The End of The Blue Dogs?

Democrats should only be so lucky! Later today we'll be talking with lifelong progressive icon, Asheville's populist city council member, Cecil Bothwell, who was at least partially responsible for driving virulent conservative Blue Dog Heath Shuler into early retirement. Last year Shuler was talking about one day rising to the Speakership and two weeks ago he was plotting to run for governor. His speakership was undermined when his Democratic colleagues rejected his attempted coup against Nancy Pelosi. In the end he wound up with the votes of just 10 ragged right-wingers plus himself-- Jason Altmire (Blue Dog-PA), Dan Boren (Blue Dog-OK), Jim Cooper (Blue Dog-TN), Joe Donnelly (Blue Dog-IN), Tim Holden (Blue Dog-PA), Larry Kissell (NC), Jim Matheson (Blue Dog--UT), Mike McIntyre (Blue Dog-NC), Mike Michaud (Blue Dog-ME) and Mike Ross (Blue Dog-AR). Pelosi got 173 votes. Boren and Ross have since announced their retirements; Donnelly's is leaving Congress in a fireball as a hopeless senatorial candidate and Tim Holden is likely to be defeated by progressive Matt Cartwright in a primary. The Blue Dog caucus, bolstered by a conservative-oriented DCCC leadership-- chairman Israel is an "ex" member of the reactionary caucus and still votes with them frequently-- looks like its falling apart. Their ranks were decimated in the 2010 elections when their membership went from 54 to 26. Shuler is the seventh member this year to announce early retirement.

It certainly isn't going to be clear sailing for Cecil Bothwell-- who was shown in a recent poll to be about the replace the increasingly unpopular Shuler as the Democratic nominee. First of all the Blue Dog/DCCC machine is already moving to insert Shuler staffer Hayden Rogers as the nominee. That will probably fail but the Art Pope-owned North Carolina legislature has added a lot of Republicans to the 11th CD and taken out a lot of Democrats (endangering diminutive fascist Patrick McHenry in the process, but more about that another time). Later today when we talk live with Cecil Bothwell as Crooks and Liars (2pm, ET) we can ask him his strategy for winning in a newly Republicanized district.

But the idea of ridding the Democratic House caucus of a "rising star" who was voting with the Republicans as a default position and who was constantly working to force Democrats to give up on progressive solutions and adopt conservative positions is already a huge win for progressives. It was because of reactionaries like Shuler that single-payer was never seriously pushed in the run-up to the health care bill and it was because of reactionaries like Shuler that the public option was abandoned and we wound up with a hard to defend mediocre health care bill in place of something that would have actually solved the country's pressing health care needs. Shuler did his work and now he'll get a cushy job on K Street working as a lobbyist for the corporations he's been serving in Congress.

As for the Blue Dogs as a caucus... they'll probably put their white sheets and hoods into a chest and morph with the like-minded, if less bigoted, New Dems, another execrable batch of conservatives inside the Democratic Party. Seven of the remaining Blue Dogs have already joined. And Shuler's retirement means that only one of the current Blue Dog leaders, the weakest and least effective-- John Barrow (GA)-- has even a chance to be in Congress next year. Barrow's district was also severely gerrymandered and it;s unlikely he will survive a Republican push against him in November. The new Blue Dog recruits the DCCC is pumping resources into are probably all going to lose in November. None of them are attractive candidates.

Cook says Republicans have a chance to pick up a lot of the seats of the retiring Blue Dogs-- and even if that isn't the case in Arizona and California, where Cook, as usual, has it wrong, at least half the remaining Blue Dogs face dim reelection prospects.

“One of the main reasons they’re not running-- and I’m sure it’s true with Heath-- is that Republicans have managed to use redistricting to carve up their districts,” said Norm Ornstein, a congressional expert at the American Enterprise Institute. “You’ve still got a lot of people who enjoy serving and would like to serve, but if you don’t have a district, it’s going to make it harder.”

Walton Robinson, spokesman for the North Carolina Democratic Party, said Republicans in the state legislature targeted Blue Dogs more than other Democrats in the redistricting process.

...Ornstein said it’s not just district lines that have become less friendly to moderates-- the entire political system has moved toward partisan extremes.

Blue Dogs “used to be in an enviable position,” he said. “They were the center in a system where you needed to move to the center. Now they’re all there in the center in a system that has no interest in moving there.”

When it still had more than 50 members, Blue Dogs formed an influential voting bloc in the last Congress.

Their power waned after the 2010 elections and will probably decrease further next year, experts say, unless Democrats manage to gain a narrow majority this year and need to court Blue Dog votes.

Last cycle, Blue America concentrated on helping defeat Alabama Blue Dog Bobby Bright, who had voted most frequently with the GOP and who was advertising he wouldn't vote for Nancy Pelosi as Speaker. With him out of the way, we've been focusing on Shuler and Tim Holden. Today we'll be officially endorsing Cecil Bothwell. The Blue America Bad Dog page is now geared up in a Tim Holden direction. You can help Cecil replace Shuler here.

Aside from Shuler staffer Hayden Rogers, the Blue Dogs have been using their war chest filled with corporate cash to push lame conservatives like Leonard Bembry (FL), Rob Wallace (OK), Brendan Mullen (IN), Marty Chavez (NM), Ted Vick (SC), Clark Hall (AR), Brad Schneider (IL), and Terry Bellamy (NC). The DCCC has already endorsed Mullen, Hall, Bembry, and Wallace (as well as former Blue Dog Nick Lampson).