Hanabusa at a Crossroads-- Will It Lead Back to Congress?

Murmurs on the Coconut Wireless

The Hawai'i Democrats have a conservative wing too

If you live in Hawai'i you probably noticed and if you don't, chances are you didn't. But last week, Star-Advertiser columnist Richard Borrecca weighed in on the current state of Rep. Colleen Hanabusa's Senate candidacy-- after the powerful Hawaii Government Employees Association joined the growing coalition of more than twenty unions and progressive organizations that have endorsed Democratic Senator Brian Schatz.

Borrecca, keenly diagnosing Hanabusa, wrote:

"For Hanabusa, the campaign is at something of a crossroads. For it to go forward, she will have to do more to start a discussion about why she wants the Senate seat. While Hanabusa is just as ambitious as Schatz, she has yet to flesh out a reason for the promotion from the House to the Senate."

And Borrecca is a longtime Hanabusa booster! Speculation continues as to why, beyond personal ambition and an apparent sense of personal destiny, Hanabusa chose to force a Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. Does Hanabusa feel "entitled" to the seat, given her association with the late Senator Dan Inouye? Does she simply resent not being chosen to replace Senator Inouye when his Senate seat opened up last December? Is this a grudge match?

Does Hanabusa regret not running for Senate in 2012, when Democrat Mazie Hirono trounced former Republican Governor Linda Lingle to succeed retired Sen. Dan Akaka?

Who really knows? But leave her motivations aside for a minute, and consider this: A growing number of Hawaii activists and politicos-- already frustrated and troubled Hanabusa chose to abandon her CD-1 seat in the U.S. House-- are actively speculating that Hanabusa may eventually abandon her Senate candidacy and re-file as a candidate for Congress. Only one, Honolulu City Councilman Stanley Chang, has filed. Yesterday I asked him if the expected rush of primary opponents were holding off because they suspected Hanabusa would give up the Senate run. He's admits he doesn't understand why no one has entered the race yet but is uncertain about why.

Hanabusa's Senate campaign is not exactly off to the whiz-bang start she likely assumed it would be. Nearly every one of the 24 unions and progressive groups endorsing Schatz for U.S. Senate had previously endorsed Hanabusa for Congress. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has fully embraced Schatz and fellow senators have rallied to his cause. He raised over $1 million in just the first three months of 2013. And Schatz continues to receive favorable reviews from Democrats and progressives as he ably serves Hawai'i in Washington, emboldened by the Senate-seniority "head start" a Hanabusa victory would literally erase. Because of the timing of Senator Inouye's passing and Schatz's ascension to the Senate seat last December, Sen. Schatz leapfrogged a number of his fellow Senators to rank 85th out of 100 in seniority; if anyone else were to replace Schatz, this seniority is non-transferrable. This has always been a big deal in Hawai'i.

To say the least, Schatz's current good standing and performance leave Hanabusa grasping for a legitimate rationale to challenge him.

Moreover and more importantly, Hanabusa's decision to run for Senate has serious consequences for Hawaii: By forsaking her hard-won seat in Congress, Hanabusa has opened the door for a Republican to steal her seat (anyone remember GOPer Charles Djou's 8-month stint as congressman?). Word is, leaders at the DCCC in Washington have Hanabusa's now-open CD-1 seat on their "watch" list-- as if they don't have enough to worry about as Democrats try to win back control of the House.

And Hanabusa's decision to willfully vacate Congress means Hawai'i loses her post as a member of the powerful House Armed Services Committee. Not sure what else needs to be said about that, given the primacy of military operations and construction to Hawaii's economy.

Meanwhile, it's very telling that no discernible field of would-be congressional candidates has truly begun taking shape in CD-01. Given how rare an open seat in Hawaii's small congressional delegation tends to be, you'd expect candidates from both parties to be leaping into the Hanabusa void. There was early interest from Ikaika Anderson, Will Espero, Mark Takai and perennial ConservaDems Ed Case and Mufi Hannemann. Yet, to date, things are eerily quiet on the CD-01 front... just Councilman Chang all alone.

This could be the surest sign that growing talk of Hanabusa abandoning her Senate bid, and seeking re-election to Congress instead, is more than just murmurs on the coconut wireless.

Given where things stand today, going back to the U.S. House may be Hanabusa's best political move. And it would be the best thing for Hawai'i, too. You can contribute to Senator Schatz's reelection campaign here.