In the face of GOP obstructionism, at least among Dem voters Congress's poll numbers are up -- and now Repugs claim credit for the stimulus money!

Howie wrote: This strikes me as an important story -- especially that the increasing popularity of Congress is all about people approving of Democrats. All I can think about is the results of the 1936 congressional election: 16 Republicans left in the Senate and 88 in the House (20%) after the reactionaries pulled on FDR the identical crap they are trying to pull on Obama now. 88 Republicans left in the House by 2012 would almost make up for Bush and Cheney not being dragged before the Hague War Crimes Tribunal. On the other hand, 88 Republicans left in the House may make that dream attainable.

THE FIX
by Chris Cillizza

Is Congress Getting More Popular?

Days after passing President Obama's massive economic stimulus plan, new polling numbers from Gallup show that Congress' job approval ratings have gained considerable ground over the past month -- a boost that at least raises the possibility that Capitol Hill's long streak of unpopularity may finally be turning around.

The February Gallup survey showed 31 percent of voters approved of the job Congress was doing while 61 percent disapproved. While those numbers are far from stellar, they are a significant improvement over the dismal January poll when just 19 percent approved of the job Congress is doing while a whopping 76 percent disapproved.

The 12-point gain between January and February is the third largest increase in congressional approval -- as measured by Gallup -- since 2001. The largest jump (+42 percent) came between September 2001 and October 2001 when the attacks of Sept. 11 rallied the country behind the Congress and the president. When Democrats seized control of Congress in late 2006 the approval rating for the body soared from 21 percent to 35 percent between December 2006 and January 2007.

Looking more broadly at the state of survey data on Congress, there is evidence of a slight warming trend about how people feel about the institution. Here's the latest chart from the folks at pollster.com:

[Sorry, the chart didn't reproduce! You can check it out at the washingtonpost.com link.]

It's clear that Congress has grown more popular in the eyes of voters over the first two months of 2009.

Why?

It's easy to conclude that the numbers have to do with the approval of Obama's stimulus plan in short order -- proof that Congress can quickly move to address the pressing problems in the country.

While facile, that explanation falls short, as the time when this Gallup survey was in the field -- Feb. 9-12 -- came in the heart of the battle between Obama and Republicans over the plan. The bill's passage last Friday night -- and subsequent positive attention the legislation garnered over the weekend -- came well after the poll had come out of the field.

So, what are the other possible explanations? First, and most likely, is that congressional approval traditionally tracks with presidential approval -- albeit somewhat lower -- and with the change from the extended unpopularity of former president George W. Bush to the high approval ratings of President Obama some level of bump is expected.

"It is part of the new administration bounce," said Glen Bolger, a Republican pollster and partner in Public Opinion Strategies. "Whether it holds or not depends on the direction the economy takes."

A look back at recent political history provides credence to Bolger's theory. In a January 2001 Gallup poll -- the earliest days of the Bush presidency -- 50 percent of voters approved of the job Congress was doing while 40 percent disapproved. Within a month, the approve number was 29 points higher than the disapprove mark and that disparity stayed in the mid to high teens for the next six months.

Looking further inside the numbers, the gains in congressional approval come almost exclusively from Democrats who, even though their party controlled the House and Senate between 2006 and 2008, appear to have strongly rallied behind their party in the first few months of the year.

In the Gallup poll, the support among Democrats more than doubled between January and February -- from 18 percent to 43 percent -- while congressional approval moved up far more marginally among Independents (17 percent to 29 percent) and actually declined among Republicans (23 percent to 19 percent).

Fred Yang, a Democratic pollster at Garin-Hart-Yang Research, points out that the Gallup data "confirms the energy that Democrats are feeling with a new Democratic president and a united Democratic agenda" but also points to the "limits of bipartisanship."

All sides in the debate agree that it's important not to draw too many conclusions about voters' attitudes toward Congress based on a single poll or even a series of surveys taken in the immediate aftermath of a change in the White House.

The underlying numbers do suggest that bipartisanship may not be the end goal for either side as Democrats appear to be rallying behind their president while Republicans are retreating more and more into their own past partisanship.

ALL OBSTRUCTION, ALL THE TIME

Howie wrote: In regard to what I sent you earlier about the Gallup poll finding voters are viewing Democrats more favorably there, this is an interesting report from CQPolitics this morning showing that the GOP is digging in their heels when it comes to their overarching strategy: all obstruction, all the time --

This Change Isn’t Very Hopeful

By John Cranford, CQ Staff

The partisan polarization that has defined Congress over the past decade has not improved in the first weeks of the new administration — if anything, it has gotten worse.

Out of 62 roll call votes through Feb. 13 in the Senate (not counting the final vote on the economic stimulus bill), 52 pitted a majority of Democrats against a majority of Republicans — a whopping 84 percent that meet Congressional Quarterly’s definition of a party unity vote. The House was only marginally less polarized, with 61 percent of its 70 roll call votes splitting the parties.

President Obama has been philosophical about bridging this divide. “There have been a lot of bad habits built up here in Washington,” he said, “and it’s going to take time to break down some of those bad habits.”

It’s early, though, and the bulk of voting has been on issues such as the stimulus bill, guaranteed to test ideological fault lines. But the number is extraordinary. Since CQ began looking at voting patterns in 1953, the frequency of Senate party unity votes never before breached 69 percent for a single year. The House cast a higher percentage only once since 1995.

Moreover, Democrats are voting more often than ever with their caucuses on these partisan votes, and Republicans aren’t far behind.

On average, House and Senate Democrats have voted with their party more than 96 percent of the time this year — ahead of the record pace. House Republicans have hung together a record 94 percent of the time. Only Senate Republicans have trailed, voting with their colleagues just 87 percent of the time, well below their record of 94 percent. But that’s clearly because of the low scores of a few high-profile GOP defectors, particularly Olympia J. Snowe and Susan Collins of Maine and Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, who helped broker the stimulus deal. All three scored below 50 percent so far on party unity votes.

MEANWHILE, AS REPUGS FACE THE FOLKS BACK
HOME, WHAT DO THEY DO? OF COURSE, THEY LIE!

We're already seeing the start of what looks like a trend: Republicans who (of course) opposed the stimulus package returning home and taking credit for the money that's heading their constituents' way!

Missouri Sen. Kit Bond, who you may recall just recently browbeating poor Leon Panetta, at his confirmation hearings to be CIA director, into withdrawing his charge -- which we all know to be true -- that the U.S. engaged in extraordinary rendition. Apparently the senator is trying to establish a reputation as the biggest liar among the extraordinary caucus of lying Senate Republicans. Sure enough, there he is back home claiming credit for the stimulus money for affordable housing -- while, yes, attacking other portions of the package, without bothering to mention that he voted against the whole thing.

And reports are coming in from all over the country of congressmen doing the same. The DCCC assembled this preliminary report on four such darlings:

House Republicans Railing against the Economic Recovery Bill in DC and Praising Its Spending at Home:

• Representative Blaine Luetkemeyer (MO-09) - "Luetkemeyer said the project is considered ‘shovel ready' and that's what the economy needs. President Darrell Krueger and Luetkemeyer discussed the educational benefits of the economic stimulus package." [KTVO-TV, 2/17/09]

• Representative Don Young (AK-AL) - "Alaskan Congressman Don Young won a victory for the Alaska Native contracting program and other Alaska small business owners last night in H.R. 1, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. [Congressman Don Young's Press Release; 2/13/09]

• Representative Ken Calvert (CA-44) - "All of us in the Inland Empire will do what we can to direct as much money as we can." [The Press Enterprise; 2/13/09]

• Representative John Mica (FL-07) - "I applaud President Obama's recognition that high-speed rail should be part of America's future," [Congressman John Mica Press Release; 2/13/09]

In the past three weeks, House Republicans unanimously voted no on the very economic recovery investments that they are boasting about. [H.R.1, #46, 1/28/09], [H.R. 1, #70, 2/13/09]

While on the FOX News program, Glenn Beck, Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele said, "...I'm not going to soft pedal this with you. I'm not going to try to blow smoke either. The reality of it is, you are absolutely right. You have absolutely no reason, none, to trust our word or our actions at this point. So, yeah, it's going to be an uphill climb." [FOX News, 2/13/09]

The DCCC also points out with regard to Calvert ("keep in mind he was nearly defeated in November by an UN-financed unknown Democrat") that this particular darling is ankle-deep in a public-land-purchase scandal now working its way through Riverside (CA) County Superior Court.

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