Kevin McCarthy Has Proven In The Past He Can't Count Votes But... Will The GOP Back Boehner's Budget Kabuki Today?

Boehner's office is claiming he has the votes in the bag to pass the budget deal he and Obama made. Recall, when they voted last Friday just after midnight on a temporary Band-Aid to keep the government from shutting down, 28 teabaggers and 42 progressives voted NO. It passed 348-70. Grassroots teabaggers, who the far right has been winding up with "shut down the government" rhetoric for month, is furious, screaming for Boehner's head on a pike and babbling incoherently about primaries.

With the budget itself coming up for a vote, it's up to Boehner and Cantor to get it passed-- and Hoyer claims they haven't asked for help from the Democrats. So far two top House Democratic Leaders, Xavier Becerra and John Larson have committed-- to voting NO. Although Hoyer, as always, is expected to fall in line behind whatever the Establishment position is, Pelosi isn't saying what she's going to do. This is inconvenient for Boehner-Cantor-Ryan, Inc because it comes just as revelations are sweeping the right-wing paranoia underground that the reported $38.5 billion dollar cut was all smoke and mirrors and there weren't anything like the substantive cuts they feel they were promised-- like maybe just a paltry $352 million.

Boehner took to the conservative airwaves, appearing with Sean Hannity on Fox News to dispel what he said was “inaccurate information” circulating about the legislation.
“These are real cuts,” Boehner said.

“I’m not jumping up and down thrilled to death with this deal, but it was the best we could get,” he said earlier in the interview.

Rank-and-file House Republicans appeared to be coalescing around the agreement, but party leaders had to fend off criticism from Republican presidential hopeful Tim Pawlenty, who said Thursday the deal “should be rejected.”

“The more we learn about the budget deal, the worse it looks,” the former Minnesota governor said in a statement. “When you consider that the federal deficit in February alone was over $222 billion, to have actual cuts less than the $38 billion originally advertised is just not serious.”
Pawlenty’s critique drew a chilly response from the party leadership.

“I think Tim Pawlenty and others are entitled to their opinion,” Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) told The Hill. “This is a deal the Speaker struck. It was the best deal he could strike given the fact he was dealing with the White House and the Senate.”

Asked if Pawlenty could swing Republican votes against the deal, Cantor said he wasn’t sure of the former governor’s intent. “Perhaps he wants to try and do that,” Cantor said. “What I can say is our members understand that what we’ve done is begin taking a first bite of the apple of dealing with the spending and debt crisis.”

In an implicit warning to other Republican presidential contenders, a senior House GOP aide brushed Pawlenty aside, telling The Hill that the candidate “would be considered a Blue Dog Democrat” in the 112th Congress.

“A real profile in courage from Governor Pawlenty-- who has no responsibilities but rattling off sound bites to appease the base,” the aide said. “In this Congress, Pawlenty would be considered a Blue Dog Democrat … that is, until he pretended to be something else.”

A spokesman for Boehner, Michael Steel, said in response to Pawlenty’s critique: “The Speaker has always honored President Reagan’s ‘11th commandment.’ ” Reagan famously said he never spoke ill of fellow Republicans.

Republican leaders were faring better on Capitol Hill. The freshman class president, Rep. Austin Scott (Ga.), told The Hill he would support the budget deal, as did Rep. Kristi Noem (S.D.), a freshman representative on the leadership team.

And that brings us to McCarthy's whipcount. Even as Marco Rubio was joining the other teabaggy senators in opposition, McCarthy says he has the votes in the House. Republicans who have already announced they will vote no include some of the craziest and most extremist press-whores, like Michele Bachmann (R-MN), Paul Broun (John Bircher Society), Steve King (R-IA), Jim Jordan (R-OH), Ron Paul (R-TX), Mike Pence (R-IN) and Scott Garrett (R-NJ). Several Republicans looking to jump into higher offices by appealing to teabaggers-- Jason Chaffetz (UT), Dean Heller (NV) and Pence will all vote NO as well. In the Senate, 7 teabagger types are joining Bernie Sanders in opposition-- DeMint (R-SC), Ron Johnson (R-China), Mike Lee (R-UT), Rand Paul (R-KY), Marco Rubio (R-FL), Jim Risch (R-ID) and Diapers (R-LA).

Many Republican freshmen elected with heavy teabagger support are now confident enough to follow Boehner-- who has made sure they are all being well taken care of by special interests lobbyists. They say they don't fear tea party primaries. Mike Kelly (PA) and Mike Grimm (NY) are two examples.

“It’s not that I’m not worried about them. And I would like to be all things to all people, but if you try to do that, you’re nothing to anybody. So I’m more inclined to just vote yes and move this in the right direction,” said Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Pa.), a freshman lawmaker who’s a favorite of Tea Party activists back in his home district.

The conservative grassroots movement says opposition to the budget deal, which was negotiated late last week by congressional leaders and the White House, has increased in recent days. The proposal cuts $39.9 billion from current spending levels, but Tea Party activists were encouraging GOP leaders to shut down the government in order to get higher cuts.

...“As much of a fiscal conservative as I am, you do have to accept the small victory sometimes before you get to the bigger victory,” said freshman Rep. Michael Grimm (R-N.Y.), who has taken some heat from Tea Party activists back in his home district.

“It’s not something I worry about,” Grimm said of the potential for a primary challenge. “My job is to lead and to govern. If I wanted to just sit back and not be a member of Congress and just be a member of a Tea Party, well, then I can espouse whatever I want because there are no consequences.”

Grimm praised Tea Party activists in his home base on Staten Island as “very reasonable and rational,” but he added he would rather make progress “a little at a time” than simply oppose a measure because conservative activists are railing against it.

Update after the vote today.