Republican Gerrymandered OH-12 Special Election Now Rated A Toss Up

OH-12 should be a competitive district. But the Republican-controlled legislature gerrymandered it in such a way as to make it safe for Republicans. Pat Tiberi, first elected in 2000, has never had a competitive race, not just because the Ohio Democratic Party died some years ago, but because Democrats knew the boundaries made running there a waste of time. A Republican has held the congressional seat since 1983. But, sick of Trump, Tiberi decided to retire this year and OH-12 is now an open seat with an August 7 special election. The district spreads out from Columbus' northern University District and the suburbs north and east of the city-- Worthington, Dubin, Westerville, New Albany, Gahanna to Delaware County in the north and way up to Mansfield and Bellville and as far east as Newark, Zanesville and beyond. Trump had no trouble beating Hillary in this R+7 district. He took 53.2% to her 41.9%. But yesterday... out of the blue, the Cook Report announced that the OH-12 special election is now a toss up. Where did that come from?

Like I said, the Ohio Democratic Party is essentially dead and there are no thrilling candidates among the half dozen or so Democrats running for the party nomination May 8. The establishment candidate is Franklin County Recorder Danny O'Connor although Franklin County Sheriff Zach Scott is supposed to be competitive with him, as is a 27-year-old Galena farmer, John Russell, the progressive and grassroots activist in the race. Scott has gone out of his was to claim the mantle of the Republican wing of the Democratic Party and to make sure voters know he's not a progressive-- a really dumb more in a Democratic primary. O'Connor is nearly as bad, but keeping it more to himself. Both loudly claim they wouldn't vote for Pelosi as speaker.

On the Republican side, there are even more candidates with a bitter primary bitting far right crackpot Melanie Leneghan-- backed by the neo-fascist Freedom Caucus (and endorsed by Jim Jordan and Mark Meadows)-- Troy Balderson, an establishment centrist endorsed by Tiberi (who put $150,000 into the race), and the local fave, Carol O'Brien, a county prosector. As of the March 31 FEC reporting deadline, there were six candidates who had raised enough money to run competitive campaigns:

• Tim Kane (R)- $427,493
• Troy Balderson (R)- $415,724
• Melanie Leneghan (R)- $375,901
• Carol O'Brien (R)- $193,387
• Danny O'Connor (D)- $161,951
• Kevin Bacon (R)- $146,928

So how does Cook call it a toss-up when it isn't even clear who the candidates will be? Trump. They're now assuming the election will be a referendum on the increasingly unpopular Trump-- especially in Ohio's most highly educated and most affluent district.

Never Heard Of Pat Tiberi? He's A Behind The Scenes Congressional Power Who's Retiring

John Kasich likes to paint himself as the most bipartisan politician in America. That's camouflage. He happily signed one of the most egregious gerrymandering bills in the country, cutting Ohio up, which voted for Obama both times he's ran and elected progressive Democrat Sherrod Brown both times he ran. Because Kasich did, 50/50 swing state Ohio now has 12 Republicans in Congress and 4 Democrats instead of 8 and 8. The state legislature is a joke. The districts are so ruthlessly gerrymandered that there are 24 Republicans in the state Senate and just 9 Democrats and the state House has 66 Republicans and just 33 Democrats.

As you have probably read by now, the quietly powerful congressman who succeeded Kasich when he retired from Congress, Pat Tiberi, is resigning to take a job as head of the Ohio Business Roundtable. Tiberi never makes the headlines but I see his name all the time when I check to see which members of Congress take the extra big bribes from various interest groups. He's always on every list. Take the Finance Sector-- he's a senior member of House Ways and Means so of course the banksters want him on their side. In fact, he was up for the chairmanship but was pushed aside by a more right-wing nut from Texas, Kevin Brady. Since first being elected in 2000, Tiberi has taken $6,734,095 from the sector, the 4th most of any current member of Congress. Last year alone he took in $1,132,932 from the banksters and so far this year-- $520,000, 6th most of anyone in the House.

A mainstream conservative and former Boehner ally, he'll be out of Congress by the end of January, triggering a special election to fill the rest of his 10 month term. In 2016, Tiberi raised $4,555,939 and spent $1,890,368 on his reelection campaign. (He has over $5 million on hand right now). His opponent in 2016, progressive Democrat Ed Albertson, who is running again this cycle, was ignored by the DCCC and only managed to raise $28,450. Right now Albertson has $9,209.27 in his campaign war chest.

OH-12 includes all of 3 central Ohio counties-- Delaware Licking County and Morrow-- and parts of Franklin, Muskingum, Marion and Richland counties. Most of the voters live in Franklin, Delaware and Licking (in that order). In 2015 the district had an R+8 PVI. It's slightly less red now-- R+7. Trump and Clinton both did worse than Romney and Obama in the district, but Trump won, 53.2% to 41.9%.

Tiberi wound up with 251,266 votes (66.6%) to Albertson's 112,638 (29.8%). That looks horrible for the Dems' prospects, right? And it is but I want to point something out. The 435 congressional districts have approximately 711,000 people. They're not exactly the same population-wise but they're not that different either. Last year Albertson did considerably better than many incumbents who were reelected. Blue Dog Jim Costa, a California Central Valley Democrat won reelection with just 72,111 and Republican David Valadao, also in the Central Valley, was reelected with even fewer votes, 68,481. Valadao's Democratic opponent, Emelio Huerta-- who, unlike Albertson, got some very substantial financial help from Pelosi's House Majority PAC ($1,751,651) only got 49,643. And, like Albertson, Huerta is running against this cycle.

Which leads to the question... can Albertson win in the age of Trump? Or will the DCCC recruit a more conservative GOP-lite candidate and muscle Albertson out of the race? In its first-blush report on Tiberi's resignation, the Columbus Dispatch didn't have much to offer on what would happen in the district next.

Sources close to Tiberi said a variety of factors played into his exit. His mother died earlier this year and his father is in ill health. House Speaker Paul Ryan last year bypassed Tiberi to select Rep. Kevin Brady, R-Texas, as the chairman of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, despite the fact that Tiberi had support from the majority of his colleagues on the Republican Steering Committee.

Another loss: the retirement of House Speaker John Boehner in 2015. The two were close political allies, with Tiberi benefiting politically from his close friendship with the West Chester Republican.

And a dysfunctional political environment in Washington made him “miserable” said a source close to Tiberi.

The veteran congressman, who represents Ohio’s 12th congressional district, had considered running for the U.S. Senate in 2018. He ended that speculation in May, announcing that he didn’t want a Senate campaign to take time away from working on tax reform from his position as a senior member of the House Ways and Means Committee. Tiberi had more than $6.6 million in campaign funds at the beginning of the month.

Tiberi, 54, was elected to the House in 2000, replacing John Kasich, who had once hired him as an aide in Kasich’s congressional office in Columbus. Tiberi, who grew up in Columbus, also served four terms in the Ohio House in the 1990s.

He is chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee’s subcommittee on health and is currently chairman of the Joint Economic Committee, a House-Senate committee that examines economic issues. And earlier this year, he became the chairman of the House “Main Street Caucus,” a group of moderate Republicans who billed themselves as the “governing” wing of the Republican Party.

Kasich isn't interested in running for the seat and Tiberi already had an extremist lunatic primarying him, Brandon Grisez, someone who Bannon probably would have gotten behind had Tiberi not decided to retire.

Will Trump's And Ryan's Greed-Driven Tax Cuts For The Rich, Sink The Republican Party?

This morning's post on Bannon's attempt to steal all McConnell's fat cat donors is about how the whole project hinges on the tax cuts. The fat cats want their tax cuts. If McConnell can't deliver, they want his head. They don't really care about much else-- and Bannon, Ryan and the rest of the Republican caucus have that firmly in mind... as they walk into the eye of the hurricane. Let's start with Mnuchin's moronic threat this week that the Wall Street bubble will burst if Congress doesn't pass the tax cuts. "There is no question that the rally in the stock market has baked into it reasonably high expectations of us getting tax cuts and tax reform done. To the extent we get the tax deal done, the stock market will go up higher. But there’s no question in my mind that if we don’t get it done you’re going to see a reversal of a significant amount of these gains." What an asshole!



Unfortunately for Republicans in Congress a new poll from CNN shows the public is not sold on the Trump-Ryan tax cuts for the rich. 52% are already saying they oppose it and only 34%-- the Trump hardcore basically-- support it. 81% of Democrats are against it; 70% of Republicans favor it and independents are with the Democrats on this-- 50% oppose and just 35% favor the plan.

37% of Americans say the tax plan won't make any significant difference in their lives, while 31% say it will make their lives worse. Just 24% think it will make their families better off. 35% of voters think it will hurt the economy and just 31% think it will help the economy. As for the budget deficit, 38% recognize the plan would balloon the deficit and just 22% are taken in by Trump's lies that it will shrink the deficit.

Meanwhile Burgess Everett and Josh Dawsey, writing for Politico yesterday, reported that the Regime and some Republican members of Congress "are increasingly worried that taxes will go the way of Obamacare repeal in the Senate: Months of bickering ending in extreme embarrassment... [S]ome senators are pushing their own tax proposals, while others are increasingly emboldened to defy the Republican president. It’s a dangerous mix considering that McConnell can lose only two votes assuming Democrats band together in opposition." Trump and everyone else involved is already setting up everything so that McConnell will be the fall guy if this fails.

“We look at the Senate and go: ‘What the hell is going on?’” White House budget director Mick Mulvaney said in an interview Friday.

“The House passed health care, the House has already passed its budget, which is the first step of tax reform. The Senate hasn't done any of that. Hell, the Senate can’t pass any of our confirmations,” Mulvaney fumed in an interview, slapping a table for emphasis. “You ask me if the Republican-controlled Senate is an impediment to the administration’s agenda: All I can tell you is so far, the answer’s yes.”

The revulsion for the Senate’s age-old traditions and byzantine procedure boiled over in public repeatedly on Monday. Trump complained in front of TV cameras that the Senate is “not getting the job done” and said he sees where Steve Bannon-- his former chief strategist now planning to run primary challengers against incumbent Republican senators-- “is coming from.”

And House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI), when asked Monday to name the biggest impediment to tax reform, replied: “You ever heard of the United States Senate before?"

...McConnell is expected to hold a vote this week on the budget-- a precondition for tax reform-- and GOP aides expect it to pass. That will relieve some of the pressure on the chamber, which has been receiving flak nonstop from donors, House members and the president since the health care implosion this summer.

Administration officials are hoping that frustration produces enough pressure to force the Senate to pass tax reform. But already, there are signs of trouble.

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) is so skeptical that the Senate can enact the GOP's tax framework that he’s begun pitching his own tax plans to colleagues. It would shift the burden of corporate taxes onto shareholders and allow individuals to opt out of the existing tax code and into a system without the confusing array of tax preferences and deductions that people can now choose.

It’s radically different from what congressional leaders and the president proposed. But Johnson said in an interview that leadership’s plan “is going to be very difficult to pass. We’ve already seen with the outline now, with the principles given, that’s going to be a challenge.”

“I don’t want to be a problem child here, but what I’m offering is a plan B,” Johnson added. “If they can’t get the votes … I’ve got an alternative.”

Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-TX) brushed off any negativity about the Senate's work, insisting that he never thought the party’s agenda is “off track.” But he said the sniping from Mulvaney and Ryan-- and skepticism from some Republican senators about the prospects for tax reform-- is not helpful.

"I don’t think that sort of thing is very constructive myself,” Cornyn said Monday.

The House is sure to labor to pass tax reform, too. Members from high-tax states are already rebelling against plans to gut the deduction for state and local taxes. But two White House officials said the most serious concerns are in the Senate.

States where the federal deduction for state and local taxes in very important are mostly states with Democratic senators, but Wisconsin's Johnson could be the most likely senator to be in trouble, followed by Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst from Iowa and Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania. Where this could really become an issue though, is in the House, where dozens of Republicans represent districts in states where taxpayers will see thousands of dollars in deductions vaporize. These are three dozen Republicans +1 who would likely be less electable if they vote for the tax plan:

• CA-39- Ed Royce
• CA-25- Steve Knight
• CA-45- Mimi Walters
• CA-49- Darrell Issa
• CA-48- Dana Rohrabacher
• CA-10- Jeff Denham
• CA-22- Devin Nunes
• CA-21- David Valadao
• IA-01- Rod Blum
• IA-03- David Young
• IL-06- Peter Roskam
• IL-13 Rodney Davis
• NJ-07- Leonard Lance
• NJ-11- Rodney Frelinhuysen
• NJ-03 Tom MacArthur
• NY-01- Lee Zeldin
• NY-02- Peter King
• NY-11- Dan Donovan
• NY-19- John Faso
• NY-22- Claudia Tenney
• NY-23- Tom Reed
• NY-24- John Katko
• NY-21- Elise Stafanik
• OH-01- Steve Chabot
• OH-10- Michael Turner
• OH-12- Pat Tiberi
• OH-14- David Joyce
• PA-06- Ryan Costello
• PA-07- Pat Meehan
• PA-08- Brian Fitzpatrick
• PA-16- Lloyd Smucker
• TX-07- John Culberson
• TX-21- Lamar Smith
• TX-32- Pete Sessions
• VA-07- Dave Brat
• VA-10- Barbara Comstock
• WI-01- Paul Ryan

3 dozen Republicans +1 and that +1 is Paul Ryan, Trump's top congressional ally on tax cuts for the rich. His Democratic opponent, Randy Bryce has been campaigning on that in a big way. Yesterday he sent a letter to his supporters reminding them that "No matter how many times President Donald Trump and Speaker Paul Ryan may claim differently, the GOP's proposed tax plan benefits the wealthy-- not working people. After Donald Trump announced the framework of the GOP tax reform proposal, his mouthpiece in the House, Paul Ryan, started spouting the same, vague explanation we've heard before. He claimed the plan is about the low- and middle-class and not "about people who are really high-income earners getting a break." I didn't need PolitiFact to tell me Ryan's statement was mostly false, but it was nice to see him held accountable for a moment. Under Paul Ryan's Plan, The top 1% receive 80% of the tax cut. Billionaires like Donald Trump could earn up to 20% more. Multimillionaires like Paul Ryan will earn over 10% more. The middle class, like me and a lot of you, will get at most, just 1% more, and in some cases, actually see a tax increase. Trump and Ryan's plan also includes a loophole that makes it easier for big businesses to avoid paying taxes on money made overseas-- which would encourage them to move more of their business out of the country and away from American workers. Now tell me, which part of that would help working people? Trump and Ryan do not have our best interests at heart-- they care more about padding the pockets of the millionaires and big businesses that fund their campaigns. I promise to fight for working families in Congress because I know what it means to live paycheck to paycheck."

And he didn't even get into the loss of local and state tax deductions which will hit Wisconsin voters harder than it does most states. Illinois voters will be hit even harder-- which isn't stopping the Republican congressmen00 like Rodney Davis-- from backing Trump and Ryan. We asked Davis; progressive opponent, Dr. David Gill, how this impacts the middle and working class voters in IL-13. "I've long argued that it's past time for the millionaires and the billionaires to start paying their fair share here in America. But rather than taking a step toward reducing the overwhelming economic inequality in this country, the Trump Tax Plan moves in precisely the opposite direction. And it amazes me that my opponent, Rodney Davis, supports this tax plan. Our district is filled with people who will suffer real and significant economic pain with the elimination of the federal tax deduction for state and local taxes. Of course, I shouldn't be surprised-- virtually everything that Mr. Davis does is designed to increase the wealth of the already-rich and the large corporations who pour money into his campaign coffers. This leads to overwhelming hypocrisy on his part at times; I remember when I ran against him in 2012, he repeatedly screeched about our $18 trillion deficit and whined that 'It's not fair to leave such a deficit to my children and grandchildren.' Given his zeal to follow the marching orders of his party and his wealthy donors, and the furthering of the deficit caused by the Trump tax plan, it appears that Rodney has grown much less concerned about the future of his children and their children."

UPDATE: They Did It

The Senate passed a budget tonight-- the Republicans in the Senate to be exact-- that cuts Medicaid by a trillion dollars and Medicare by half a trillion dollars so that it will be easier for them to give the richest 1% a tax cut. Unbelievable!