Thursday, January 15, 2009

Republicans Preparing For Another Disastrous Election Cycle?

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Senate Repugs counting on Cornyn to prevent a wipeout

Despite the press releases run by the Politico to make Republican Inside-the-Beltwayites feel happy-happy in their time of greatest need [Eric Bohlert derided at this shameless silliness at Media Matters this morning], the GOP knows they're in danger of another devastating set of congressional elections in 2010. And this goes deeper than the fact that Bush's disapproval ratings are high among every group except the hard core GOP base.

Happy talk about how handsome Marco Rubio is, isn't going to win the Florida seat being abandoned by Mel Martinez, especially not if Florida CFO Alex Sink runs. And not even rich giddy gays are going to vote for him if John Cornyn has his way and can persuade rich, giddy gay Governor Charlie Crist to run. With Jeb Bush out of the race, the Republicans know they have to do something to hold a state that Obama just won by over 200,000 votes-- and that shit-canned two entrenched Republican congressional incumbents, Tom Feeney and Ric Keller both from the pivotal Orlando area.
National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn (Texas) on Wednesday said efforts are ongoing to persuade Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) to run for his state’s open Senate seat.

Few Florida politicians can match Crist’s popularity and fundraising potential. The governor, a centrist who was elected in 2006,  has denied any interest in running for the seat being vacated by Sen. Mel Martinez (R), but Cornyn, who has spoken to the governor about the race, suggested Crist may be open to persuasion.

Cornyn is petrified of getting stuck with a far right extremist (like himself) who won't be able to win. And most faves of the Florida GOP base are far right extremists, from Rubio to Attorney General Bill McCollum to lunatic fringe Congressman Vern Buchanan. And he knows he better hold Florida, because Missouri is looking really bad for rightists. Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is poised to kick the ass of any of the extremist loons the GOP is likely to put up to replace Kit Bond, especially defeated Senator Jim Talent and corrupt Rep. Roy Blunt, whose son just left the governor's mansion with a whiff of scandal hanging over him.

Although Democrats were disappointed that New Hampshire Governor John Lynch has decided against running against vulnerable incumbent Judd Gregg, either Rep. Paul Hodes or Rep. Carol Shea-Porter looks like a good bet to give the Democrats a clean sweep of the entire New Hampshire congressional delegation. McCain only won 45% of the statewide vote in November-- in a state that he considered friendly territory-- the same losing percentage that incumbent Senator John Sununu managed. Lynch wound up winning 70% of the vote while Carol Shea-Porter, the GOP's #1 target against whom they deployed millions and millions of dollars in slanderous advertising, took 52% and Paul Hodes took 57%.

Cornyn is even begging Texas' other senator, Kay Bailey Hutchison, who wants to run for governor, to stay in the Senate for another 6 years to keep that seat from falling to the Democrats. It looks like she'll keep her Senate seat while she campaigns for governor, short-changing Texans, who have certainly had their share of being short changed by their political leaders in recent decades. Notice how every angle is covered in the political calculus except one: what's good for Texas' working families:
Hutchison is not up for reelection until 2012, meaning she could retain her Senate job if she loses the gubernatorial primary.

Conversely, if she resigns early and gives Democrats a shot at 60 seats, it hands Perry a ready-made talking point for what is expected to be a pitched battle between the two Republicans.

Previously, Hutchison’s campaign has said that any resignation would come in late 2009, which would likely pave the way for a May 2010 special election.

But one insider said the forces are so strong that Hutchison is now leaning against resigning.

“There’s a lot of pressure on her to do the right thing and not allow Democrats to reach the 60-seat threshold,” the source said.

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