How Many Republican Congressmen Will Lose Their Careers Over Racism?

Another poll came out yesterday, this one from the Public Religion Research Institute, showing overwhelming support by Americans for comprehensive immigration reform. Bottom line: 63% of Americans favor a path to citizenship-- including 60% of grassroots Republicans! Opposition comes from two places: overt racists and the Republican House leadership. We'll get back to that in a moment.

Throughout 2013, there has been consistent bipartisan and cross-religious support for creating a path to citizenship for immigrants living in the United States. Today, 63% of Americans favor providing a way for immigrants who are currently living in the United States illegally to become citizens provided they meet certain requirements, while 14% support allowing them to become permanent legal residents but not citizens, and roughly 1-in-5 (18%) favor a policy that would identify and deport all immigrants living in the United States illegally. This support for a path to citizenship has remained unchanged from earlier this year, when in both March and August 2013 an identical number (63%) supported a path to citizenship for immigrants currently living in the United States illegally.

• Roughly 6-in-10 Republicans (60%) and independents (57%) and approximately 7-in- 10 (73%) Democrats favor a path to citizenship for immigrants currently living in the United States illegally.
• Majorities of white evangelical Protestants (55%), white mainline Protestants (60%), Catholics (62%), minority Protestants (69%), and the religiously unaffiliated (64%) also favor a path to citizenship for immigrants currently living in the United States illegally.

Despite having different experiences with immigrants, there is remarkable consistency in support for immigration reform policy across key states.

• Roughly 6-in-10 Ohioans (60%), Floridians (61%), and Arizonans (64%) favor a path to citizenship for immigrants currently living in the United States illegally.
• More than 6-in-10 (61%) Americans favor the DREAM Act, which would allow immigrants brought illegally to the United States as children a way to attain legal resident status by joining the military or going to college, while 34% oppose. The profiles of Ohio (60% favor, 34% oppose), Arizona (64% favor, 36% oppose), and Florida (64% favor, 33% oppose) residents look nearly identical to all Americans on this question.

...Using a controlled survey experiment, PRRI found survey questions that make no mention of requirements immigrants living in the country illegally must meet produce lower support for a path to citizenship than questions that do mention requirements, especially among more conservative groups such as Republicans and white evangelical Protestants.

• When there is no mention of requirements that immigrants living in the country illegally must meet, nearly 6-in-10 (59%) Americans support a path to citizenship.
• When the question mentions “certain requirements” that immigrants living in the country illegally must meet, nearly 7-in-10 (68%) Americans support a path to citizenship.
• When the question references specific requirements such as paying back taxes, learning English, and passing a background check, 71% support a path to citizenship.

There is general consensus across religious and political lines that the proposed 13-year waiting period is too long. Nearly 7-in-10 (68%) Americans feel that a 13-year waiting period for someone to receive citizenship is too long, roughly one-quarter (24%) say this length of time is about right, and only 5% report that it is too short.

The Senate already passed a broadly bipartisan comprehensive immigration bill, supported by every Democrat and all but the most die-hard racist extremists among the GOP. But now Boehner refuses to take it up in the House, where he knows it will pass. There are 3 Republicans co-sponsoring the bill he's blocking in the House-- and more than enough other Republicans to pass it. Pro-immigrant groups say this all comes down to Boehner's conscience and they're pressuring him from that perspective. Does that kind of think work with severe alcoholics like Boehner? I doubt it.

In the last few weeks, Boehner has become the main target for activists supporting reform. There have been protests in front of his home on Capitol Hill calling for him to put the bill to a vote. At his favorite breakfast diner, he has had dawn lectures from young people who have grown up in the United States, love the nation and consider it their country, but have no way to become citizens.

The activists remind Boehner of the growing Latino vote in even the whitest southern congressional districts. The GOP needs them to win statewide and national elections.

“If Boehner kills off immigration reform, he’s going to go down as the Speaker who helped kill off the GOP,” Frank Sharry, director of a Washington, DC immigration reform group, America’s Voice, said in a recent interview.

Vice President Biden is also pointing at Boehner: “He will not allow the House to play by fair play-- the American way, to let the Congress actually vote their conscience to fix a broken system,” he has said.

“I’ve talked to Speaker Boehner and he’s totally committed to this,” former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, a Republican proponent of reform said last week. “But he needs to find a way to get enough of the support [from his members].”

There's a lot of fasting going on but it's more likely that pressure on senior Republicans in their own districts is what will move Boehner. Take one of his top lieutenants, House Armed Services Committee chairman, Buck McKeon, a Mormon and a virulent racist. Last year he lost the third of his Southern California district, for the first time, known as the Antelope Valley, an area where Latinos and Asians are becoming a larger percentage of the voting base. The Democrat who ran against him in 2012, Lee Rogers, is also his opponent next year. And he's putting tremendous energy into voter registration, not just in the Antelope Valley but also in the Santa Clarita area where Latinos and Asians are also very strong. The Ventura County Democrats are registering voters in Simi Valley as well. McKeon-- and his racism-- are being swamped.

The Catholic Church, which is an important force in CA-25, has also been bringing tremendous pressure on McKeon to put the bigotry aside and rio what's right for his own constituents. It's a familiar story throughout California. Last month, Joe Garofoli explained it in the San Francisco Chronicle, focusing in on three top Boehner henchmen: Kevin McCarthy, Darrell Issa and McKeon.

We’ve told you before about how GOP House Whip Kevin McCarthy is in a weird place on immigration reform. He’s gotta play the loyal No. 3 guy in charge and not rock the “no pathway to citizenship” boat that Speaker John Boehner is helming. Yes, even though McCarthy’s Bakersfield district is 35 percent Latino and even the local farmers want reform.

A new poll to be released Thursday by America’s Voice that we got our hands on early has a message for McCarthy: It’s OK to support a pathway to citizenship. Your constituents will still love you. The poll’s message to GOP Reps. Darrell Issa and Buck McKeon was largely the same thing.

In McCarthy’s district, where he enjoys 56 percent job approval, 45 percent would have a MORE favorable impression of him if he supported something like HR 15 (which includes a pathway to citizenship), 24 percent would have a less favorable impression and 27 percent said it would make no difference how they feel about K-Mac.

By the way, the poll found that roughly three in four Republicans in McCarthy’s district favor a pathway.

“They have nothing to fear. Their most loyal supporters won’t leave them over this,” said Patty Kupfer, Managing Director at America’s Voice, an advocacy group based in Washington, D.C. “It’s for the future of their party. If they can’t see what’s happening to the Republican Party in California, well, they should find a new job.”

These charts by Latino Decisions show polling in the congressional districts by four of California's most adamant racists who are part of Boehner's inner circle: McKeon, Ed Royce (Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee), Gary Miller (one of the wealthiest and most corrupt Republicans in Congress), and Ken Calvert. All are Boehner loyalists-- and all are in danger of losing their seats by antagonizing their own constituents. None of them support citizenship or the DREAM Act and none are cosponsoring comprehensive immigration reform. All are in districts with rapidly growing immigrant populations in which immigrants and their children are becoming eligible and are registering to vote in great numbers.