Is It Too Late For Obama? Are Weprin And Marshall Warnings Of A Catastrophic 2012 For America?

Weprin's got the sleazy-looking little mustache

I grew up in what is now NY's 9th CD, a solidly Democratic Brooklyn district (which wanders into western Queens these days), which is also where Ken, Bernie Sanders, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Sandy Pearlman, and Chuck Schumer grew up. Even if the 6 of us still voted there, I don't think it would be enough to save the candidacy of David Weprin tomorrow, at least not according to the PPP data released last night, showing Obama's disapproval numbers just killing Weprin, who is losing 47-41. (Even 29% of Democrats want to send Obama a message. And the message is decidedly not what Obama's blinkered campaign manager, Jim Messina, termed a "Washington conversation.")

Radical right teabagger Bob Turner, who brags that he never met a tax loophole he didn't love, who wants to end Medicare and who is best known as the creator of Jerry Springer's trash TV show, looks like he'll be the first Republican to represent the district since Andrew Petersen's single term from 1921 to 1923. More recently the district was represented by Geraldine Ferraro, Chuck Schumer before he ascended to the Senate, and Anthony Weiner before the ridiculous texting "scandal."

When I was growing up, I don't even remember Republicans bothering to run serious candidates. Sometimes some rich Republican lawyer or realtor would run as a vanity candidate. In 2006 and 2008 there were no GOP candidates against Weiner. But something funny happened in 2008. Almost everywhere in the country-- except in the most viciously racist precincts of the Old Confederacy-- Obama was expanding on John Kerry's electoral results from 4 years before. But not in the 9th. Even in neighboring Republican Staten Island (NY-13), Obama did better than Kerry had. The only district in NYC where he did worse than Kerry was the 9th. Gore had beaten Bush 67-30%. Kerry had beaten Bush 56-44%. Obama dropped a percentage point down to 55%, at a time when other districts in the city were going up for Obama by 5 or 6%. At the same time, Weiner had only a third-party opponent and won with 112,205 votes, 93.1% of those cast.

But the GOP sensed a change, and in 2010, at the height of teabag-mania, they ran the self-financing Turner. The result, at a time when disappointed Democrats began staying away from the polls, was a victory for Weiner, 67,011 (60.8%) versus 43,129 (39.2%) for Turner. Although other Republicans have scored more votes than Turner in past elections, no one had ever scored a bigger percentage of votes. The GOP saw an opportunity. Would Democrats who were disappointed in 2010 also be disappointed in 2011? Late polling shows that's exactly what's going to happen. (According the the PPP, even the large Jewish population is ready to vote against Weprin-- 56-39%-- to give Obama the finger.) It looks like Democrats are demotivated and plan to just not vote tomorrow.

The Republican candidate is in a strong position heading into Tuesday’s special election in the heavily Democratic Congressional district formerly represented by Anthony D. Weiner, according to a new poll released on Friday.

Fifty percent of likely voters in New York’s Ninth Congressional District supported the Republican, Bob Turner, compared with 44 percent who supported his Democratic opponent, Assemblyman David I. Weprin, according to the poll (pdf), conducted from Tuesday to Thursday by the Siena Research Institute.

The gap between Mr. Turner and Mr. Weprin lies within the margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. But the poll, which was conducted by telephone of 886 likely voters, suggests that Mr. Turner, who sought to frame the race as a referendum on President Obama, has managed to turn what was expected to be a coronation for Mr. Weprin into a highly competitive contest.

The Ninth Congressional District, which includes portions of Brooklyn and Queens, has three registered Democrats for every one registered Republican. Last year, Mr. Weiner, a Democrat, defeated Mr. Turner by nearly 22 percentage points. But the poll found considerable disenchantment among likely voters: 74 percent said the country was headed in the wrong direction, and only 43 percent had a favorable impression of Mr. Obama, compared with 54 percent who viewed the president unfavorably.

I doubt Obama ever needed much persuading, but his first-- and now his second-- chief of staff (first Rahm Emanuel now William Daley) insisted that he govern as a center-right compassionate conservative. Emanuel is famous for having predicted he could screw over the aspirations of the Democratic coalition because they had nowhere else to go. He was probably shocked when they showed where else they had to go last November: nowhere, all right-- they didn't vote. And it looks like their disdain for Obama and his center-right governing philosophy will cost Democrats the 9th District tomorrow as tens of thousands of progressives sit it out again.

Saturday the NY Times pointed out that Democrats are increasingly worried that the Emanuel/Daley strategy is failing and that their hope that the Republicans will nominate a presidential candidate so extreme and so unpalatable (someone like Bob Turner?) that Democrats will just hold their collective nose and reelect Obama. It isn't working out that way. Even worse than Obama losing, "Some in the party fear that Mr. Obama’s troubles could reverberate down the ballot into Congressional, state and local races," a big turnaround from when "Democrats had entertained hopes of reversing losses from last year’s midterm elections."

Instead of going for a populist, New Deal approach, conservatives in the Democratic Party are doubling down in their anti-working family, pro-Big Business, Republican-light stance. As I pointed out earlier, Nevada party bosses actually shoved a Blue Dog down the rank-and-file's throats and will lose the special election in NV-2 tomorrow.

“In my district, the enthusiasm for him has mostly evaporated,” said Representative Peter A. DeFazio, Democrat of Oregon. “There is tremendous discontent with his direction.”

The president’s economic address last week offered a measure of solace to discouraged Democrats by employing an assertive and scrappy style that many supporters complain has been absent for the last year as he has struggled to rise above Washington gridlock. Several Democrats suggested that he watch a tape of the jobs speech over and over and use it as a guide until the election.

But a survey of two dozen Democratic officials found a palpable sense of concern that transcended a single week of ups and downs. The conversations signaled a change in mood from only a few months ago, when Democrats widely believed that Mr. Obama’s path to re-election, while challenging, was secure.

“The frustrations are real,” said Representative Elijah E. Cummings of Maryland, who was the state chairman of Mr. Obama’s campaign four years ago. “I think we know that there is a Barack Obama that’s deep in there, but he’s got to synchronize it with passion and principles.”

There is little cause for immediate optimism, with polls showing Mr. Obama at one of the lowest points of his presidency.

His own economic advisers concede that the unemployment rate, currently 9.1 percent, is unlikely to drop substantially over the next year, creating a daunting obstacle to re-election.

Liberals have grown frustrated by some of his actions, like the decision this month to drop tougher air-quality standards.

And polling suggests that the president’s yearlong effort to reclaim the political center has so far yielded little in the way of additional support from the moderates and independents who tend to decide presidential elections.

“The alarms have already gone off in the Democratic grass roots,” said Robert Zimmerman, a member of the Democratic National Committee from New York, who hopes the president’s jobs plan can be a turning point. “If the Obama administration hasn’t heard them, they should check the wiring of their alarm system.”

Obama has entrusted his reelection efforts to Jim Messina (AKA- Rahm Emanuel Jr.), a Machiavellian clown with only the most superficial political skills and no dedication whatsoever to core progressive values. He told the Times the criticism was largely a “Washington conversation." Is it a "Washington conversation" in NV-2 or NY-9?

Pete DeFazio scoffs at the idea: “I have one heck of a lot of Democrats saying, ‘I voted for him before, don’t know if I can do it again.’”