How much should the president worry about his slippage in the polls? (And are there perhaps longer-term worries?)

by Ken

We've been assuming that, although the "Just Say No" Republicans continue to lose battle after battle, they're losing the political war. I'm not so sure.

Of course the president's stratospheric poll numbers weren't going to last forever, and of course he has enemies lying in wait for the slippage. Last night I noted Fox Noise's gleeful report: "Deficits, Taxes and Time Appear to Doom Health Care Reforms," and this morning the Washington Post is pleased to announce, based on the findings of a joint poll with ABC News, "Poll Shows Obama Slipping on Key Issues":

Heading into a critical period in the debate over health-care reform, public approval of President Obama's stewardship on the issue has dropped below the 50 percent threshold for the first time, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Obama's approval ratings on other front-burner issues, such as the economy and the federal budget deficit, have also slipped over the summer, as rising concern about spending and continuing worries about the economy combine to challenge his administration. Barely more than half approve of the way he is handling unemployment, which now tops 10 percent in 15 states and the District.

The president's overall approval rating remains higher than his marks on particular domestic issues, with 59 percent giving him positive reviews and 37 percent disapproving. But this is the first time in his presidency that Obama has fallen under 60 percent in Post-ABC polling, and the rating is six percentage points lower than it was a month ago. . . .

Since April, approval of Obama's handling of health care has dropped from 57 percent to 49 percent, with disapproval rising from 29 percent to 44 percent. Obama still maintains a large advantage over congressional Republicans in terms of public trust on the issue, even as the GOP has closed the gap.

The erosion in Obama's overall rating on health care is particularly notable among political independents: While positive in their assessments of his handling of health-care reform at the 100-day mark of his presidency (53 percent approved and 30 percent disapproved), independents now are divided at 44 percent positive and 49 percent negative.

At the same time, there is no slackening in public desire for Obama to keep pressing for action on the major issues of the economy, health care and the deficit. Majorities think he is either doing the right amount or should put greater emphasis on each of these issues. . . .

At the same time, Post columnist E. J. Dionne Jr. takes a more respectful view of the president's political position:

Why Obama Likes His Odds

It was not the soaring rhetoric that is Barack Obama's signature, but he recently offered the sound bite that may define his presidency: "Don't bet against us."

There are reasons to believe that his confident words -- they were about health-care reform but have broader application -- were not the bombast of a bluffer exaggerating the strength of his hand. They reflect the high cards that Obama holds and has only now started to play.

Of course, no one ever thought passing a health-care bill would be easy, and the effort hit some bumps last week over costs and how to cover them.

But Obama doesn't quite see things the way his more nervous Democratic allies do because he missed the years in Washington during which his party was beaten down. Many Democrats had their perceptions of political reality shaped by the failure of Bill Clinton's health proposal, the 1994 Republican revolution and the GOP's triumphalism during President Bush's first term.

That world, however, turned upside down in 2005 -- the year Obama arrived in Washington. Bush's power dissolved in the failure of his Social Security privatization proposal, the Hurricane Katrina backlash and rising disillusionment with the Iraq war. By the end of 2006, less than two years after Obama's arrival, Democrats had seized control of both houses of Congress.

The paradox is that Obama's limited experience under Republican sway makes him more comfortable than many of his allies are with wielding the power that comes from large Democratic majorities. . . .

I don't know what's going to happen, but I think Dionne's case is well made, and there's good reason to believe that once again the saber-tooth R's are overplaying their hand.

However, I worry that we're still talking the R's merely losing another battle lost and worry about more slippage in the larger war of public perception. Even as the R's pick up marginal support from "facts on the ground," since they still have no alternative to offer I still worry more, as I've tried to indicate a number of times, about the lasting effects of their unremitting war of filth and lies. Some of that, too much of that, is bound to stick, and come back to haunt us.

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