Sunday, November 17, 2013

Duck Dynasty Beats Cantor And Boehner In Louisiana Congressional Race

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People pay less attention to politics in one-party states. And with the decline of the Louisiana Democratic Party following the 1964 Civil Rights bill, that state has become more and more of a right-wing Republican bastion. African Americans dominate one (of 6) congressional districts, LA-02, basically New Orleans and the black neighborhoods on the north side of Baton Rouge, 80 miles away. That shockingly gerrymandered district attempts to pack as many African-Americans (and Democrats) into one district as possible and it is 63% African American (the state is 32% African American). Louisiana went for Romney over Obama 58-41% but LA-02 went for Obama with 76%. The PVI of the district is D+23.

LA-05 has a PVI of R+15. Saturday there was a congressional runoff election there that I bet you didn't even know was taking place. Vance McAllister is America's newest Member of Congress. He's replacing Rodney Alexander, who switched to the GOP in 2004 after first being elected as a Blue Dog Democrat 2 years earlier, and has decided to retire in the middle of his term. Last time Alexander ran for reelection, the Democrats didn't even put up a candidate against him; nor did they in 2010 or 2008. The sprawling district encompasses all of northeastern Louisiana and includes two cities, Monroe and Alexandria. Of the 24 parishes that make up LA-05, Obama won 4, East Carroll, Madison, Tensas and the part of St Helena in the district.

So what happened yesterday? It's being called a big upset by folks in Louisiana and DC who pay attention to obscure congressional races. The winner, McAllister, played up to working class folks rather than the aristocracy. He even advocated for expanding Medicare as long as the GOP couldn't repeal Obamacare-- heresy among most Republican politicians.
"The election of Vance McAllister to Congress in Louisiana's 5th District reflects the appeal of being an outsider in today's poisonous political environment," Mark Kennedy, former Republican congressman from Minnesota and director of the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University, told Newsmax Sunday. "And it demonstrates the power of pop culture to influence political campaigns and the attraction of a businesslike focus on seeking results."

Kennedy was referring to the much-discussed endorsement of businessman and first-time office-seeker McAllister by his friend Phil Robertson, partriach of the "Duck Dynasty" family on the popular A&E reality show.

"Duck Dynasty folks voted for McAllister," former Rep. Bob Livingston, R.-La., told Newsmax, pointing out that the television series about the duck-hunting family is very popular in the Pelican State and that Phil Robertson has a home in Monroe, Louisiana, in the 5th District.

Wealthy businessman McAllister edged out fellow Republican and State Sen. Neal Riser. Both spent roughly $800,000, with McAllister using his own resources exclusively and Riser raising his campaign kitty from political action committees and individual contributors. [DWT Note: that's incorrect. Riser outspent McAllister by around $200,000.]

In a state where candidates compete on the same ballot and the top two vote-getters regardless of party face each other in a run-off if no one wins 50 percent plus one, conservative Republicans Riser and McAllister placed one-two in the initial 14-candidate balloting.

Moreover, Riser was the candidate of both the "establishment" and the "insurgents." Along with having the endorsement of former Republican Rep. Rodney Alexander (who resigned to take a position in GOP Gov. Bobby Jindal's Cabinet), Riser was backed by several tea party groups and FreedomWorks, the national conservative group that supported the recent government shutdown to defund Obamacare.

The candidates disagreed on next-to-nothing. Both were strongly pro-life, pro-marriage, pro-Second Amendment, and opposed Obamacare.

The sole difference, as several published reports noted, was that Riser supported outright repeal while McAllister said repeal would not work until Republicans took the presidency and Senate and instead supported fixing the healthcare measure. A few observers speculated that this convinced some 5th District Democrats (who had no horse in the run-off) to vote for McAllister over Riser.
Riser was the GOP Establishment pick, and Eric Cantor was rallying support for him against McAllister, who had trailed Riser by 12% in the primary. The 54,449 (59.65%) to 36,837 (40.35%) win for McAllister, a rich oil man who spent around half a million dollars of his own on the run-off, is a slap in the face for Cantor and the Establishment. McAllister won because he rolled up huge margins in the district's two cities, Monroe and Alexandria, and in most of the areas there Obama had done best. And Monroe Mayor Jamie Mayo, the Democrat who had finished a strong third in the primary, endorsed McAllister over Riser.

Maybe McAllister watched this video explaining the benefits of expanding Medicaid and perhaps that's why he campaigned on a plank hated by professional Beltway GOP politicians but… apparently not nearly as anathema to actual voters in pretty red districts! Republicans should think this through carefully.



UPDATE: Looks Like The House Has Its Own Version Of Lisa Murkowsky

After Alaska Republicans tried to smother Murkowsky's career by backing Tea Party sociopath Joe Miller, she ran for reelection without the help of the GOP and has charted a very independent course back in the Senate. Vance McAllister is already signaling he's going to be as independent-minded as someone who was elected by a coalition of mainstream conservatives, Democrats and independents should. First up: immigration. He said he believes that there should be a path to citizenship for the undocumented.

McAllister said he would support a path to citizenship for those immigrants already here illegally.

“We have to secure the borders, but (citizenship) has to be attainable for those people already here,” he said. “It has to be a tough path, but it has to be attainable.”

Among the requirements McAllister would advocate: identify yourself; understand and speak English; pay two years in back taxes; obtain a general equivalency diploma; and have a clean criminal record.

“Then we can bring great new citizens to the country,” he said.
And this may well have been the Riser ad that gave McAllister that incredible come-from-behind victory in the heart of Dixie:

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