What Districts Like NH-1 and FL-24 Have In Common-- Growing Disdain For Tea Party Extremism

Earlier today we touched on some of the issues around the race between progressive Carol Shea-Porter and teabagger Frank Guinta in New Hampshire's 1st CD, where Guinta managed to unseat her last year 121,655 to 95,503. Democrats were so angry and disappointed-- more at Obama and the conflicted, pointless national party than in Carol per se-- that Democratic and left-leaning independent turnout plummeted in the district. Two years early (presidential election, in which Obama took the 1st, a district Bush won both times, with 53%), 176,435 voters turned out for Carol (and 156,338 for the Republican, former Congressman Bradley). It makes more sense to compared 2010 to 2006, which was also a midterm. That year, when Carol first beat Bradley 100,899 voters cast their ballots for her (as opposed to 94,869 for the Republican). So if we just compare the 2 midterms, 2010 and 2006, the GOP performance was much better in 2010 (up over 26,000 votes and the Democratic performance... just like everywhere in the country-- in the toilet. Over 5,000 of her 2006 voters didn't show up. And over 80,000 people who voted for her in 2008, didn't come to the polls in 2010!

Although Guinta has consistently tried-- both as a candidate and a congressman-- to appeal to the state's teabaggers, he was too much of a political coward to actually join Michele Bachmann's official Tea Party Caucus in the House. Nevertheless, the new Pew polling fits the political profile of the district in a way that should worry the deranged Guinta. Voters are sick and tired of the Tea Party and their disastrous, obstructionist agenda.

Since the 2010 midterm elections, the Tea Party has not only lost support nationwide, but also in the congressional districts represented by members of the House Tea Party Caucus. And this year, the image of the Republican Party has declined even more sharply in these GOP-controlled districts than across the country at large.

In the latest Pew Research Center survey, conducted Nov. 9-14, more Americans say they disagree (27%) than agree (20%) with the Tea Party movement.  A year ago, in the wake of the sweeping GOP gains in the midterm elections, the balance of opinion was just the opposite: 27% agreed and 22% disagreed with the Tea Party. At both points, more than half offered no opinion.

Throughout the 2010 election cycle, agreement with the Tea Party far outweighed disagreement in the 60 House districts represented by members of the Congressional Tea Party Caucus. But as is the case nationwide, support has decreased significantly over the past year; now about as many people living in Tea Party districts disagree (23%) as agree (25%) with the Tea Party.

The Republican Party’s image also has declined substantially among people who live in Tea Party districts. Currently, 41% say they have a favorable opinion of the GOP, while 48% say they have an unfavorable view. As recently as March of this year, GOP favorability was 14 points higher (55%) in these districts, with just 39% offering an unfavorable opinion.

Among the public, 36% now say they have a favorable opinion of the Republican Party, down from 42% in March... [T]he steep decline in GOP favorability in Tea Party districts means that these constituencies now view the Republican Party about as negatively as the Democratic Party. As recently as March, GOP favorability exceeded Democratic Party favorability by 15 points (55% vs. 40%). Today, both parties receive about the same rating from people in Tea Party districts (41% favorable for the GOP, 39% for the Democratic Party).

One far right extremist who wasn't afraid to come out of the closet and join Bachmann's lunatic fringe caucus is Florida teabagger Sandy Adams. But she has more to worry about than just the Pew results. The Republicans who drew up the new districts were unkind to her. Rumors are the Republican Establishment in Tallahassee wouldn't terribly mind seeing, Adams, one of Congress' most ineffectual members, defeated anyway. It probably doesn't matter that the new 24th CD is now also the home of Republican power John Mica; he'll stick with his much redder old district regardless of where he lives. But they actually made it easier for a Democrat to win back the district. McCain won the 24th with 51% of the vote in 2008. Had the new boundaries been in place then McCain would have only won 50% of the vote. In 2008, Democrat Suzanne Kosmas defeated Tom Feeney who seemed on the verge of indictment for his role in the Abramoff scandal. She beat him 211,284 (57%) to 151,863 (41%), a pretty resounding victory with wins in all 4 counties, Brevard (52-46%), Orange (59-40%), Seminole (54-44%) and Volusia (61-37%). After one miserable term of calling herself a Democrat while voting like a Republican and acting in the interests of the Wall Street banksters she was supposed to be watching over the Financial Services Committee she thought of as a piggy bank, she lost 146,129 (60%)-98,787 (40%). Adams killed her in all 4 counties-- Brevard (64-36%), Orange (57-43%), Seminole (62-38%), and Volusia (58-42%). Just pathetic

But this time it won't be a race between a radical right teabagger (Sandy Adams) and a corrupt conservative shill (Suzanne Kosmas). This time a real Democrat is running against Adams, Nick Ruiz. Kosmas spent her two years in Congress having breakfasts, lunches and dinners with the sleaziest Washington lobbyists in town; she didn't deserve a second term. Ruiz is about as far from her as he is from Adams. A month ago he sent voters throughout the district an e-mail that let them know he's not just another garden variety political hack. In fact, if you're idea of a good legislator is Bernie Sanders, Nick Ruiz is someone you're going to swoon over. This morning I asked him about his commitment to take on the onerous and costly task of running for this seat-- and running for it without any help whatsoever from the DCCC. Here's what he told me:

I'm truly looking forward to representing FL-24 because for so long, central FL has had no real chance of contributing progressive ideas to her benefit, nor the national agenda. Aside from Alan Grayson's too short tenure, most of the candidates and representatives of this region have been of horribly right-wing, and repressive origins.

But Florida is far more liberal than you could ever imagine-- we have half a million more registered Democrats than Republicans. We have a hugely diverse population that respects diversity and equality. We want better times for more people. We want better jobs and higher wages for everyone. We want a more robust social safety net. We want a future that is sustainable and leadership we can believe in.

My commitment to a representative Congress arises straight out of this mix of cultural freedom, respect for diversity and socioeconomic fairness. When FL-24 elects me, it will be because they know in their heart of hearts - that I will purvey policy that benefits the majority of people. Tea Party Republican Sandy Adams has no vision for central FL, nor America, other than more of the same unequal oppression of the people by predatory wealth and neoconservative dogma.

I need your help to make sure that we can contribute our ideas and leadership to the national agenda, so that Florida's future, and that of America is a future where we invest in our people and collaborate with the rest of the world in a way that is sustainable and beneficial to all.

If you can afford to, invest with your heart. You're not going to find a better candidate than Nick Ruiz... not anywhere. You can contribute here; he was the first candidate endorsed by Blue America for the 2012 cycle.