Republicans Can't Fire Boehner-- He's Quitting

A few days ago we reported that Pelosi admitted she doesn't want to be Speaker again. She's tried to put the toothpaste back in the tube but... well, that never works. But you know who else doesn't want the job? Boehner's done. There's an argument to be made that Pelosi was one of the most effective Speakers in modern times-- and an argument that Boehner was the least effective. He hasn't made any announcements yet but Ryan Grimm had the scoop:

Former aides to John Boehner and other high-level GOP operatives are increasingly convinced that the House speaker will step aside after the 2014 midterm elections, according to interviews with a dozen Republican sources.

All summer, rumors have been swirling around the Hill and K Street that the speaker has had enough and that 2014 would be his last year with the gavel. Then the message went out in July: Boehner (R-Ohio) is not leaving.

Boehner told his inner circle at dinner that there was no truth to the talk, and authorized his people to spread the word around town. A story appeared in Politico the next day, reaffirming Boehner's stated commitment to stay past 2014.

"These inside-the-Beltway parlor games take place every two years. The speaker has made clear publicly he intends to remain in his position in the next Congress," Boehner spokesman Michael Steel told HuffPost.

But not everyone close to the 63-year-old speaker is so sure. "He has to say that. He can't not say that. The minute you say [you're leaving], you're done," said one former GOP leadership aide who is part of Boehner's circle. "Everybody around him thinks this is his last term."

Despite the effort by Boehner to tamp down speculation that he will depart the House after the 2014 midterms, multiple cooks in Boehner's kitchen cabinet think the Republican is still strongly considering making his exit just over a year from now.

"I'd be surprised if he did [stay]," said one former senior aide to Boehner, who, like many consulted for this article, spoke on condition of anonymity to protect their relationships. (HuffPost spoke to four top former Boehner aides, two current aides, five former leadership aides close to Boehner's inner circle, and a GOP operative on familiar terms with his circle.)

Boehner has plenty of reasons to make this coming year his last, but one may be more compelling than the others: It's not at all clear he could win. His deputy, Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va.), is not expected to challenge him, but during the last election a bloc of insurgent tea partyers threatened to derail Boehner's election by depriving him of the 218 votes he needs to hold the gavel. The insurgents pulled back a bit, and Boehner won the speakership with 220 votes. "He barely won the last one and that group of opposition has only grown," said one former leadership aide. "The ones who were in on it and got cold feet basically gave him a reprieve. They won't be willing to do that again."

Only three more tea partyers would need to join the effort to block his next reelection-- hardly a difficult feat, given the challenges Boehner presently faces: a vote on military action in Syria, immigration reform, a government shutdown and a debt ceiling standoff, all in the context of a full-scale effort to stop the implementation of Obamacare, which Boehner is entirely powerless to do.

"It's probably not up to him," said one GOP operative. "The natural assumption is that he leaves. It's the overwhelming, working assumption as people are making strategy going into 2015 and 2016."

Given the difficulty of retaining the gavel, plus the scant prospect for a so-called grand bargain later in the midst of a presidential election year, stepping down after the midterms would allow Boehner to leave on his own terms.

Boehner's intention to step down after this cycle or the next changes what has been the conventional wisdom since 2010, namely, that Boehner is doing all he can to stay atop the wild tiger that is his tea party caucus. But if Boehner is looking for his exit, that reduces the power that his conference has over him to some degree.

The assumption that Boehner's departure is imminent has set off a round of jockeying for the positions that would open up. The current power structure includes an ad hoc leadership-in-waiting, consisting of five conservatives who serve as a go-betweens for the leadership and the tea party. Getting the blessing of that group is usually the first step toward getting broader tea party buy-in. According to GOP sources, this group includes Reps. Jeb Hensarling (Texas), Jim Jordan (Ohio), Paul Ryan (Wis.), Tom Price (Ga.) and Steve Scalise (La.). All but Ryan have chaired the Republican Study Committee, the bloc of arch-conservatives in the House. Much of the speculation has focused on Hensarling, chairman of the Financial Services Committee, who is considered a viable candidate for either speaker or majority leader. Price, who lost a leadership race last round to Rep. Cathy McMorris-Rodgers (Wash.), is considered a viable challenger to current Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (Calif.).

Pretty damning that the Democrats don't even have a battle brewing once Pelosi makes it official-- other than a fight between corrupt conservative careerists with no policy or ideological predispositions... other than "more of the same." Democrats will try to not rock any boats and figure out who gets the top job between two of their worst members, Steny Hoyer and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (Frankenstein vs the Werewolf). And, in the end, it will all comes down to who raises the most corrupt money from special interests and spreads it around the caucus most effectively. Are their differences between the two parties? You bet... but are there differences between the two Beltway power structures. Ehhh... a "D" is a little better than an "F," but who really cares?