There's A Real Race In North Dakota-- But It Should Be A Slam-Dunk

Blue America is helping to raise campaign funds for 3 people seeking Senate seats this cycle-- but that doesn't mean there aren't other important races this cycle. I just never really expected that one of them would be in North Dakota. That race pits a corrupt right-wing multimillionaire and extremist freshman, Rick Berg, against a highly respected and admired former Attorney General, Heidi Heitkamp. But this is one very red state we're talking about... right? After all, in 2008 McCain beat Obama 168,601 (53%) to 141,278 (45%) and in 2010 the Great Blue Dog Apocalypse swept away 8 term incumbent Earl Pomeroy, now a sleazy corporate lobbyist. Berg beat him 129,802 (54.7%) to 106,542 (44.9%). But despite the fact that North Dakota hasn't awarded its electoral votes to a Democratic presidential candidate since LBJ (1964), the at-large House seat has been in Democratic hands since 1981. Nor have the Republicans held a North Dakota Senate seat since 1987. So maybe Heitkamp does have a chance? Now you have to take a look at who exactly Rick Berg is.

We need to go beyond the fact that he's a much-disliked landlord in a state with a lot of renters. And let's go beyond his crazy extremist stance on social issues. He's not a whit less dangerous on women's health than Todd Akin. In fact, the two have identical voting records on all roll calls relating to women and, even beyond Akin, Berg voted to make abortion in the case of rape or incest punishable with a life sentence. When he was a state legislator 5 years ago he voted to criminalize abortion as a Class AA felony, including in the case of rape or incest, voting with a minority of the state house.

Up top you can watch voters at a debate in Bismarck Wednesday booing Berg when he tried to wiggle out of a question from Heitkamp about his vote to privatize Social Security. “When you say ‘I’m going to fix it,’ you’re going to privatize it,” said Heitkamp, provoking him into a standard GOP lie. She had the goods on him because in 2005 he had introduced a resolution in the state legislature formally supporting Bush’s plan to explicitly privatize Social Security. Instead of defending his position-- which is extremely unpopular-- Berg said that this attack is “what’s wrong with Washington.” He's the Washington pol, though, not Heitkamp. And the voters at the debate knew it. The booing was loud and long.

Polling shows the race neck and neck, although one recnt poll had Heitkamp ahead by 6 points-- and over 50%. Berg's unlikable personality is hurting him even more than his extreme positions.

Political analysts in North Dakota say voters here, despite their conservative bent, often choose personalities over party politics. With fewer than 700,000 residents in the state, a candidate can win an election with just 160,000 votes, and many voters get to vet their candidates in person.

"There's an extreme value placed on face-to-face retail politics here," said Mark Jendrysik, a political-science professor at the University of North Dakota. "People really do feel bent out of shape if you don't show up at their church picnic or town parade." In that environment, said Mark Springer, an associate professor of political science at the University of Mary in Bismarck, Ms. Heitkamp has done well because she "is more of a shake-the-hands, kiss-the-babies type person."

"She seems very personable, and he seems aloof," said Julie Tello, a fourth-grade teacher in Bismarck. "She just seems like a real North Dakotan who will stand up for what we believe in."

Merle Gunlock, a 90-year-old retired rancher in Williston, said he planned to vote for Mr. Berg because "he uses a lot of common sense."

The race has another X factor: oil workers. An oil boom in the state's west has drawn thousands of workers, who can vote because North Dakota is the only state in the U.S. without voter registration. Both candidates have campaigned in the oil patch, including tours of "man camps," or dormitories for oil workers in rural areas. Both candidates, however, said they doubt many workers will come out to the polls.