Can The Democrats Win Back The House Next Year? It's Up To Nancy Pelosi-- She Has To Make The Decision

Not the path to victory in 2014... or ever

The National Memo lists 5 reasons Republicans are beginning to worry they could lose the House in 2014. The reasons are sound. But... Steve Israel is still the head of the DCCC and it's almost as though he were working from inside the make sure the Democrats never take back the House. The Democrats never will take the House back as long as Israel controls the DCCC.

In his analysis Jason Sattler acknowledges that the number of competitive districts is extremely low-- the lowest at least since 1988. "After the Republican landslide of 2010, the party’s leaders redistricted the congressional map so effectively that even though they received 1.4 million fewer votes than Democratic House candidates in 2012, they still kept a 17-seat majority in the House. And even without yogic gerrymandering, Americans have naturally gerrymandered themselves." And Democrats gerrymander themselves by living mostly in big cities. But these are the 5 reasons Republicans are worrying:

• Seniors are fed up with the GOP

• The GOP has lost the battle over immigration reform and has aliented millions of Hispanic voters

• Republican voter suppression is backfiring

• House Republicans are incompetent and have proven they are incapable of governing

• Obamacare:

What if the thing Republicans spent years demonizing turns out to be a lifesaver for tens of millions of Americans? It’s already happened for former Republican congressional staffer Clint Murphy.

The cancer survivor was recently denied health insurance because of his sleep apnea. That was too much. After years of fighting the Democratic agenda, he went on Facebook and told his conservative friends what he thought about their never-ending effort to destroy Obamacare: “When you say you’re against it, you’re saying that you don’t want people like me to have health insurance.”

To many, this kind of experience suggests that self-interest is the only way to convince Republicans that all Americans need health insurance. But self-interest when it comes to health insurance isn’t to be dismissed lightly.

“Health insurance isn’t like other forms of insurance,” writes Bloomberg‘s Ezra Klein. “It’s not protection against the unlikely; it’s insulation against the inevitable. Most people never use their fire insurance. Almost everyone uses their health insurance. Eventually.”

The New York Times‘ Paul Krugman keeps saying that the Republicans’ biggest fear is going to come true: Obamacare will work.

This may be wishful thinking but keep in mind that 26 million Americans will be getting tax credits to help them buy insurance. Many of them have no idea that this assistance is coming. Millions more will get completely subsidized Medicaid and millions more will find out that they could be getting Medicaid if the Republicans in their state would just take the coverage their residents will be paying for.

There’s no doubt that there will be hurdles (and roadblocks put up by Republicans). The right is going to blame every splinter in every tongue depressor on Obamacare. But there are literally tens of millions of opportunities for Americans to be better off because of this law. If just a fraction of the Americans who can benefit do, gratitude for the Democrats who passed it or anger at the Republicans who have spent years trying to repeal the law with no replacement to offer could be enough to change the electorate in ways we cannot fathom today.

And that brings us back to the "but." The DCCC is not doing a good job recruiting candidates. Steve Israel's aversion to taking on his old "frat brothers" from the Center Aisle Caucus-- often in the most vulnerable districts-- makes it impossible to win back a majority. Every one of Sattler's 5 reasons may be spot on-- but if Steve Israel gives free passes to Republicans in purple districts that Obama won-- like Fred Upton in Michigan, Peter King in New York, Frank LoBiondo in New Jersey, Frank Wolf in Virginia, Paul Ryan in Wisconsin and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in Florida-- it's mathematically impossible for the Democrats to triumph. The Democrats can take back the House... but the first step would be for Pelosi to fire Israel and replace him with someone who wants to win. Alan Grayson for example. He's already doing yeoman's work for progressives, helping progressives raise more grassroots campaign funds than the DCCC or any other Members. Pelosi should turn him lose on the Republicans and she'll end her career as Speaker. With Steve Israel as chairman of the DCCC, she'll end her career in frustration, leading an increasingly fractious and conservative Democratic caucus, packed with the corrupt, corporate-oriented Blue Dogs and New Dems favored by Israel and Debbie Wasserman Schultz... and on another planet from Pelosi and grassroots Democrats.