IRAQ CIVIL WAR

I don't want to push this analogy too hard but the destruction of one of the holiest sites in the Shi'a Muslim world 2 days ago was Iraq's Ft Sumter moment. An Iraqi civil war has been on for some time-- despite the Bush Regime's and Wes Clark's contention that we're occupying Iraq to prevent one-- but the blowing up of the Golden Mosque, and the ensuing orgy of violence and mayhem, means only that we've come one step closer to where even Bush will recognize that it's too late to prevent a civil war. CNN reported that "the most powerful Sunni Muslim party quit talks to form a new government Thursday after Sunnis were attacked-- and many killed-- following the bombing of Samarra's... Golden Mosque."

Last summer Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi was already saying the civil war had begun. Although he is widely considered to be a Bush Regime lackey, Allawi told a U.K. paper that “The problem is that the Americans have no vision and no clear policy on how to go about in Iraq... We are practically in stage one of a civil war as we speak.” Like most people in trouble who have counted on Bush's word, he was dismayed by Bush's tendency to promise the world-- see: New Orleans reconstruction-- and deliver nothing. Allawi said that he had discussed the urgency of rebuilding Iraq’s military with Bush and Rumsfeld last year. “Bush earmarked $5.7 billion... but I did not receive the money,” Allawi said. (I wonder why no one suggested he get in touch with Jack Abramoff, James Baker or any number of known Bush bagmen and kickback experts.)

Meanwhile, Iraq isn't really a functioning state. Unfathomable violence, foreign occupation, a complete breakdown of civil society, endemic corruption, utter despair everywhere... are the hallmarks of George Bush's post-Saddam Iraq. The Shi’ites (nearly 60% of Iraq's population), who endured decades of oppression under Saddam, are threatening to purge former members of the (overwhelmingly Sunni) Ba’ath Party from the army and all levels of government, a move that is provoking fierce retaliation from the Sunnis.

Meanwhile the Kurds in the northern third of the country have their own functioning-- and largely peaceful-- de facto state and are determined to Iraq fall to pieces so that they can get their own independent Kurdistan. It appears that most Shi'a would also like their own-- oil-rich, theocratic-- country too, allied with neighboring Iran and free of haughty, aggressive Sunnis (many of whom believe in things that are anathema to fundamentalist Shi'a, like a secular society and equality for women. If only Bush would have thought a little about these things before his precipitous invasion and occupation of Iraq! But just to give you a clue about how utterly ill-prepared his regime was for Iraq, keep in mind that in 2003 they promised the American people that taxpayers' share of the cost of the entire operation would be $1.7 billion. So far $265 billion has been spent-- most of it going to Bush cronies-- and he just asked for tens of billions more.