WHICH REPUBLICANS ARE MOST LIKELY TO RETIRE NEXT YEAR RATHER THAN FACE IGNOMINIOUS DEFEAT AT THE POLLS?

Obviously Allard doesn't count since he already announced he won't run again, in effect ceding a Republican seat in Colorado to Democrat Mark Udall. The most often mentioned are Elizabeth Dole (R-NC), John Warner (R-VA), Pete "Sneaky Pete" Domenici (R-NM), Thad Cochran (R-MS), Ted Stevens (R-AK), and Larry Craig (R-ID).

My guess is that Cochran, though not eager to spend the rest of his professional life in the minority and feeling his 70 years, is one of the least likely of this batch to retire. He says he hasn't decided yet but will by December. In the unlikely event that he does retire, expect a fierce battle between extreme hard right lunatic Chip Pickering and populist Democrat Mike Moore, a former Mississippi Attorney General. I am also doubtful that Stevens will retire, although he's suffering from advanced and debilitating dementia and threatens to retire every time someone says the bridge to nowhere might never be built-- or in any way disagrees with him. Running at 85 years old, though is quite daunting. Recent exertions in fundraising make me think Dole wants to go out fighting. And rumors about far right extremists Cornyn and Inhofe considering retirement are too good to be true.

Now the ones who probably are retiring: Larry Craig (outed from his closet), Pete "Sneaky Pete" Domenici (senile and criminal), and John Warner (old and depressed). Warner’s first-quarter fundraising sum of $500 is setting off yet another round of speculation that the aging senator will retire, leaving an open seat in 2008. Both Macacawitz and Rep. Tom Davis are salivating at the prospect of replacing him, although if he retires, former Democratic governor Mark Warner will run and win the seat.

Domenici is falling apart physically and mentally and has been seen walking around the Senate halls in his underwear and pjs. He's also grown nasty, even vicious as his mental capacities have diminished. At 75, he doesn't want to give up his seat but his recent exposure as one of the villains in the firings of the U.S. Attorneys-- along with his protege, Rep. Heather Wilson-- he could well be defeated even if he runs again. He has been raising a real campaign warchest, nearly $400,000, most of it in corporate bribes from the Big Business interests he consistently serves.


UPDATE: THE FIX IS IN

Not really. But Chris Cillizza at The Fix has his early predictions up about which senate seats are most vulnerable next year. He thinks the 3 most likely states to switch parties are Colorado (where Allard is retiring), New Hampshire (where Sununu's extreme right voting record and rubber stamp demeanor are hopelessly out of step with the moderate and independent-- and increasingly blue-- state), and Minnesota (where Coleman has the same problem as Sununu).


UPDATE: LARRY CRAIG DIDN'T FILE???

The only Republican incumbent who didn't provide the FEC with a quarterly report was... Larry Craig. There can only be two answers to why: he was either too busy at Bergdorf's picking out a new wardrobe for his post-Senate career or... he forgot.