The Cook Report Warns Of A GOP 2008 "Worst Case Scenario": "For House Republicans, already dark days are getting darker"

[Howie reports from the road:]

New Cook Report (by subscription) ratings. And keep in mind Cook is a nortoriously lagging indicator. When they say "Lean Democratic," it means Nancy should pull out the Bible and swear the candidate in!


House: GOP Staring At 2008 Worst Case Scenario

October 16, 2008

For House Republicans, already dark days are getting darker. Movement in Congressional races tends to accelerate in mid-October, and with the exception of Rep. Tim Mahoney’s district (FL-16), every district on the move is headed in Democrats’ direction. Heavy Democratic spending and the GOP’s cash shortfall are taking its toll on Republican candidates in districts that the committees have targeted all cycle long. But the state of the economy and the presidential race are exposing weak GOP polling numbers even in seats neither party had given much thought.

Once again, this is a political environment in which top-tier GOP candidates can lose, and second and even third-tier Democrats can break into contention late in the game. We are releasing ratings changes in 25 districts across the country, and revising our outlook to a Democratic gain of 20 to 25 seats in the House.

Ratings Changes

AZ-01 OPEN (Renzi) Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
AZ-05 Harry Mitchell Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
AZ-08 Gabrielle Giffords Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
CA-03 Dan Lungren Solid Republican to Likely Republican*
CA-04 OPEN (Doolittle) Likely Republican to Lean Republican*
CA-46 Dana Rohrabacher Solid Republican to Likely Republican*
CA-50 Brian Bilbray Solid Republican to Lean Republican*
CT-05 Chris Murphy Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
GA-12 John Barrow Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
IL-08 Melissa Bean Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
IL-14 Bill Foster Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
IN-03 Mark Souder Likely Republican to Lean Republican
IN-09 Baron Hill Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
KS-02 Nancy Boyda Toss Up to Lean Democratic
MD-01 OPEN (Gilchrest) Lean Republican to Toss Up
MS-01 Travis Childers Toss Up to Lean Democratic
MO-09 OPEN (Hulshof) Lean Republican to Toss Up
NH-02 Paul Hodes Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
OH-02 Jean Schmidt Likely Republican to Lean Republican*
OH-16 OPEN (Regula) Toss Up to Lean Democratic
PA-04 Jason Altmire Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
PA-08 Patrick Murphy Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
SC-01 Henry Brown Solid Republican to Likely Republican
TN-04 Lincoln Davis Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
VA-11 OPEN (Davis) Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic


Unfortunately, many of these -- most, in fact -- are Democrats from deep in the bowels of the Republican wing of the Democratic Party. -- Howie

UPDATE: I'M BACK

And I've put stars next to the races where there is a progressive Democrat in the race, one worth extra support. And I guess tomorrow Cook can declare the CA-11 over and Dean Andal a dead duck.

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