Monday, October 13, 2008

Will Obama's Coattails Bring Home A Filibuster-Proof Senate?

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I guess all those rabble-rousing Colorado appearances by Sarah Palin have paid off big time-- for Barack Obama, just like McCain's smear campaign of negative advertising did. Palin has made some of her ugliest and most negative speeches on behalf of McCain in Colorado and over the weekend Public Policy Polling announced startling new numbers for that state-- double digits for Obama.
Barack Obama 52%
John McCain 42%

Among Hispanics Obama's lead has increased from 57-36% three weeks ago to a whopping 71-21% this week. You'd be surprised how attuned minority groups, like Hispanics, are to appeals to Nativism and bigotry. That may also account for the surge in Obama's polling numbers in Florida and New Mexico as well. Obama is up over McCain in all 4 Florida polls done this month (by and average of 5%) and in the last half dozen polls in New Mexico, Obama is up by an average of 7.3%.

There is cautious talk of the L word in some circles, while distraught wingnuts are starting to ask themselves if it'll be a rout. Lunatic fringe reactionary, blaming "the media":
[T]he McCain brand has been damaged, with the assistance of the MSM, by Obama’s relentless attacks. In addition, Obama has done a pretty good job of conning voters into believing that he is, precisely, a generic Democrat.

Accordingly, the possibility that Obama will win by 10 points or more cannot be ruled out.

And even if Obama fades under last minute scrutiny to the point that the race becomes close, the Democrats’ generic advantage might well produce a rout in the Senate. For example, Elizabeth Dole and Norm Coleman are both in trouble.

More realistic rightists admit to themselves that McCain's defeat has been self-inflicted and are already sifting through the ruins of his campaign and writing his political obituary. Their stance, of course, is that McCain is losing because he isn't reactionary enough. They want a real fascist, someone even further to the right than McCain. Hopefully in 2012 they'll have the clout to run Palin and we'll see what excuses they make when she wins secessionist-leaning Alaska, Idaho and Utah... and nothing else.
The acknowledgment of reality is not a panic. And the attempt of some Republicans to encourage miracle comeback fantasies serves only to distract conservatives from the task ahead.

It was McCain's outspoken support for the unpopular bailout-- a big-government intervention incompatible with conservative economic philosophy-- that handed the election to Obama. The bailout failed as politics and, as evidenced by Monday's selloff on Wall Street, it also failed as policy.

Democrats are already rushing to promote Obama's coming victory as a mandate for their "progressive" agenda. Conservatives need to begin telling the true story of McCain's defeat, which must be admitted before it can be explained.

Too close for comfort? That's NORTH DAKOTA!


Hysterical Republicans, who have already said kaddish over McCain's rotting, bloated political corpse, only have one goal in mind now: saving the ability to obstruct progressive legislation through the filibuster. Panic has set in as Democrats approach the magic 60 seats they need to pass Obama's agenda for change. "Obama at 56 seats makes life hard, but a lot more bearable than Obama at 60 seats. The death of the filibuster would be like losing the White House all over again."

Because of Lieberman Democrats actually need 11 seats not 10. Can they make it? Well... it doesn't look easy. But it isn't as impossible as it seemed last month. There are no Democratic seats in jeopardy and two open Republican seats-- New Mexico and Virginia-- are safely in the bag. The open Republican seat in Colorado and the stolen Republican seat in New Hampshire seem very likely to switch as well. Every recent poll shows Hagan beating Dole in North Carolina and Jeff Merkley and Mark Begich are looking like decent bets to defeat reactionary and corrupt incumbents in Oregon and Alaska. Al Franken has been gaining on Norm Coleman and that would make 8 seats-- still 3 shy of the magic Lieberman-free filibuster-proof majority. Democrats need to win 3 of these uphill races:

Mississippi- Ronnie Musgrove v Roger Wicker
Texas- Rick Noriega v John Cornyn
Oklahoma- Andrew Rice v James Inhofe
Maine- Tom Allen v Susan Collins
Georgia- Jim Martin v Saxby Chambliss
Nebraska- Scott Kleeb v Mike Johanns
Idaho- Larry LaRocco v Jim Risch
Kentucky- Bruce Lunsford (not a reliable Democrat) v Mitch McConnell

This late in the game donations for Senate candidates would do the most good for Andrew Rice, Rick Noriega, Tom Allen, Jeff Merkley and Al Franken. You can donate to Al's campaign at Red to Blue MN and the other 4 are at the Blue America special Senate page. Anyone who donates to all 4 of these Senate candidates (Rice, Noriega, Allen and Merkley)-- any amount-- will get a brand new copy of journalist Marty Beckerman's incredible book, Dumbocracy. Marty spent four years with political extremists of all stripes and delivers a searing, hilarious indictment of the radical True Believer mentality, exposing their tactics-- and their never-ending hypocrisies-- with comical, over-the-top glee worthy of South Park orThe Daily Show. You'll be rolling on the floor laughing-- and you'll know you contributed to putting 4 exceptionally good senators in office to replace 4 of the very worst in America. Imagine no more James Inhofe to obstruct sound environmental policies, no more John Cornyn to coddle Wall Street and Big Oil, no more Joe Lieberman in drag Susan Collins to rubber stamp everything that comes her way while claiming to be "independent," and no more Gordon Smith, the Senate's very worst hypocrite and most dishonest member. Right here.

You want to see why I keep bringing this up? Please watch this three minute section of debate between James Inhofe and Andrew Rice:




UPDATE: HOW LONG BEFORE UTAH AND IDAHO BECOME BATTLEGROUND STATES?

The latest polling shows McCain's confused campaign and vile smear tactics have even repulsed Missouri voters!

Obama 51%
McCain 43%

And some late-breaking news in Oregon. A brand new SUSA/KATU poll shows Merkley beating Smith decisively, 46%- 41%. WOW!!!!

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4 Comments:

At 12:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Time to ask ourselves:

"Whose side are YOU on?!"

 
At 1:02 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Democrats don't need 60, they need to do what the republicans wanted to do but didn't have the guts to do and that is pass the nuclear option. Of course, you've always got the blue dogs. What's a progressive to do? The country is hopelessly stupid. It's fallen and it soon won't be able to get up.

 
At 6:42 AM, Blogger Minnesota Central said...

60 is going to be real tough.
Minnesota is very unpredictable. Coleman is disliked by hardcore Conservatives who have openly suggested throwing him under the bus … and he’s not running as a Republican … in fact, Al Franken is the only candidate running with a party label on their yard signs.
The question in Minnesota is will the Independence Party candidate win ? Dean Barkley worked for Jesse Ventura and served as Paul Wellstone’s replacement in the lame duck session. Barkley has not had one TV commercial yet is polling 14 to 19 %. In the most recent Senatorial debate, Barkley had better zingers on Coleman than Franken.
The polling is erratic as the Independents don’t easily fall into a category … I got a telephone call asking if I supported Coleman or Franken … I asked about Barkley and the response was that he’s not on their polling list. That’s a big mistake as they cannot get a fair reading. The Independence Party has determined the last three gubernatorial elections … winning one and giving the other two to the Republicans.
This race will not be finalized until sometime mid-day on Wednesday.

Oh, and by the way, Joe Lieberman has come to the aid of Coleman … Thanks Joe !

 
At 9:13 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think you're wrong on the best place to contribute. Idaho has got to be the cheapest Senate race in the country, and $200,000 to $300,000 could be decisive. Anyone disagree? Risch has such high negatives already, and several independents peelingoff votes. I can't believe some of the big money guys, or independent groups, or DSCC for goodness sake, don't get this. Comment?

 

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