Boehner Says There Aren't Enough Republicans To Pass A Clean CR And Dems Say There Are. Who's Right?

Democrats, from President Obama (who has no relation with House Republicans and doesn't know much more about it than any of us do) to Nancy Pelosi, say there are enough Republicans and Democrats-- 217-- to pass a clean CR. Long Island Republican Peter King agrees. Let's say that the 5 right-wing Democrats who refused to sign Pelosi's letter to Boehner calling for a clean CR-- John Barrow (New Dem-GA), Mike McIntyre (New Dem-NC), Jim Cooper (New Dem-TN), Jim Matheson (Blue Dog-UT) and Ron Kind (New Dem-WI)-- can be persuaded to vote for it, a reasonable, though not iron-clad assumption. Monday a member of the Democratic House leadership, no doubt hoping to incite me, e-mailed me that these are the 5 worst Democrats in the House and pointed out that Cooper and Kind are in D+5 districts. I mentioned to him that his buddy Steve Israel keeps Barrow, McIntyre and Matheson in Congress with massive DCCC spending and that all 3 would lose without DCCC money, giving the leadership leverage they never use. But for the sake of this argument we're assuming that, for whatever reason, the 5 bad Democrats vote for the Clean CR.

That means 17 Republicans are needed. There have been public statements that 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, and 24 Republicans have committed. Last night Rachel read some of the statements on her show (above). She read statements and showed some of the tweets from these galoots:

• Pat Meehan (R-PA)
• Scott Rigell (R-VA)
• Jon Runyan (R-VA)
• Mike Fitzpatrick (R-PA)
• Lou Barletta (R-PA)
• Peter King (R-NY)
• Charlie Dent (R-PA)
• Frank Wolf (R-VA)
• Michael "Mikey Suits" Grimm (R-NY)
• Erik Paulsen (R-MN)
• Rob Wittman (R-VA)
• Frank LoBiondo (R-NJ)
• Randy Forbes (R-VA)
• Jim Gerlach (R-PA)
• Leonard Lance (R-NJ)
• Mike Simpson (R-ID)
• Bill Young (R-FL)
• Mario Diaz-Balart (R-FL)
• Richard Hanna (R-NY)
• Tim Griffin (R-AR)
• Don Young (R-AK)
• Dennis Ross (R-FL)

The bolded names belong to congressmen whose districts Obama won in 2008 and/or 2012. Rachel says, definitively that "the votes are there?" But are they really? I don't think so. She goes on to say that "Unless these Members of Congress are telling their local press, telling their constituents and tweeting and putting out press releases saying they're going to do something that they're not actually going to do, the votes are there. And we know who they are. It's not a mysterious, esoteric, ascribing of votes to people who we think might be there; it's Members of Congress, by name committing to do it. It's called arithmetic… the votes are there. Math will not lead you astray; it works every time.

At the same time Rachel was reading her list on MSNBC, ABC was reporting that some of the Republicans had already changed their minds. "Four other GOP members-- Reps. Devin Nunes, R-Calif., Mike Simpson, R-Idaho, Leonard Lance, R-N.J., and Randy Forbes, R-Va.-- had previously been on record in support of a clean CR, but said today either their previous positions were misconstrued or they had changed their minds." Nunes, the guy who called his Tea Party colleagues "lemmings with suicide vests" and who wants to run for statewide office in California, would rather snipe from the sidelines than do anything to fix the problem. He's not about arithmetic; he's about political cowardice. His Central Valley district has a PVI of R+10 and the only challenge he could conceive of to dislodge him from Congress would be from a teabagger. Simpson, Leonard and Forbes are also in red districts that Obama lost in both 2008 and 2012 and all fear primaries from the right. The good news from ABC, backed up my own supposition, above, that the 5 renegade right-wing Democrats will actually vote for a Clean CR.

If you're wondering why so many Virginians are on these lists, it's because the upcoming gubernatorial election has roiled the politics of the state. Ted Cruz has been there campaigning for Cuccinelli and the Cooch's already failing campaign started sinking even more as Cruz made speeches and appearances on his behalf.

Both McAuliffe and Cuccinelli have spoken out against the shutdown. The Democrat has run ads tying Cuccinelli to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, the so-called defund Obamacare champion, while Cuccinelli has accused McAuliffe of risking a shutdown in Richmond with his give-no-quarter support for Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act.

They have good reason to run in that direction: A full 62 percent of poll respondents said they oppose the government “shutting down over funding for the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare.” Thirty-one percent said they support the shutdown.

Of the Virginia voters who oppose the shutdown, nearly two-thirds-- 64 percent-- support McAuliffe while 16 percent support Cuccinelli, and 12 percent back Sarvis. Shutdown supporters prefer Cuccinelli over McAuliffe, 73 percent to 10 percent with 11 percent for Sarvis.

National Republicans take the greater share of blame from Virginians for the lights-out moment in Washington: Fifty percent of respondents said they blame Republicans in Congress most for the shutdown while 35 percent said they primarily blame President Barack Obama and Senate Democrats. Fifteen percent of likely voters in the poll said they blame both sides equally.

Democratic and Republican voters largely pin the blame on the other party, but independent voters blame congressional Republicans over Obama and Senate Democrats, 48 percent to 33 percent.

…Cruz, who boosted Cuccinelli at a conservative event in Richmond last weekend, is an unpopular figure in Virginia. He was viewed unfavorably by 45 percent of poll respondents while 26 percent had a favorable opinion of the Texas Republican.

Anyone surprised by this, doesn't pay much attention

If Boehner puts a Clean CR vote up today and he and Cantor whip against it, I doubt it would pass. If the Democrats manage to come up with a way to get it to the floor despite Boehner's control of the floor-- they've failed so far but have two more aces up their sleeves-- I think it would also fail. Republicans, other than Peter King, will not break ranks with their party, no matter what Rachel's math says. That's not how they operate. I can't talk about one of the aces yet but everyone knows about Chris Van Hollen's discharge petition already. It will probably fail, but it's still worth doing, as Greg Sargent pointed out:

“The local press will be asking them whether they will sign this discharge, and if not, why not,” Van Hollen says. “You’re gonna see an effort to get local media to hold them accountable.”

Pressed on whether Dems can really get the 18 or 20 House Republicans they need to sign the discharge petition, Van Hollen said: “If every member who has said they’d vote for a clean CR signs it, then we get to 218. If we can build the pressure, we can get there, but it will require an organized effort.”

“This is an opportunity to get all the folks who have publicly stated they want to vote now to put their signatures where their mouths are,” Van Hollen added. And he said that history showed that Speakers can sometimes find themselves forced to act if the numbers on such a petition are mounting-- whether or not they get up to 218.

“A discharge petition is a clear signal a Speaker has lost control of the floor,” he said. “It forces them to take action. You can’t hide from a discharge petition.” However, today, one moderate Republican who has said he wants a vote on a clean CR clarified he would not sign a discharge petition.

And from the never-helpful DCCC: