DownWithTyranny!: Can Boehner Keep His Speakership-- Even One With No Power?

Yesterday, Nancy Pelosi told reporters, when asked, that she was "sure" John Boehner would be able to hold onto his Speakership despite muttering and teeth gnashing on the fringe right of the House Republican caucus. In fact, even the freak the fringe right wants to replace Boehner with, Tim Huelskamp, said he is thinks Boehner isn't going anywhere. Another Kansas subsidiary of Koch Industries, Huelskamp may see a Speaker every time he looks in the mirror, but he's being realistic about 2013-- not that he's happy about it. “I’ll just say: the class of ’94 seems to have a lot more guts and gusto than the class of 2010 because they were willing to take down Speaker [Newt] Gingrich,” Huelskamp told Newsmax TV. “But I don’t see that happening anytime soon in today’s Congress.”

Last week, though, Mother Jones ace reporter, David Corn, broke the news that House Democrats had even offered to provide Boehner the votes he'd need to stay as Speaker if he allowed the House to vote on a Clean CR and the Cruz-ites responded with an attempt to remove him.

About two weeks ago, as tea partiers in the GOP-controlled House were forcing a government shutdown, some House Democrats sent a private and informal message to House Speaker John Boehner: if you need to break with the die-hard conservatives of your caucus to keep the government running and avoid a debt ceiling crisis, we might be able to try to help you protect your speakership, should far-right Republicans rebel and challenge you. This offer was conveyed to Boehner just as he was entering what has turned into the toughest stretch of his speakership, according to two senior House Democratic lawmakers who each asked not to be identified.

…Certainly, Boehner would be loathe to accept any assistance-- even passive help-- from the Democrats. It would compromise him greatly within GOP and conservative circles and dramatically undermine his already diminished ability to control his GOP crew. If it appeared that Boehner had made any common cause with the Ds, a small mutiny could turn into a wider revolt. Instead of retaining his speakership due to Democratic machinations, Boehner might well prefer to skedaddle to days of well-paid lobbying and nights of fine wine.

So how did Boehner respond to the message? "He said, 'I'll get back to you,'" a senior House Democrat says. Asked to comment on this informal offer, Boehner's spokesman said, "That's silly."

OK, the House is in utter chaos now, as the above HuffPo front page screen shot from yesterday indicates, and there's little question that Boehner will go down in history as the weakest and most ineffectual Speaker ever. But how's this working out for the Senate? Well, new polling by PPP makes it clear that the public doesn't appreciate the way Cruz and DeMint overplayed their hand and-- as of now-- are planning to take it out on Republican candidates for Senate next year. I'm not saying that we're going to see Democrats elected in Mississippi, Wyoming and Texas, but the half dozen races the GOP was hoping would give them a chance to take control, are fading from their grasp, including some pretty red states.

• In Georgia voters oppose the shutdown 61/31, and it’s just another factor helping make this seat competitive for Democrats next year. Michelle Nunn is knotted with a generic Republican opponent at 42%.

The shutdown will be particularly problematic for the GOP if it nominates one of the House members seeking a promotion to the Senate- 47% of voters say they’re less likely to vote Paul Broun, Phil Gingrey, or Jack Kingston for the Senate because of their support for the shutdown to only 32% who think it’s a positive. After being informed that her most likely opponents were among those House Republicans who favored the shutdown, Nunn improves to a 48/42 lead lead on the generic ballot.

In a pair of key open seat Senate races Democrats are well positioned because voters are mad about the shutdown, and appreciative of the Democratic House members looking to move up who opposed the shutdown:

• In Michigan’s open seat race Democrat Gary Peters leads Republican Terri Lynn Land 43/36. Voters are opposed to the shutdown by a 65/27 margin, and when voters are informed that Peters stood against the shutdown in the House his lead expands to 50/36.

• It’s a similar story in Iowa’s open seat race-- there Democrat Bruce Braley leads a generic Republican opponent 45/41. Voters are against the shutdown 64/27, and when voters are informed of Braley’s opposition his lead goes up to 7 points at 46/39.

In a pair of red states where Republican House members are challenging incumbent Democratic Senators, their support of the shutdown is proving to be a liability:

• In Louisiana Mary Landrieu leads Republican challenger Bill Cassidy 48/41 for reelection. Voters oppose the shutdown 60/30, and 47% say they’re less likely to vote for Cassidy for the Senate next year because he supported it compared to only 32% who are more likely to. Landrieu’s lead grows to 52/42 when voters are informed of Cassidy’s position on the shutdown.

• In Arkansas Mark Pryor leads Republican challenger Tom Cotton 44/41. Voters there oppose the shutdown 59/32. When informed that Cotton supported it, 45% of voters say they’re less likely to support him for a move up to the Senate next year compared to just 33% who say they’re more likely to.

And voters also overwhelmingly oppose the shutdown in the other state we polled:

• In North Carolina Kay Hagan leads a generic Republican 47/42. Voters oppose the government shutdown 63/29, and when they’re informed that she opposed it as well her lead over a generic opponent increases to 49/41.

These polls make it clear that across the country, whether a state voted for Obama by 10 points or voted for Romney by 20, voters are extremely angry about the government shutdown. And it’s going to make Republican hopes of taking back the Senate next year that much harder.