The DWT Predictions For Tomorrow

These are premised on there being no electoral fraud from our friends on the right. It always amazes me that the Democrats send out hordes of lawyers to protect voters from the hordes of lawyers the GOP sends out to disenfranchise people. Something I'll never forget in my life was how a then-young little fascist piece of shit, Willy Rehnquist, was a lawyer assigned to keep minority voters from casting ballots in Phoenix in the early '60s. It was the first time I ever heard of him. The Republican Party rewarded him with a series of jobs and eventually Nixon appointed him to the Supreme Court, where he was the most far right extremist on the Court, reason enough for Reagan to make him Chief Justice. He's currently slowly roasting in hell. Anyway... back to the predictions.

Since I started yammering about the Supreme Court out of the blue, let's get going with the Senate, since they will have to advise and consent to President Obama's nominations if we should be so lucky and see Scalia, Thomas, Roberts and Alito all fall into a shark tank and get torn to bits before anyone thinks about saving their worthless carcasses.

Unfortunately, no Democrats will lose their seats, so we will be stuck with utterly reactionary swine like Mark Pryor (AR) and Mary Landrieu (LA) for 6 more years. The most likely Democrats to win are both contesting open seats. I hope Mark Warner (VA) turns out to be a moderate like Jim Webb has and not a dickhead reactionary. I'll hope for the best and be ready for the worst from this guy. The other sure thing is one of the best candidates the Democrats have this year, Tom (NOT Mark) Udall (NM). He's on the way to routing extreme right-wing knuckle-dragger Steve Pearce, who is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Big Oil and was-- aside from Cornyn-- their biggest play of 2008 ($314,234), bigger even than crooked oil whores Inhofe, McConnell and Landrieu. Tom is a solid progressive with great ideas for moving America forward. Let's hope he has more influence on his cousin in the Senate than he did in the House. And, in fact, that cousin, Mark Udall (CO), is the third sure Senate winner tomorrow, also for an open Republican seat.

Even Alaskans aren't contrary enough to re-elect a convicted felon and Mark Begich has been ahead in every single poll this cycle. And that brings us to the tougher races. The best of the likely winners-- by far-- is the man who should get Paul Wellstone's desk, Jeff Merkley (OR). We should look for Merkley to join Bernie Sanders, Sherrod Brown and Russ Feingold to fight for the interests of working families and for the re-establishment of constitutional law. Jeanne Shaheen (NH), a decent moderate, should be fighting a re-election battle but in 2004 Rove engineered a theft of the New Hampshire Senate election-- and possibly an airplane accident in Minnesota-- to give Bush a Senate majority. This year New Hampshire voters will correct that injustice by retiring John Sununu from public life. As I explained earlier, Elizabeth Dole killed her own re-election prospects with her out-of-bounds negative campaigning and right of center hack Kay Hagan (NC), an improvement over Dole by all means, will wind up a U.S. Senator. Norm Coleman has tried painting Al Franken (MN) a left-winger; we should be so lucky! He's a solid, decent moderate... and likely to win the Minnesota Senate seat tomorrow.

That brings us to 8 pick-ups. Even if you want to count Lieberman as a Democrat, which is silly, that still doesn't give Reid the clout to break a filibuster without help from Olympia Snowe (R-ME) or, even less likely, Arlen Specter (R-PA). Are there any other shots? There are two toss-ups. Jim Martin (GA), a decent moderate. I have a first hand report from a friend that just came in via IM:

I stood in line 6 hours on Friday, after trying to vote all week for less than that time, and it never happened... most of the people around me, and I mean MOST were Democrats... very few Republicans in North Fulton County. Let me revise... Lots of Republicans in North Fulton County. Problem is, none are voting as they did in 2000 and 2004! Georgia goes Blue... Georgia goes Blue... Thats my early call based on what I've seen. Of course, I've been saying that for weeks, but I believe it after Friday. People in line were very vocal about for whom they were voting. So this wasn't just a guessing game.

OK, Martin could force radical right extremist Saxby Chambliss into a run-off, although there's no guarantee that Georgia will then decide to hand the Democrats the key to the car. That leaves the seat Roger Wicker was appointed to in Mississippi. Can anti-choice reactionary Dem Ronnie Musgrove take it? He has a 5 point gap to close in less than 20 hours.

Is there anywhere else left to look? It seems hardly worthwhile to pray that Bruce Lunsford close the narrowing 3 point gap with the odious Mitch McConell, since Lunsford is almost equally odious and will quickly show himself to be the absolute worst "Democrat" in the Senate. So if you want to pray, here are the chances the Democrats have to get a decent senator as #60. Pray for a 5-10 point shift in any-- better yet, all-- of these:

Rick Noriega (TX)
Tom Allen (ME)
Andrew Rice (OK)
Scott Kleeb (NE)

So... without Divine intervention, look for 8 pickups and a possible run-off. Pray

And that brings us to the House. I'll go alphabetically by state. First a note. In 2006 not one Democratic seat went to the Republicans. This year a fake Democrat-- a corrupt reactionary one at that-- Tim Mahoney (FL-16) is likely to lose his seat. It's actually a toss-up but my guess is that he'll be swamped, giving progressives one more reason for celebration. I'd love to see right-wing Democrats who vote with the GOP more than with their own party-- like Nick Lampson (TX-22) and Don Cazayoux (LA-06)-- also lose their seats. The latest from Texas shows Lampson down significantly in one of those unreliable Zogby polls, 53-36%, and in Louisiana William Cassidy is gaining on Cazayoux who will owe his defeat-- if it comes-- to an independent run by African-American state Senator Mike Jackson (polling 14%). Cazayoux only won his seat because he posed as a champion for working families, attracting massive African-American support, so it would be an act of supreme justice for him to lose tomorrow. Those 3 are the only Democratic incumbents with any chance of losing-- and I'll opt for all three, although the polling for Cazayoux and Lampson is suspect and if I didn't hate them both so much I would discard it. There is also an even chance that Democrat Paul Kanjorski (PA-11) will lose his seat to xenophobe and bigot Lou Barletta.

OK, that said, here are the districts that I'm predicting will change from red to blue. (The ones in italics are long shots that will need a bigger-- and more widespread-- Obama landslide than anyone is predicting.)

AL-02: Bobby Bright (crap Democrat)
AL-05: Parker Griffith (crap Democrat)
AL-03: Josh Segall

AK-AL: Ethan Berkowitz

AZ-01: Ann Kirkpatrick (crap Democrat)
AZ-03: Bob Lord

CA-04: Charlie Brown*
CA-03: Bill Durston
CA-26: Russ Warner*
CA-45: Julie Bornstein
CA-46: Debbie Cook*
CA-50: Nick Leibham

CO-04: Betsy Markey

CT-04: Jim Himes*

FL-08: Alan Grayson*
FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas
FL-25: Joe Garcia*
FL-12: Doug Tudor
FL-13: Christine Jennings (crap Democrat)
FL-18: Annette Taddeo*
FL-21: Raul Martinez (crap Democrat)

ID-01: Walt Minnick

IL-10: Dan Seals
IL-11: Debbie Halvorson
IL-06: Jill Morgenthaler

IN-03: Michael Montagano (crap Democrat)
IN-06: Barry Welsh*

IA-04: Becky Greenwald
IA-05: Rob Hubler

KY-02: David Boswell (crap Democrat)

LA-04: Paul Carmouche (crap Democrat)

MD-01: Frank Kratovil (crap Democrat)

MI-07: Mark Schauer*
MI-09: Gary Peters*
MI-08: Robert Alexander

MN-03: Ashwin Madia
MN-06: Elwyn Tinklenberg (crap Democrat)
MN-02: Steve Sarvi

MO-09: Judy Baker
MO-06: Kay Barnes

NE-02: Jim Esch (crap Democrat)

NV-03: Dina Titus
NV-02: Jill Derby

NJ-03: John Adler
NJ-07: Linda Stender
NJ-05: Dennis Shulman*

NM-01: Martin Heinrich*
NM-02: Harry Teague
NM-03: Ben Ray Lujan

NY-13: Michael McMahon (crap Democrat)
NY-25: Dan Maffei*
NY-29: Eric Massa*
NY-26: Alice Kryzan

NC-08: Larry Kissell*

OH-01: Steve Dreihaus (crap Democrat)
OH-02: Victoria Wulsin*
OH-15: Mary Jo Kilroy
OH-16: John Boccieri
OH-03: Jane Mitakides
OH-07: Sharen Neuhardt

PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper (crap Democrat)
PA-15: Sam Bennett*
PA-18: Steve O'Donnell

SC-01: Linda Ketner

TX-07: Michael Skelly
TX-10: Larry Joe Doherty*

VA-05: Tom Perriello*
VA-11: Gerald Connolly (crap Democrat)
VA-02: Glenn Nye
VA-10: Judy Feder*

WA-08: Darcy Burner*

WY-AL: Gary Trauner

So I'm predicting 39 Democratic pickups and 3 Democratic losses for a net of 36. And there are reasonable shots for 33 more Democrats. Tomorrow should be pretty exciting. (House candidates with stars mean they are Blue America-endorsed progressives)