California Congressional Races Looking Good For Democrats

California went through a nonpartisan congressional redistricting and it looks like it could work out well for Democrats. Although the Republicans were once hopeful they could make conservative Democratic incumbent Jerry McNerney's race competitive (CA-09), last month a poll, from Celinda Lake, the most consistently accurate pollster in America, showed McNerney with a pretty insurmountable 16 point lead over Ricky Gill, an unemployed 25 year old stalker with a fake resume. The NRCC also had some kind of delusion they sold to the clueless media-- and Colusa County supervisor Kim Vann-- that they could beat John Garamendi (CA-03). Two polls have shown Garamendi leading by 15 points.

The DCCC is backing 7 challengers in Republican-held districts: Ami Bera (CA-07), Jose Hernandez (CA-10), Julia Brownley (CA-26), Raul Ruiz (CA-36), Mark Takano (CA-41), Alan Lowenthal (CA-47), and Scott Peters (CA-52). Bera and Peters have been endorsed by the pro-business, anti-consumer/anti-worker New Dem Coalition. Takano is a progressive. The rest are somewhere in between. The most obvious race the DCCC should be pursuing, CA-25, pitting Dr. Lee Rogers, a progressive, against House Armed Services Committee chairman Buck McKeon, who is drowning in a sea of corruption scandals and a local GOP civil war, is being studiously and aggressively ignored by "ex"-Blue Dog Steve Israel. (You can contribute to helping Rogers replace McKeon here.) The DCCC doesn't take on Republican leaders like Boehner and Cantor and they don't take on Republican committee chairs like Paul Ryan and Buck McKeon. They specialize in faceless, unknown backbenchers. OK, someone's got to. But someone has to go after these galoots as well too... and corrupt hacks Steve Israel, Joe Crowley and Debbie Wasserman Schultz take too much cash from the same nefarious interests that finance your Eric Cantors and Buck McKeons and Paul Ryans to ever go up against them.



On the other hand, the good news is that Ventura County Democratic Assemblywoman Julia Brownley (CA-26) leads Republican extremist Tony Strickland by 4 points (48-44%) according to a recent poll by Tulchin Research. She has a decent record in the state legislature and would probably wind up voting with the Democrats on all important issues. Even better news is that the one real progressive the DCCC is backing in the state, Mark Takano (CA-41), is ahead of Chamber of Commerce candidate, Republican John Tavaglione by 4 points (42-38%), even with ConservaDem Riverside mayor Ron Loveridge campaigning for the Republican. And in the new 47th CD (Long Beach, Westminster, Cypress and Garden Grove), state Senator Alan Lowenthal leads Republican Gary DeLong by 11 points (47-36%), despite a huge fundraising advantage by DeLong.

Dr. Ami Bera, who has come close twice before, is tied with far right Congressman Dan Lungren at 47%, and after positives Bera leads by five points (51-46%). Obama leads Romney 52-44% in this same poll. Similarly, conservative New Dem Scott Peters is tied with shady incumbent Brian Bilbray in two recent polls, one at 45-45% and one at 40-40%. Peters is a total Steve Israel brand of candidate and the DCCC is expected to spend close to $2 million on this race.

And even in the two races where the DCCC candidates are losing, they're not losing badly and could make up some lost ground. Dr. Raul Ruiz (CA-36) trails Mary Bono Mack by only two points (43-45%) with 12 percent of voters undecided, according to a recent PPP poll. Obama leads Romney 49% to 48% in this same poll. And freshman Jeff Denham (CA-10) is under 50% with astronaut Jose Hernandez trailing by just seven points (41-48%) with 12 percent of voters undecided, according to a recent PPP poll. Obama and Romney are tied at 47% in this same poll.

Meanwhile, the big one in California is CA-25, the one Steve Israel, for whatever reason, is adamant on throwing. McKeon has been the epitome of right wing conservatism and his career is characterized as being anti-gay, pro-war, and anti-immigrant, and as a leader in the war against women. As chair of the House Armed Services Committee, he opposes any reduction in defense spending or withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan. He promotes proliferation of nuclear weapons, threatening Iran with war, and the use of military drones domestically. He is the top recipient of campaign cash from the defense industry-- more even than any TWO senators!-- and he founded and chairs the drone caucus, which is giving him money hand over fist.

Several other circumstances make McKeon vulnerable for the first time. Redistricting was not favorable to him. The 25th CD used to be the second largest in California and had a 9 point partisan Republican advantage. Now it is a more compact, a mostly LA County district with a 4 point Republican advantage over Democrats and 18% Decline-To-State voters. The district is now 30% Latino, a group McKeon has alienated with his anti-DREAM Act stance and he’s even been caught trying to help overturn California’s state DREAM act.

What makes the race unique is that several large scandals have surfaced this year surrounding McKeon. The largest is the Countrywide Financial VIP program in which McKeon received a preferential loan at the direct intervention of then-CEO Angelo Mozilo. He lied about his involvement and the Oversight and Government Reform Committee recently released their report implicating McKeon. Issa, the chairman, referred to this loan program as a “bribe” on TV. National and in-district media have covered this story extensively. A newspaper poll even showed McKeon losing to an unnamed challenger over this issue.

McKeon has several FEC violations and failure to report in-kind donations and pays his wife to be his treasurer, in effect, illegally funneling vast amounts of campaign contributions into his personal household accounts. She is the highest paid congressional spouse and has made $600,000 from the campaign in recent years. McKeon also pays other family members for questionable services.

In the district, there is a gaping rift in the Republican party. McKeon former district director, Scott Wilk, is running for State Assembly in AD-38, a district wholly located inside CA-25. McKeon and Wilk separated on bad terms and McKeon ran his wife Patricia against him in the primary. Patricia lost embarrassingly, but not before causing irreparable damage to McKeon. In fact, all of his supported candidates in 2012 have lost local and state elections in the district, including the incumbent mayor of Santa Clarita. Being endorsed by McKeon is known as the kiss of death for any local Republican.

McKeon’s Democratic opponent is Dr. Lee Rogers, a surgeon and former national spokesperson for the American Diabetes Association and first time candidate. I know Lee personally and he's an independent-minded progressive who is articulate, intelligent and committed to public service in the same terms he's been committed to serving his medical patients.

Meanwhile, McKeon’s hometown newspaper, The Signal, refused to endorse him for the first time in 20 years in the primary over the CEMEX mining issue that Lee's been all over and will probably be the most important single issue in the minds of voters when they go into the voting booth. Please help us make sure Lee beats McKeon-- even without any help from Steve Israel, Joe Crowley and the rest of the corrupt DC insiders. You can contribute here.