Is Tim Johnson's Retirement A Disaster For The Democrats' Chance To Hold The Majority In The Senate?

Last cycle at this time, no one really thought the retirement of Kent Conrad from the Democratic Senate seat in North Dakota-- a state McCain won with 53% and Romney won with 58%-- would lead to a new Democratic freshman, Heidi Heitkamp. But while Obama's 124,966 votes yielded him 38%, Heitkamp squeaked past Rick Berg 160,752 to 157,758. It was one of the cycle's most stunning results.

In 2008 South Dakota had the same results as North Dakota-- McCain 53%, Obama 45%. In 2012, Obama did marginally better in South Dakota than North Dakota-- 40% as opposed to 38%. But Tim Johnson's announcement this week that he would not seek a 4th Senate term-- which was not totally unexpected-- still comes as a blow to a DSCC that has to defend an awful lot of seats in states Romney won last year, and is now looking at a 5th incumbent retiring.

The two obvious choices South Dakota-- and DC-- Democrats having been talking about to replace Johnson are Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, the former Blue Dog chairwoman who was ignominiously defeated in the 2010 Great Blue Dog Apocalypse, or Johnson's son, U.S. Attorney Brendan Johnson, purportedly a progressive. I first heard that Johnson's son might challenge Herseth Sandlin-- who is dying to get back into politics-- from astute Rapid City Journal political columnist Kevin Woster earlier this month:

Maybe the whole nepotism thing is a big deal. But I tend to think most voters, outside the hard Republican core, would look at Brendan Johnson, if he decided to run, for what he is: a bright, charismatic lawyer with astute political instincts.

He's also a guy who is meticulous about returning his phone calls, even if he can't say much. Funny, you could say much the same about Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, too. Not the returning-phone-calls thing. She's never been very good at that. Or the charismatic thing, either.

SHS isn't nearly as comfortable in conversation, particularly when it involves news reporters' questions,  as Brendan Johnson. He has a compelling mix of his mother's charm and his dad's steely determination.

Herseth Sandlin often comes off as guarded and self protective, in part because you get that way trying to survive as a statewide-elected Democratic in a Republican-leaning state. She's been there, done that, and knows how dicey it is.

She is, however, very bright, and she also has an astute sense of politics, even though she lost touch with a liberal wing that had grown unreasonable in its expectations.

SHS also has a history of winning. And her general political philosophy-- close on most issues to most South Dakotans-- makes her a candidate with a strong reach across independents and into moderate Republicans.

If she can hold on to those pesky liberals in her own party.

Republicans would have us believe that these two Democrats can't stand each other, and that there's a war between the SHS camp and the Johnson camp. They're not drinking buddies, for sure. But a war?

I haven't seen it yet. Maybe I'm too dense, or two focused on the Summit League tourney this weekend or the late-winter hatch on Rapid Creek. (Can you blame me?)

There certainly is some level of competition going on. Maybe even some bristly feelings. But given the state of the Democratic Party in South Dakota, I'd think they'd be celebrating the notion of two competitive candidates lining up for a run.

I also understand why they fear a potentially divisive primary, and why Republicans revel in that thought. It seems like SHS, with her experience and personal connections, would make the most sense from a party perspective to run for the Senate seat in 2014 if Tim Johnson declines.

I have no idea what she's thinking. She's not calling me back, you know. I don't have any more idea what Brendan Johnson is thinking, even though he is calling me back.

Johnson's son, of course, has no voting record to defend. Herseth Sandlin amassed one of the most Republican voting records of any Democrat in Congress during her 6 years in Washington. Although she's probably best known for her vote against healthcare reform, her record is generally abysmal for a Democrat-- anti-gay, anti-environment, and a warmonger... with an A from NRA (and a 92% lifetime score from their PAC) and a rating of ZERO from the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence. And, of course, she was a corporate shill and anti-working family fanatic the whole time she was in Congress. She was 100% in the pocket of the banksters while she served. Her husband, Max Sandlin, a former Texas congressman and another piece of Blue Dog garbage, was defeated by Louie Gohmert and immediately went to work as a lobbyist.

The Hill reported a prediction that Herseth Sandlin and Johnson's son won't run against each other in a primary.

An official with the South Dakota Democratic Party predicted that Sandlin and Johnson’s son would not compete against each other in the primary.

The official, who did not speak for attribution because the senator has not publicly announced a decision, said one of the candidates would likely forgo a Senate race and run for either the House or the governor’s office in 2014.

“I don’t think we’ll have a primary,” the official said, while declining to speculate on which candidate would enter the Senate race.