I Have To Stop Mixing Up Natalie Merchant And Natalie Tennant-- Until The Latter Proves She's As Worthwhile As The Former

A couple of weeks ago the Charleston Daily Mail speculated that if West Virginia Secretary of State Natalie Tennant enters the race for the open Senate seat, the Democrats will have a chance to hold onto it. Citing a telephone survey, they said Republican Shelley Moore Capito got the thumbs up from 45% of the voters and Tennant from 40% (which is within the margin of error), with 15% unsure. Yesterday it became clear that Tennant will be running, probably officially announcing her candidacy Tuesday.

The Republicans are already trying to paint her as a raging liberal. The DSCC is pushing her as a "fiscal conservative." At this point, there's no way to know where she really stands on key issues. Although West Virginia has been trending deeply red in presidential elections for a long time now, that isn't the only way to look at this state. Yes, Obama lost to Romney in a landslide, 412,406 (62%) to 234,925 (36%) on the same day Democrat Joe Manchin won another term as senator 394,532 (61%) to John Raese's 237,825 (36%) and Democrat Earl Ray Tomblin beat Bill Maloney for the governorship 331,116 (50%) to 299,682 (46%). Surprised? They may not like Obama but Democrats continue to maintain a nearly two to one voter registration advantage over Republicans in West Virginia.

  Obama lost all 55 counties in West Virginia! He didn't even win in the most Democratic areas. Manchin, on the other hand, swept every county in the state but three hardcore GOP bastions way up north. Tomblin had a more mixed result, winning 35 counties and losing 20. Tomblin won the 2 biggies, Kanawha (Charleston) and Cabell (Huntington). It's not likely Tennant will do as well as Manchin but she'll be working hard to duplicate Tomblin's results.