Monday Random Notes

How Early Will We Know If Everyone Was Just Making Monkeys Out Of The Pollsters?

The first state to close its polls is Indiana, 6:00PM (PT). If Brad Ellsworth, the reactionary Blue Dog, who was handed the nomination through the manipulative chicanery of ConservaDem Evan Bayh, wins the open Senate, it means the Democrats will likely be at the start of a tsunami that will wipe the GOP out in a way reminiscent of FDR's first midterm election. That one left the GOP with 25 oddball obstructionists howling at the wind in the Senate. (In that election, Indiana Republican incumbent Arthur Robinson, a KKK fanatic, was defeated.) At the same time Indiana closes down-- to make certain fewer working people will be able to vote, eastern Kentucky also closes, an hour before the rest of the state. If corporate shill Hal Rogers (KY-05) is beaten by populist Jim Holbert it means two things: there is an interventionist God and He loves us, and the GOP will be lucky if they wind up with 100 seats in the House.

Aside from the rest of Kentucky, 7PM will see polls close in Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia and all of Florida other than Alabama the Panhandle. If Blue Dogs Jim Marshall (GA-08) and Sanford Bishop (GA-02) are defeated, at least there is a silver lining in the offing for the Democrats. On the other hand, if Russell Edwards (GA-10) beats John Bircher Paul Broun, forget about 100 Republican seats; they'll be lucky if they hold 75! More likely, alas, is that the GOP can oust 14-term powerful moderate incumbent John Spratt and that will be an indication for a big Republican wave election. If Democrat Rob Miller once had a shot at knocking off Joe Wilson (SC-02), he blew that entirely when he deflated the base by embracing Republican talking points.

But the most telling races for the House will be seen in New Hampshire and Virginia. Nate Silver gives rightist Frank Guinta a 91.3% chance of turning out progressive Carol Shea-Porter, who has always been underestimated by the pollsters and pundits. Silver predicts a 54-44% win for Guinta. If he's correct, it isn't just going to be conservative Democrats who the voters will take to task for disappointing them. New Hampshire's other congressional district, an open seat, looks close but is leaning towards progressive Ann Kuster. Florida could be a real donnybrook for Democrats. If it's just Suzanne Kosmas who loses, that's fine. (That's her on the right waving bye-bye after one disgraceful term.) If Ron Klein and Alan Grayson lose to radical right sociopaths Allen West and Daniel Webster, we'll know it's curtains for the Democrats in the House. In a normal year Joe Garcia wouldn't have to break a sweat to beat lowlife crook David Rivera for the open seat in FL-25. This year this is one of the key indicators of how big the GOP gains will be. If Garcia wins-- and Nate Silver gives Rivera a 79.2% chance of prevailing-- it will be solid early news for Democrats. The open seat in FL-12 is a 3-way race that could turn out well for the Blue Dog Democrat, Lori Edwards, although the DCCC abandoned her as soon as they had driven the grassroots progressive, Doug Tudor, out of the race and Silver says the GOP candidate. Dennis Ross, has an 87.9 chance to win. We think he's severely underestimating what the Tea Party candidate, Randy Wilkinson, will be able to do.

Virginia may also been a real donkey's graveyard. Blue Dog Glenn Nye (VA-02) is expected to lose his seat-- and deservedly so. Perriello, whose fans mutter some nonsense about him representing "conviction politics," betrayed his own solemn promise to women by voting for the Stupak Amendment and has an overall voting record that has seen his convictions far more in line with John Boehner's than with the Democrats. He's a mess and doesn't deserve reelection, despite telling liberals whatever they want to hear, then going on his merry way. In the unlikely event that he scrapes out another narrow win, it will mean the GOP is going to have a much harder time than the pundits are claiming tonight to take back the House. The loss of Gerald Connolly's (VA-11) seat to Keith Fimian or Rick Boucher's (VA-09) to Morgan Griffith are far more unlikely but if either or both lose, we'll be in for a really ugly night-- no, really ugly.

7:30 will see the polls closing in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia. If the Republicans lose any of those Senate seats, they're unlikely to reclaim the majority. If Elaine Marshall wins in North Carolina, Democrats-- and progressives-- will be able to break out the champagne bottles. If Raese wins in West Virginia, it's likely the Democrats will lose both the House and the Senate.

Over in Ohio, we'll be watching Justin Coussoule's challenge of John Boehner. Since Boehner's first election two decades ago, the only times he's dipped below 70% were in 2006 (64%) and 2008 (68%). Nate Silver gives Boehner a 99.9% chance of being reelected tomorrow and calls the race at 65-29%. Should Coussoule hold the man whose entire campaign has been, "Vote for me and bask in the empty glory of being represented by The Speaker," to anything below 60%, DCCC contributors will have to ask themselves why they should ever donate to that failed, feeble and thoroughly corrupt organization again, which might have won this race against Boehner with even the most modest of efforts.

So that's what to look for in the early returns. Meanwhile send this to anyone who you think might need a little inspiration. See you in the morning!




UPDATE: Early Bad News For Republicans In Pennsylvania?

PA-15 leans Democratic-- and gave Obama a hefty 59-41% victory over McCain in 2008-- so the last thing the GOP was looking for was a big turnout today. But that's exactly what they're getting. Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan has put substantial resources in a GOTV effort which is humming right along and could spell curtains for Wall Street shill Charlie Dent-- as well as helping Joe Sestak overcome Pat Toomey-- in the very district Toomey once represented in Congress! Local news clip: