Sunday, September 01, 2013

In 2012 Only Conservative Incumbents Lost Their House Seats


Leaving out redistricting's incumbent vs incumbent primaries, in 2012 only 22 incumbents lost their House seats. Not one of them was a progressive. Every single one of them was a conservative. Only two Democrats were challenged by non-incumbents in primaries, Blue Dog Tim Holden (PA) and ConservaDem Silvestre Reyes (TX). Both were defeated by significantly more progressive Democrats, respectively Matt Cartwright and Beto O'Rourke, each of whom went on to win landslide victories in the general election. In Republicanville, three conservatives lost reelection to non-incumbents in primaries, Cliff Stearns (FL), Mean Jean Schmidt (OH) and John Sullivan (OK); all three winners, respectively Ted Yoho, Brad Wenstrup and Jim Bridenstine are crackpot teabaggers who have tended to stand up against the GOP conservative Establishment whenever it was challenged by populist right reactionaries and extremists.

In the general elections, half a dozen Democrats lost their seats to Republicans. Although one, Betty Sutton (OH) was a moderate, the other 5 were out-and-out conservatives who voted with the GOP too frequently to keep base support in their districts. The conservative Democrats who lost their seats to Republicans:
Leonard Bosell (Blue Dog-IA)
Ben Chandler (Blue Dog-KY)
Kathy Hochul (New Dem-NY)
Larry Kissell (Blue Dog-NC)
Mark Critz (PA)
Three other extreme right-wing Democrats-- Dan Boren (Blue Dog-OK), Heath Shuler Blue Dog-NC) and Mike Ross (Blue Dog-AR)-- could all read the handwriting on the wall and each chose to retire from the House rather than be humiliated by certain defeat. In the general election, their handpicked Blue Dog would-be successors were defeated-- crushed is a more appropriate term-- by Republicans.

The 16 Republicans who lost their seats to Democrats were all conservatives or reactionaries. In every case, the winning Democrat campaigned on a far more progressive platform than the Republican's voting record. Although a few of the Republicans were mainstream conservatives-- like Mary Bono Mack, Robert Dold, Judy Biggert, Roscoe Bartlett and Nan Hayworth, many were among the most radical right extremists in Congress, such as Allen West, Joe Walsh, Ann Marie Buerkle and Frank Guinta. These were the 16 Republicans who were beaten by Democrats last year:
Dan Lungren (CA)
Mary Bono Mack (CA)
Brian Bilbray (CA)
Allen West (FL)
David Rivera (FL)
Joe Walsh (IL)
Robert Dold (IL)
Judy Biggert (IL)
Bobby Schilling (IL)
Roscoe Bartlett (MD)
Chip Cravaack (MN)
Frank Guinta (NH)
Charlie Bass (NH)
Nan Hayworth (NY)
Ann Marie Buerkle (NY)
Quico Canseco (TX)
What about 2014? Almost all the endangered incumbents are conservatives. Of the 20 most endangered Democratic incumbents, 18 are conservatives, the exceptions being John Tierney (MA) and Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH). These are the Democratic incumbents most likely to lose their seats next year. I've included their 2013 ProgressivePunch crucial vote score. Each of these Members votes more frequently with the GOP than their constituents would like to see. If their Democratic base voters stay away from the polls next year, all will lose to Republicans. Each has taken the horrendous advise from the DCCC that they will win by amassing a Republican-lite record. None of them has earned reelection:
Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ)- 45.74
Ron Barber (AZ)- 26.80
Kyrsten Sinema (AZ)- 40.62
Raul Ruiz (CA)- 42.31
Scott Peters (CA)- 54.81
Patrick Murphy (FL)- 52.94
Joe Garcia (FL)- 47.42
John Barrow (GA)- 21.15
Brad Schneider (IL)- 61.54
Bill Enyart (IL)- 55.77
Cheri Bustos (IL)- 47.00
Ann Kuster (NH)- 69.90
Sean Patrick Maloney (NY)- 32.69
Bill Owens (NY)- 27.88
Mike McIntyre (NC)- 31.37
Pete Gallego (TX)- 34.95
Jim Matheson (UT)- 25.96
Nick Rahall (WV)- 43.27
And the Republican incumbents most at risk-- obviously all conservatives-- are Gary Miller (CA), Jeff Denham (CA), David Valadao (CA), Buck McKeon (CA), Mike Coffman (CO), Steve Southerland (FL), Rodney Davis (IL), Fred Upton (MI), Kerry Bentivolio (MI), Tim Walberg (MI), John Kline (MN), Joe Heck (NV), "Mikey Suits" Grimm (NY), Chris Gibson (NY), Tom Reed (NY), David Joyce (OH), and Mike Fitzpatrick (PA). There would be many more if Steve Israel, another ConservaDem, were kicked out of the DCCC chairmanship.

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At 5:00 AM, Anonymous me said...

There would be many more if Steve Israel, another ConservaDem, were kicked out of the DCCC chairmanship.

Thanks for nothing, Nancy Pelosi.


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