Will Obama Get A Bounce Out Of This Convention?

John Amato told me there's a huge TV viewership. I notice it sounds great on radio when I'm driving around. A few days ago the National Journal polled a bunch of bloggers with the question "How big of a bounce-- if any-- will his convention give Obama?" This was before the really excellent speeches by Michelle Obama, Brian Schweitzer, Ted Kennedy, Hillary Clinton and Bill Clinton-- let alone tomorrow's Obama speech. A plurality of bloggers-- me included-- picked 4-6 points. Now I'm thinking it could be even more, although sometimes I get in a darker mood and I agree with Chris Bowers that something's wrong-- I chalk it up to racism-- and there may be no bounce at all...

Here's how the normal bloggers pegged it:



And this is what the extreme right wing shills and GOP plants thought:



My friend Mike just watched Melissa Etheridge play at the Pepsi Center and he says she was incredible. But as for a bounce... he's worried. He-- like a lot of people I know-- says he'd "like to see the Democrats hit McCain harder. It seems they give him a pass on a lot cause he has white hair and was in prison."

I have a feeling that's because they want to appeal to independents, not the hard core activists. We'll see-- and in any case, next week's Republican HateFest in St. Paul should make the Democratic Convention sparkle in retrospect. The Republicans are seriously divided and their coalition is falling apart. A couple dozen members of Congress-- including big names like Senators Susan Collins, Gordon Smith, John Sununu, Pat Roberts, Ted Stevens, Chuck Hagel, Elizabeth Dole-- won't even show up and are praying their constituents don't remember that they're Republicans. Half the Michigan GOP members of Congress are "too busy" to come.