Can The Democrats Take A Senate Seat In Georgia? With Barrow Out, It's A Real Possibility

If you thought the Dems got lucky with Akin & Mourdock, wait 'til you meet Paul Broun

Teabaggers decided right-wing senator Saxby Chambliss wasn't pure enough-- after all, with a 1.95 lifetime ProgressivePunch score (and a ZERO for 2013), look how much more conservative he could be voting-- so they threatened him with a primary and he decided to retire. That leaves a Senate seat in a very Republican state up for grabs. Chambliss won in 2008 with 57.5% and in November Romney beat Obama 53-46%. Very Republican-- but not very, very Republican. Chambliss probably wouldn't have had to break a sweat to win reelection. But the teabaggers screwed that up for the RNSC. So now they have two declared candidates, two of the most certifiably insane extremists in Congress-- Paul Straight-From-The-Pit-Of-Hell Broun and Phil Akin-Was-Right Gingrey-- another lunatic (anti-Choice sociopath Karen Handel) threatening to jump in, a more respected right-winger (Tom Price) pulling out and Rove's handpicked Establishment candidate, Steve Kingston, under fore by the extremists for not being conservative enough for the party base. Broun had Kingston in his sites when he said the other Republicans running don't believe in the Constitution, "I believe in the original intent of the Constitution. There’s no other candidate that’s going to get into this race that does. I believe in the Constitution as the Founding Fathers meant it. They believe in a Constitution where government finds all the solutions for all the problems. So there are big differences between me and all the other candidates that can get in this race."

I wish there was more of a difference. But the 4 of them are all crackpots-- and that creates an opening for the Democrats, particularly a Democrat with a respected and beloved name in the state: Nunn. The Republicans, who were dying for weak, pusillanimous Blue Dog shill John Barrow to run, are petrified that Sam Nunn's daughter, Michelle Nunn, will run instead. (The Wall Street Journal announced Barrow's decision to not run as good news for Georgia Democrats.) The DSCC tested candidates against the least extremist of the 4 GOP extremists, Jack Kingston, and they found that Michelle Nunn would have the best chance to win the seat.

The March poll of 800 respondents found Kingston leading Nunn 33 percent to 32 percent, while Kingston led Barrow 33-29.

Barrow announced Tuesday that he would not run for Senate after months of flirting with the idea, and indications are that Nunn's refusal to step aside in a primary was a major reason for his decision. Democrats are now trying to spin Nunn as the superior candidate who can better turn out the base, while Republicans are crowing about how the battle-tested Barrow turned down the DSCC and dampened Democrats' dreams of taking over the seat after the retirement of Republican Saxby Chambliss.

...Nunn, daughter of the former senator Sam Nunn, is the CEO of the volunteer service organization Points of Light. She has not run for office before and is mostly a blank slate to Georgia voters, according to the DSCC poll. She was viewed favorably by 14 percent of respondents and unfavorably by 5 percent. Barrow stood at 18-10 favorable/unfavorable, identical to Kingston and the latest sign of how little-known these members of Congress are outside their districts.

After unspecified "positive and negative messaging" about the candidates was read to the respondents, Nunn pulled ahead of Kingston 37 percent to 34 percent, while Kingston led Barrow 33-32. The AJC was not provided any additional information about the poll, such as how the Democrats performed against the other Republicans in the race.

POLLING UPDATE

On Monday Better Georgia released a poll showing the GOP extremists make the open Senate seat very mich up for grabs. Michelle Nunn would beat Handel substantially and is in position to beat any of the crackpot congressmen the Republicans are looking at.

The survey shows a Republican advantage of 4 percentage points before either party has chosen its candidate. It also shows that in a crowded primary, Republican voters favor the most conservative candidate, Congressman Paul Broun.

Michelle Nunn, the founder and CEO of an international non-profit and the daughter of former United States Senator Sam Nunn, performs best when compared with potential GOP candidate Karen Handel, former Georgia Secretary of State. In a head-to-head match-up of the two women, Nunn draws 47 percent to Handel’s 39 percent. Nunn is tied with Congressman Phil Gingrey at 46 percent for each candidate. The most moderate Republican candidate, Congressman Jack Kingston, performs best against Nunn, 48 percent to 42 percent. None of the Republican candidates top the 50 percent mark when tested against Nunn.

“Georgia voters are growing increasingly tired of status quo conservatives who put ideology before common sense solutions to Georgia’s biggest challenges,” said Better Georgia Executive Director Bryan Long.  “Georgia is simply not a ‘red state’ where the most conservative candidate is assured victory. Anyone who believes otherwise simply has not looked at the data.”