. Sink’s advantage is being driven by solid favorability ratings coupled with issue positions that seem to be more closely aligned with voter preferences than are Jolly’s,” said Frank Orlando, a political science instructor at Saint Leo University. “She overcomes a partisan ID disadvantage in the district by maintaining much higher favorability among than Republicans and Independents than Mr. Jolly does among Democrats. The fact that a Libertarian candidate has robust support levels in the double digits seems to be contributing to the size of Sink’s lead.”

Democrats are overwhelmingly (88 percent) favoring Sink with only 6 percent favoring Jolly and 4 percent favoring Overby. However, Republicans are a bit more divided on their candidate. Only 64 percent of Republicans are backing Jolly. Sixteen percent of Republicans say they’ll vote for Sink and another 14 percent say they’ll chose the Libertarian candidate.

“Jolly is not only leaking Republican voters to Alex Sink, but also to David Overby,” said Orlando. “Traditionally, Libertarian candidates have siphoned off more support from Rebublicans and Republican-leaning independents, and this is the case here. Despite being outspent and advertised, Overby’s presence in the televised debate has increased his visibility, but it remains to be seen if he can maintain this support to election day.”

…Opinion is also split about what to do about the Affordable Care Act. A plurality of voters – 40 percent – think Congress should keep the law but make changes to fix it. This is essentially Sink’s position on the law. Just 20 percent of voters say Congress should repeal the law entirely, which is essentially Jolly’s position. Overall, 57 percent of voters think the law should be kept in one form or another, while 41 percent think it should be repealed (20 percent) or repealed and replaced with another plan (21 percent).

Voters also support providing a path to legal status for undocumented immigrants (57 percent), while 34 percent think they should be required to leave the country. Jolly has taken a harder line on immigration than has Sink, and again Sink appears to be closer to where most voters are on the issue.

“David Jolly has made linking Alex Sink with President Obama’s agenda a centerpiece of his campaign,” continued Orlando. “While Jolly is performing well among voters that would like to see Obamacare repealed, he must win over at least a few voters that take a less negative view of the bill. Sink’s strategy, which will likely be repeated by her Democratic copartisans this fall, is to advocate keeping the law but agreeing to popular changes. At this point, her views seem to align more closely with a majority of likely voters in the district,” concluded Orlando.