Virginia Democratic Primary Today-- Will Voters Drive A Silver Stake Through Terry McAuliffe's Heart?

Virginia's newly resurgent Democratic Party helped win the presidency for Obama. He took Virginia's 13 electoral votes when 1,959,532 (53%) Virginians cast their ballots for him, as opposed to the 1,725,005 (47%) who went for McCain, a stunning reversal of Bush's 54% win in 2004. Since Bush's 2004 win, the Virginia Democratic Party has also won 2 U.S. Senate seats-- first Jim Webb's shocking defeat of George Allen and then Mark Warner's waltz (a 65% win) into an open seat-- and has picked up 3 formerly red House seats (Connolly, Nye and Perriello). Virginia elected Mark Warner governor in 2001 and his Lt Governor, Tim Kaine, won the seat in 2005.

Scratching a little below the surface, it doesn't look quite as wonderful. Kaine is a nearly worthless reactionary hack. Warner and Webb are centrists who are resistant to many progressive positions. And of the 3 new congressman, moderate Gerry Connolly has proven himself a solid supporter of Obama's change agenda, Tom Perriello much less so and Glenn Nye, a Blue Dog, is, well... better than a Republican.

So what can we expect from Virginia's gubernatorial primary today? Democrats are choosing a standard bearer for November 3rd's election against former Attorney General Bob McDonnell, a far right extremist. The three candidates are state Senator Creigh Deeds, former state Delegate Brian Moran, and uber-corruptionist and corporatist swine Terry McAuliffe. The corporate swine, of course, has spent immense sums of money to try to buy the election. Deeds and Moran both seem like solid moderates and each seems like he'd be an improvement over Kaine. McAuliffe represents all the worst that a Democrat could ever be-- someone who poisons the brand and gives people no reason to vote for Democrats over Republicans. He defines sleazy and shouldn't be in politics at all.

Sunday, Public Policy Polling released a new poll that shows Deeds significantly ahead of two rivals with 40% of the vote. McCauliffe (26%) and Moran (24%) trail.

Deeds now leads in every region of the state except Hampton Roads, including a 38-35 lead over Moran in northern Virginia, where just two and a half weeks ago Deeds was polling at only 11%. Deeds is up over 50% in the parts of the state outside Washington DC/Richmond/Hampton Roads.

“Creigh Deeds has come on strong and barring some major event in the final 36 hours of the campaign looks like he will be the Democratic nominee,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The Washington Post endorsement was really a game changer, giving him a card to play with suburban voters that complemented his strong support in the rural parts of the state.”

Deeds leads by ten points with Democrats and has more dominating margins of 27 points with independents and 22 points with Republicans allowing his overall lead of 14.

Deeds also came out comfortably ahead in the last SUSA poll-- with 42%, McAuliffe (30%) and Moran (21%) way behind. Judging by the dynamics of the results, it looks like Deeds will win today. Over the past 6 weeks he's tripled his support in the DC suburbs (from 12% to 40%) and has made similar strides among women (13% to 40%) and among college graduates he went from 21 points behind McAuliffe to 18 points over him. Deeds went from 17 points behind McAuliffe among white voters to 19 points ahead of him. The more independents that vote the larger the margin of victory will be for Deeds. The Post endorsement is effusive:

In 18 years in the General Assembly, Mr. Deeds has time and again supported measures that might be unpopular with his rural constituency but that are the right thing to do, for Northern Virginia and the state as a whole. He has demonstrated an understanding of the problems that matter most, the commitment to solve them and the capacity to get things done. Mr. Deeds may not be the obvious choice in the June 9 primary, but he's the right one.

...Some progressive voters may look past Mr. Deeds, assuming he's too far to the right on social issues. They should look again. Yes, he describes himself as a supporter of the Second Amendment. He's willing, however, to put limits on gun ownership when the stakes are highest, brokering a compromise in an effort to close the state's notorious gun show loophole. His support for abortion rights and for an amendment to prohibit the Confederate flag emblem from being displayed on state license plates are all the more impressive considering the weight of conservative voters in his district.

UPDATE: DEEDS WINS!

With a third of Republicans viewing the GOP unfavorably, the Democratic nomination is very valuable. We were extremely happy to see Deeds win it, not because he's such a wonderful progressive but to keep the slimy McAuliffe out of politics. AP called the race with Deeds at 51% and McAuliffe and Moran trailing at 26 and 23% respectively.