Can Colbert's Sister Win In South Carolina-- Even Against A Corrupt Philanderer Like Mark Sanford?

In the South, they prefer a sinner who claims to have repented rather than a saint who never sinned. No one can relate to a saint; they're all sinners, struggling with guilt and fearing the hell their preachers use to keep them in bondage. And in their weird religions of self-righteous hatreds-- a kind of "Christianity" utterly devoid of Jesus' message-- they've been taught that no matter how opportunistic and insincere the repentance, it trumps everything else. James Dobson-- the pope of a right-wing s&m religionist cult based in Colorado Springs but appealing primarily to primitive southern neo-Confederates with an overwhelming feeling of having been wronged-- built a ministry, and a personal fortune worth over a hundred million dollars, based on it-- and little else. After winning first place in the South Carolina Republican primary Tuesday, Mark Sanford promised voters he would marry María Belén Chapur, his Argentine mistress.

Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch never really had much of a chance. It's a very Republican district. No Democrat has represented it since 1980-- and it's been gerrymandered in such a way to dump thousands of African-American voters into the 6th district to the west. Last November Romney beat Obama there 58.3% to 40.2%. (Obama beat Romney in the 6th district, 70.9% to 28.1%-- next door neighbors with such divergent views, the truest mark of a partisan gerrymander effort.) From day one, Colbert Busch's only real chance to win was predicated on a Sanford victory in the 15-man Republican primary. That's because Sanford's greatest asset-- his name recognition-- is also, potentially, his greatest liability.

For some reason, National Review's John Fund is warning darkly that Colbert Busch could win, but that's a long shot. If you really want it, Phillip Bump has an extensive run-down on the demographics, but what all you need to know is that Republicans outnumber Democrats 60-40 in the district; it went for Mitt Romney by 18 points; Sanford won more total votes than Colbert Busch Tuesday, even though she got 96 percent of the Democratic vote; and no Democrat has represented the seat since the fairly conservative Mendel Davis lost in 1980.

Sanford's return is proving eerily like his fall: weird to watch, because it feels guiltily like rubbernecking, but also a refreshingly honest performance the likes of which seldom occurs in politics. Back in 2009, once Sanford admitted he hadn't been hiking and 'fessed up to his extramarital affair, the world was treated to one of the oddest, most frank press conferences ever, in which he explained his love for María Belén Chapur, in surprising, squirm-inducing detail. And he showed his resilience then: Despite predictions from almost every quarter that he'd have to step down, Sanford finished out his term as governor before entering the figurative (rather than literal, Appalachian) wilderness, briefly.

During his comeback, sensing the futility of trying to cover it up, he's maintained a similar stance, as Jason Zengerle showed in a great profile in New York. Sanford insists he's learned from his mistakes, but is extremely self-effacing: "I'm anybody but the guy to take marriage lessons from, but you want to treat that marriage as something special and unique and guard it and protect it in a way that I did not." And yet he still does things like ask his ex-wife to run his campaign, just as she did his prior ones. ("I could pay you this time," he offered.)

She passed. But will South Carolina voters-- especially South Carolina women voters? The runoff is April 2 and it is expected to be a very low-turnout affair. This could help former Charleston City Council Member Curtis Bostic, who has backing from evangelical activists and the presumed backing of the last congressman from the district, Senator Tim Scott. Most of the South Carolina congressional delegation cringes at the idea of Sanford but it isn't likely any of them will come out and endorse Bostic (after two had endorsed third-place runner-up Larry Grooms last week). So far the only significant endorsement since Tuesday has come from former state Senator John Kuhn, who finished 6th out of 16 and says he's voting for Bostic-- and that he wouldn't even vote for Sanford in the general election if he wins the primary!

“I think that Curtis Bostic is a great guy. He's honest, he's honorable and he's hard-working, a strict constitutionalist. I got to know him on the campaign trail and like him a lot," Kuhn said. "I'm definitely throwing my support behind Curtis Bostic.

“I will not back Sanford under any circumstances including in the general [election]. That doesn't mean I'd vote for the Democrat either, but I would not back Sanford under any circumstance. I think he's lied too many times to the public of South Carolina.”

...Despite Kuhn’s endorsement of Bostic, it’s unclear whether there’ll be a groundswell of resistance to Sanford by his former opponents.

That may hurt Bostic’s prospects of catching Sanford, who has a major cash and name identification advantage with less than two weeks until the runoff.

South Carolina state Rep. Andy Patrick (R), who finished fifth in the GOP primary, said he jumped into the race partly because he thought Sanford’s run was a bad idea.

But he declined to endorse either candidate in the April 2 runoff and said other GOP state lawmakers in the state have not begun to rally around Sanford or Bostic.

“I’ve been up in [the state capital] Columbia the last two days and don’t really get a sense that anyone is really coalescing around anyone,” Patrick said.

In fact, Sanford has locked up the endorsements of two first-round rivals-- Charleston County School Board member Elizabeth Moffly and businessman Keith Blandford-- though neither won more than 1 percent of the vote.

Patrick said Sanford faces a more difficult task convincing voters in the upcoming special election to rally behind him.

“I don’t know, but a lot of them seem to think that it was a bad idea for [Sanford] to run,” Patrick said. "That is one of the reasons I decided to run."

Teddy Turner, who won a little less than 8 percent of the vote, said Sanford would fare better than Bostic in the general election but declined to endorse either candidate “at this point.”

Turner said he is leaving for spring break with his family and would not be able to contribute, regardless.

Turner said it is difficult to switch from competitor to ally so soon after an election.

“You are fresh off a race where you are running against these guys,” he said. “It’s kind of really hard to kiss and make up.”

In a special election, Turner argued, Sanford’s high name recognition would outweigh the baggage that is associated with his name.

“It certainly hadn’t [hurt] so far,” he said. “Everyone’s got baggage … His is all out there so everybody knows Mark Sanford and knows his baggage. And it doesn’t seem to upset as many people as you would think it would.”

Kuhn disagreed, arguing that Sanford was vulnerable in the primary and would put the seat at risk for the GOP if he wins the runoff.

“Yes, absolutely he's vulnerable in the general. The vast majority of women in the Republican Party won't vote for him, and I'm worried they'll turn around and vote for [Democrat] Elizabeth Colbert Busch against him,” he said.

“Even someone like me who's a party loyalist won't back him, with his ethics violations and spending the state's money to visit his mistress.”

State Sen. Larry Grooms (R), who Bostic narrowly edged to make the runoff, also hasn’t endorsed anyone.

Colbert-Busch is counting on moderate Republicans, Republican women, enthusiastic Democratic turnout-- and her good relationships in the district... including with Republicans. Still, if Sanford just keeps yelling "Obama" and "Pelosi" often enough, it's likely that Republican voters will be unable to resist the hatreds and prejudices that dominate the area's politics.