The Race To 60: Alaska, Minnesota, Georgia

Would Chambliss dare bring Bush back to Georgia for a campaign event?

By now, you surely know that Republican convicted felon and senator, Ted Stevens-- unlike sore losers GOP reps Marilyn Musgrave, Virgil Goode and Randy Kuhl-- has conceded defeat. Not sure when he'll be reporting for prison. Just kidding; he'll certainly be one of the Republicrooks Bush pardons. One assumes that Bush will refuse, as a matter of "principle," to read Russ Feingold's warning about the abuse of pardons, which in any case only addresses the really huge, heinous stuff the Bush Regime was involved in, not the bribery and corruption one expects from political hacks like Stevens.

Despite the conviction, Stevens keeps his pension, which the National Taxpayer's Union calculates at about $122,000 a year. Members of Congress can lose their pensions for being convicted of specified crimes, such as bribery and racketeering, but Stevens' offenses aren't on the list. Senators also have investment retirement accounts.

Anyway, that leaves the Democrats with 58 seats-- if you count Lieberman as a Democrat-- with 2 to go. As I mentioned the other day, I'm just a passive observer in the race to 60. But I figure readers want to know what's going on. So... let's start with Minnesota, where Paul Wellstone seems to be smiling down from Heaven. The recount started yesterday and it's all bad news for the bad guys.

By day's end, with about 18 percent of the vote recounted, Coleman continued to lead Franken -- but by only 174 votes, notably narrower than the unofficial gap of 215 votes at which the recount had begun. Franken's gain owed much to a swing of 23 votes in the Democratic stronghold of St. Louis County-- the result of faintly marked ballots and older optical scanners that failed to read the marks.

Nate Silver has a more comprehensive analysis of what happened yesterday than the Star Tribune, although the same ending, of course: a shrinking margin for Coleman (now 172 votes). The important thing to remember is that Democratic strongholds in Minneapolis and Duluth are yet to come in with their numbers, which are expected to overwhelmingly favor Franken.

Minnesota reports that it has thus far re-counted 15.49 percent of its ballots. If the first day's results are indicative of the pace that the candidates will maintain throughout the recount process, Franken would gain a net of 278 votes over Coleman, giving him a narrow victory. For any number of reasons, however, the results reported thus far may not be indicative of future trends.

Although Franken gained ground relative to Coleman, in actuality both candidates have fewer votes than they began the day with. This is because of the "challenge" process in which representatives of either candidate may challenge any ballot for any reason, which will subsequently be reviewed one at a time by Minnesota's canvassing board in December. Challenges can occur to ballots that had previously been deemed to be legal, in which case those votes will be deducted from the opponent's total. Coleman has thus far challenged 115 ballots and Franken 106. However, based on local reports, many or perhaps most of the challenges are frivolous, and are unlikely to be upheld upon review. Thus, the candidate who has challenged fewer ballots probably stands to gain ground once such challenges are adjudicated.

And that leaves Georgia's run-off. The good news for Jim Martin yesterday was an enthusiastic and very compelling endorsement from the state's biggest newspaper, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

Jim Martin and Sen. Saxby Chambliss may be former fraternity brothers at the University of Georgia, but they look, act, think and speak in very different ways. The two candidates in the Dec. 2 Senate runoff offer Georgia voters a stark choice.

Martin, the Democrat, has been a fighter for the little guy throughout his life, and he’s proved effective in that role. He served his country in the U.S. Army in Vietnam and as a state legislator, lawyer and head of the state Department of Human Resources. Throughout his public life he has been known as a workhorse not a showhorse, someone whose first concern was getting the job done well rather than trying to get the credit.

In fact, Martin was so well-respected for his competence and ability to work across party lines that when Gov. Sonny Perdue became the state’s first Republican governor in a century, he asked Martin to remain as head of the state Department of Human Services.

In his six years in the U.S. Senate, Chambliss has set a very different course. He fought against stricter immigration policies not out of a sense of compassion, but because easy immigration and lax enforcement served the interests of industry. When he fought against reform of farm subsidies that cost taxpayers billions, it wasn’t out of concern for the small family farmer. The reforms championed by President Bush but opposed by Chambliss would have cut payments only to huge corporate farms.

Time and again, on issue after issue, Chambliss has taken the side of the powerful and influential over those of the taxpayer and general citizen. His performance this year at a Senate hearing, in which he took the side of corporate management by browbeating a safety whistle-blower at a Savannah sugar mill, has become the stuff of legend. (A few months earlier, an explosion at the plant had killed 14 workers.)

The less good news for Martin is that the polling data shows Chambliss slightly ahead, 50-46%. Polls are less relevant in special elections like this however because the entire game is turn-out, which is expected to be low. It comes down to this: will the Republican's hysterical fear-mongering about a Democratic ability to overcome reactionary filibusters of the Obama's agenda for change trump an effort-- if there is one, which I doubt-- by Obama to win the 60 seat filibuster proof majority and get on with the change he promised in the election campaign? Bill Clinton was in Georgia explaining the damage a filibuster will do. If Obama goes down there and does it, Martin will win. (And a radio spot is only a halfway effort and won't do the trick.) If he doesn't, Chambliss will be re-elected: