More Untrustworthy Polling In Hawaii

Brian Schatz and his wife Linda, flanked by Hawaii's favorite son and his wife, Michelle

This weekend, the Honolulu Star Advertiser put out another one their absurd polls. This one shows Governor Neil Abercrombie and Senator Brian Schatz losing to conservatives. Some people are interpreting it as blowback against Abercrombie and Schatz because of their outspoken support for same-sex marriage, which has been a big political issue in Hawaii for months, with several of the most reactionary churches threatening hell and damnation. But more likely, it's just a faulty poll based on a small sample which skewered the ethnic mix. And the Star-Advertiser? Please. Recall this poll they did last cycle:

With less than two weeks before the primary election, the poll results are in for both congressional districts of the U.S. House.

According to the Hawaii News Now/Honolulu Star Advertiser Hawaii Poll, former Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann is still leading the Democratic primary race for the second congressional district with 43 percent.

However, Honolulu city council member Tulsi Gabbard is within striking distance at 33 percent… The margin of error is 5.3 percent.

Less than two weeks, huh? 5.3% margin of error? Reality on the day after the primary:

• Tulsi Gabbard- 62,882 (55%)
• Mufi Hannemann- 39,176 (34%)

Ward Research, the same firm that the Star-Advertiser hired to poll the Gabbard-Hannemann primary also polled the Senate and gubernatorial races last week. The more dependable Mellamn Group-- which accurately polled for Gabbard, as well as for Senators Inouye and Akaka, says the demographic model in the Star Advertiser poll "is at least 10-12 years out of date." Hanabusa's own poll-- as well as Schatz's-- show Schatz ahead. Last week Mellman released polling that showed Schatz ahead and with momentum.

With six months to go until the Democratic Primary election, U.S. Senator Brian Schatz has moved into the lead over Congresswoman Colleen Hanabusa in the race for Hawaii’s Senate seat. Moreover, among those who have already had the chance to weigh and measure both candidates, Schatz’s lead expands to double-digits, suggesting he is already successfully making his case to Hawaii voters.

Senator Brian Schatz now holds a
narrow lead over Congresswoman
Colleen Hanabusa in the Democratic
Primary for U.S. Senate (41%
Schatz, 37% Hanabusa). Since our
previous poll, which was conducted
in June 2013, Schatz’s share of the
vote has increased by 4 points, from
37% to 41%, while Hanabusa’s
support has remained static at 37%.
Moreover, Hanabusa’s support is
less intense than Schatz’s, as a far
greater share of her voters are
actually undecided and merely
leaning in her direction. Among
those who initially say they support
one candidate or the other, Schatz
leads by a 10-point margin (37%
Schatz, 27% Hanabusa). Thus, Hanabusa’s vote is buoyed to a far greater degree than Schatz’s by tenuous supporters.

Among the roughly three-quarters of the electorate (76%) that knows both candidates, Schatz holds a double- digit lead over Hanabusa (48% Schatz, 37% Hanabusa), suggesting that those who have had the opportunity to evaluate both candidates are choosing Schatz.

Based on those same issues Hawaii voters prefer Schatz for, Blue America has endorsed him-- as have Elizabeth Warren, Sherrod Brown, Jeff Merkley, Barbara Boxer and MoveOn. You can contribute to Brian's campaign here on the Blue America Senate page.