REPUBLICANS HAVE NO REASON FOR POLITICAL OPTIMISM-- THE TIME HAS COME TO PAY THE PIPER

Dirty Dick Pombo isn't in prison or on trial and, rather miraculously, he hasn't even been indicted yet. But-- to the disappointment of many Democrats-- he's not running for his old seat in northern California either. Instead two local Republican pols are getting ready to battle each other to face straight-arrow new-comer Rep. Jerry McNerney. One, Guy Houston, defines the word hack. He's been in one office or another for well over a decade and he's about to be termed out of his Assembly seat. Many constituents of McNerney's, especially in the western part of the 11th CD, are also residents of Houston's 15th Assembly District. As an Assemblyman he's been a garden variety wingnut. His Republican opponent, Dean Andal, a former Assemblyman, has been even more of an extremist and now works for a developer.

A few days ago, Tom Cole (R-OK), the hapless head of the NRCC-- their version of the DCCC-- laid out his plan for how the GOP could take control of the House next year. (Most more realistic and more honest Republicans are looking for ways to minimize expected losses, losses likely to be as catastrophic as last year's. But Cole painted a rosy, if highly dubious, picture in May 9th's Roll Call. "Almost 20 of the 30 seats Democrats picked up on their way to winning the House majority sit in Republican districts where ambitious GOP pols have been waiting years for the rare opportunity to run for Congress... Many well-established Republican incumbents went down to defeat in November, some of whom were ethically scarred. Given the bent of the districts-- 18 Democratic freshmen represent areas that President Bush carried in 2004 with anywhere from 51 percent of the vote to 62 percent-- local officials who have been waiting their turn are eager to run against those new Democratic Congressmen, Cole said."

In light of Cole's optimism, let's look at CA-11. Bush took the district with 53% against Gore and with 54% against Kerry. On the other hand not only did Dianne Feinstein win in the 11th CD, so did the far more progressive Barbara Boxer. And McNerney beat Pombo convincingly-- by over 10,000 votes, 53%- 47%. There are districts around the country where Republicans may have a realistic shot, CA-11, while not solidly blue yet, won't be one of them. In fact, in California, the GOP is going to have to put their resources into defense, where a slew of ethically-challenged Republican incumbents-- from Jerry Lewis, Ken Calvert, Brian Billbray, Gary Miller in the southern part of the state to John Doolittle in the northern part of the state-- are under investigation for one thing or another or, in some cases, for many things.

In fact, Doolittle's case has moved into high gear. The House leadership has kicked him off his committees, indictment seems imminent, a plea bargain likely, and it's a real stretch to imagine that he will run again-- even if he isn't in prison. Right-wing radio talk show host/nutcase Tom Sullivan says the vultures are circling. He's one of them. A pack of right-wingers are salivating at the prospect of Doolittle's political demise, particularly Assemblyman Ted Gaines, former State Senator Rico Oller, and the very ambitious Mr. Sullivan, whose remarks on radio over the year, nicely compiled, will be all Charlie Brown needs as ammo against him.


The RNCC seems to be putting forth quite a few self-financing vanity candidates with little chance of winning but who will at least be defeated on their own dimes. Examples of Republicans with virtually no chance to win are former New York Republican State Committee Chairman Sandy Treadwell, a wealthy dilettante who wants to run against Kirsten Gillibrand in NY-20. An even better challenger for Gillibrand would be John Faso, an also-ran in the NY gubernatorial contest. He couldn't even crack 30%. Gillibrand's solid moderate stances are very much in sync with her new district and she has nothing to worry about from either of these clowns. Even more secure is John Hall (NY-19) who will probably face a fashion exec, Andrew Saul, who has always dreamed of running for office and can buy his way into the GOP nomination. The other New York seat they lost, the 24th, is now firmly held by Mike Arcuri and the Republicans haven't been able to find an even modestly credible opponent for him and will probably be stuck with a disastrous re-run of 2004 with Ray Meier, who was thrashed by Arcuri last time and should absolutely bury him next year if he's foolish enough to try again. There's some rich construction company owner, Richard Hanna, who fancies himself a congressman and a minor state senator, James Seward, who would like a shot. None of them would have one.

Observers thought the GOP might have a better chance to pick up Mark Foley's old seat, but credible Republican candidates the RNCC sought to recruit-- particularly state Rep. Joe Negron who ran last time-- have turned them down. Tim Mahoney, a recent convert from countryclub Republicanism himself, has plenty of his own money and hasn't made any of the kinds of waves that might cause constituents to kick out an incumbent. Among possible opponents are an extraordinarily lackluster bunch: state Rep. Gayle Harrell, Palm Beach City councilman Hal Valeche and Tom Rooney, the grandson of Pittsburgh Steelers owner Art Rooney. 


A handful of defeated Republicans are probably going to try again, a likely recipe for disaster. Mike Sodrel has a shot against Baron Hill in Indiana's 9th CD since the GOP registration advantage will come into play in a presidential year. Republicans are less certain about over-the-cliff extremist Jim Ryun in Kansas' second district being able to successfully challenge Nancy Boyda who beat him 51-47% last time out and has shown herself to be a moderate, independent voice that fits her district to a "t." It might be more of a contest if state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins is the Republican nominee instead, since she is generally considered sane. Carol Shea-Porter will face Jeb Bradley again, in a district that has been trending more and more blue.

My guess is that the three most endangered Democrats are Nick Lampson in TX-22 (Tom DeLay's old seat), Jason Altmire in PA-04 and Chris Carney in PA-10. Carney won his very Republican district because the incumbent beat and choked his young mistress. The Republicans don't have an opponent yet, but they will. Carney has chosen to play Republican-lite, completely alienating activists and the Democratic base. If the Republicans don't find a credible opponent, he might have a chance to hold on. Altmire has taken a similar Republican-lite approach, though not as radically or as off-puttingly as Carney's. On the other hand, he already has strong opposition, including the rubber stamp ex-congresswoman he beat (Melissa Hart) and popular Pittsburgh football player Lynn Swann (who was swamped when he ran for governor but managed to eke out a modest victory in PA-04). TX-22 is warming to Lampson and I would say he's favored to be re-elected at this point. Expect a bloody and damaging Republican primary, probably between 3 far right extremists, Sugarland Mayor David Wallace, Harris County Tax Assessor Paul Bettencourt and that kooky woman whose name no one can pronounce who he beat last time.

In his NY Times column this morning Frank Rich went a long way towards explaining the precipitous decline in the value of the Republican brand, a decline that dooms all of Cole's efforts and masks a pervasive panic that is settling in among GOP officeholders.

It could be argued that the Iraq fiasco, disastrous to American interests as it is, actually masks the magnitude of the destruction this presidency has visited both on the country in general and the G.O.P. in particular.

By my rough, conservative calculation-- feel free to add-- there have been corruption, incompetence, and contracting or cronyism scandals in these cabinet departments: Defense, Education, Justice, Interior, Homeland Security, Veterans Affairs, Health and Human Services, and Housing and Urban Development. I am not counting State, whose deputy secretary, a champion of abstinence-based international AIDS funding, resigned last month in a prostitution scandal, or the General Services Administration, now being investigated for possibly steering federal favors to Republican Congressional candidates in 2006. Or the Office of Management and Budget, whose chief procurement officer was sentenced to prison in the Abramoff fallout. I will, however, toss in a figure that reveals the sheer depth of the overall malfeasance: no fewer than four inspectors general, the official watchdogs charged with investigating improprieties in each department, are themselves under investigation simultaneously-- an all-time record.

Wrongdoing of this magnitude does not happen by accident, but it is not necessarily instigated by a Watergate-style criminal conspiracy. When corruption is this pervasive, it can also be a byproduct of a governing philosophy. That’s the case here. That Bush-Rove style of governance, the common denominator of all the administration scandals, is the Frankenstein creature that stalks the G.O.P. as it faces 2008. It has become the Republican brand and will remain so, even after this president goes, until courageous Republicans disown it and eradicate it.