Democrats Worry About Voter Drop-Off For 2014 Midterms-- They Need To Stop Worrying And Recruit Better Candidates

This week, political science professor and author Tom Schaller shared his insights on midterm voter drop-off at Sabato's Crystal Ball.

It’s no mystery why Democrats generally perform better in presidential years while Republicans tend to excel in midterm cycles: Lower midterm turnouts tend to skew the electorate toward older, white and/or more affluent voters. Given the growing cleavage in recent decades between partisan preferences of white and non-white voters, cyclic differences in racial composition are particularly important.

Since the Census Bureau began collecting data on voting age turnout by race in 1980, white voter turnout is consistently higher in both presidential and midterm cycles. But the racial gap in presidential cycles post-1980 is consistently smaller than the gap in midterm cycles from 1982 onward. The gap is small but significant between non-Hispanic whites and blacks, but much more dramatic between non-Hispanic whites and Hispanics. This overall pattern may be changing, however: For voters under 45, and especially those under 25, and in both midterm and presidential cycles, in the past decade the white/black racial turnout gap has either disappeared or even flipped to a slight turnout advantage for African Americans.

So what, if anything, can Democrats do to drive up turnout in non-presidential cycles?

“There is little to nothing Democrats can do to mitigate the drop-off of turnout among their core constituencies that regularly happens-- like a clock-- when moving from presidential to midterm elections. Indeed, the primary way to stimulate midterm voters who do vote to support Democrats will not be present in 2014: a poorly performing Republican president that Democrats can rally against (e.g., Bush 2006 or Nixon 1974),” George Mason University’s Michael McDonald, one of the nation’s foremost experts on electoral turnout, explained to me via email. “The first step for Democrats is to prevent 2014 from becoming a self-fulfilling prophesy by recruiting quality candidates to run.” McDonald says Democrats will have to look to new strategies, including social media applications. “But, I caution that social media will likely not solve the Democrats’ problems since it failed to prevent the historic Republican landslide in 2010.”

OK, let's take a look at 2010, the year of the Great Blue Dog Apocalypse, during which the Republicans gained 63 seats in the House, the largest seat change since 1948 and, historically, the worst midterm performance for any party since 1938 (when the Democrats lost 72 seats). Recall, that the Democrats took control of the House in the 2006 midterms and expanded their gains in 2008. They went into the 2010 midterms with 257 seats (having won 52.9% of the votes) while the Republicans held 178 seats (having won 42.4% of the votes). In 2010 the Democrats only won 44.8% of the vote, a catastrophic drop off of 8.1% (accounting for that 63 seat loss). So what happened?

Even before the election, 17 Democrats and 20 Republicans announced their retirements. Seven of the retiring Democrats were Blue Dogs who represented deeply red districts. Those seats were as good as ceded to the Republicans. Of the Republicans retiring, only one was in a solid blue district (Delaware)-- and that was the only Democratic pickup among retiring Republicans. An incompetent DCCC failed to hold swing districts that Democrats were leaving (WI-07, WA-03, and failed to win swing districts that Republicans were opening up (IL-10, MI-03, FL-25). So while one Democrat managed to win an abandoned GOP seat (Mike Castle's), 12 Republicans picked up seats of retiring Democrats. Bad way to get the show started. It got worse.

Of the incumbents up for reelection, 2 Democrats replaced 2 Republicans... and 52 Republicans replaced 52 Democrats. Obviously, that was the apocalyptic part of the Great Blue Dog Apocalypse. In district after district, Democratic voters didn't come out to the polls to vote for right-wing Democrats who had spent the previous session backing the Republicans. Many of the Blue Dogs and New Dems who had been recruited by Rahm Emanuel and other corporate Democrats in 2006 and 2008 lost their seats, having been encouraged by Emanuel, Hoyer and other conservatives in the House leadership to abandon progressive and populist principles and try to cater to right-wing narratives. It backfired-- really, really badly. The Blue Dog Caucus essentially ceased to exist. Below is a list of conservative Democrats who lost their seats-- either in head-to-head races with Republicans or by running away from sure defeats by retiring.

• Bobby Bright (Blue Dog-AL)
• Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ)
• Harry Mitchell (Blue Dog-AZ)
• Marion Berry (Blue Dog-AR)
• John Salazar (Blue Dog-CO)
• Betsy Markey (Blue Dog-CO)
• Allen Boyd (Blue Dog-FL)
• Suzanne Kosmas (FL)
• Jim Marshall (Blue Dog-GA)
• Walt Minnick (Blue Dog-ID)
• Melissa Bean (New Dem-IL)
• Debbie Halvorson (IL)
• Bill Foster (New Dem-IL)
• Brad Ellsworth (Blue Dog-IN)
• Baron Hill (Blue Dog-IN)
• Dennis Moore (Blue Dog-KS)
• Charlie Melancon (Blue Dog-LA)
• Frank Kratovil (Blue Dog-MD)
• Bart Stupak (MI)
• Travis Childers (Blue Dog-MS)
• Gene Taylor (Blue Dog-MS)
• Ike Skelton (MO)
• Dina Titus (NV)
• John Adler (NJ)
• Harry Teague (NM)
• Michael McMahon (NY)
• Scott Murphy (NY)
• Dan Maffei (New Dem-NY)
• Bob Etheridge (NC)
• Earl Pomeroy (Blue Dog-ND)
• Steve Driehaus (OH)
• Charlie Wilson (Blue Dog-OH)
• John Boccieri (OH)
• Zack Space (Blue Dog-OH)
• Kathy Dahlkemper (Blue Dog-PA)
• Patrick Murphy (Blue Dog-PA)
• Chris Carney (Blue Dog-PA)
• Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (Blue Dog-SD)
• Lincoln Davis (Blue Dog-TN)
• Bart Gordon (Blue Dog-TN)
• John Tanner (Blue Dog-TN)
• Glenn Nye (Blue Dog-VA)
• Rick Boucher (VA)
• Brian Baird (WA)

With independent voters turning away from Democrats-- supporting them with 51% in 2008 but with a scant 39% in 2010-- and with the Republicans excited and enthusiastic about a Tea Party counterrevolution, Democrats were rightly sickened by many of their own candidates and stayed away from the polls in big enough numbers not just to defeat ConservaDems but to help create a media narrative that Democrats were losers, helping bring down mainstream Democrats like Phil Hare (IL), Mary Jo Kilroy (OH), Ciro Rodriguez (TX), Carol Shea-Porter (NH), Alan Grayson (FL), Ron Klein (FL), John Spratt (SC), Jim Oberstar (MN), Chet Edwards (TX), and John Hall (NY).

Better handling of social media isn't going to save the Democrats' asses in 2014. Good solid populist recruitment, on the other hand, could. But Pelosi-- for whatever reason-- reappointed "ex"-Blue Dog Steve Israel as head of the DCCC and the party's chances are probably doomed. Israel is likely to again sabotage progressives and populists and again back reactionaries who are hated by Democratic voters. Boehner can certainly look forward to another couple years as Speaker after 2014. What a tragedy!