Trump Multi-Faceted Vote Buying Schemes

On Tuesday evening, Trump held one of his lunatic rallies for the pigs in the Wildwood, New Jersey area who support him and his newest puppet, former DCCC-Blue Dog Jeff Van Drew. Trump asserted, absurdly, that Van Drew was a symbol of the future. Then he pulled out of his ass a new refrain he'll be gaslighting America with, claiming "that an increasing number of Americans were 'disgusted' by congressional Democrats who, he said, are 'obsessed with demented hoaxes, this crazy witch hunt and deranged partisan crusades'... They’ve spent the last three years and probably even before I came down on that beautiful escalator with our beautiful future first lady, trying to overthrow the last election, and we will make sure that they face another crushing defeat in the next election." His moron supporters eat that crap up but normal Americans are ready to see him go. The latest YouGov poll, just released by The Economist, shows that if the congressional elections were held today the Democrats would win 48-39% and that 47% of registered voters (and that includes Republicans) want Trump removed while just 46% oppose removing him.

Trump paid Van Drew to switch parties. This is part of the payback. Trump also forced Republican David Richter, the top Republican in the race-- who had just moved into the district-- to withdraw and go run somewhere else (where there already is a Republican challenging Democrat Andy Kim). She immediately derided Richter as a "seat shopper who apparently believes he's entitled to party support-- somewhere, anywhere." Richter is a self-funder who had already given his campaign against Van Drew $500,000. And now he was forced to endorse Van Drew, who he's been denouncing in no uncertain terms for months.

But I'm sure it surprises no one that Trump uses bribery as a political tool. He used to brag about it in 2016 during the campaign-- about buying political favors from slimy politicians. You watch Pam Bondi making a jackass out of herself at the impeachment hearings the other day? Paying back a cash debt. Does this Politico headline surprise you? Trump lures GOP senators on impeachment with cold cash. Alex Isenstadt wrote that "Trump is rewarding senators who have his back on impeachment-- and sending a message to those who don't to get on board. Trump is tapping his vast fundraising network for a handful of loyal senators facing tough reelection bids in 2020. Each of them has signed onto a Republican-backed resolution condemning the inquiry as 'unprecedented and undemocratic.' Conspicuously absent from the group is Maine Sen. Susan Collins, a politically vulnerable Republican who’s refused to support the resolution and avoided taking a stance on impeachment. With his new push, Trump is exerting leverage over a group he badly needs in his corner with an impeachment trial likely coming soon to the Senate-- but that also needs him."

Most eager to sell out to Trump were Cory Gardner (CO), Joni Ernst (IA) and Thom Tillis who signed onto the resolution and just received a fundraising letter from Trump. Another shameless whore, David Perdue (GA), also signed on and is getting a Trump-hosted fundraising event next week. Isenstadt reported that "Attendees are being asked to give up to $100,000." He's also doing one of those for Moscow Mitch.

Party officials said there are likely to be additional Trump-led digital fundraising efforts for senators and that those who weren't included in this wave could be in a later one.

The president has been a fundraising boon for Republican senators. Earlier this month, Texas Sen. John Cornyn sent out an appeal to donors that prominently featured an image of Trump flashing a thumbs-up. The plea asked givers to “Show President Trump you have his back!” and invited them to split their donations between the president and Cornyn’s reelection campaigns.

The Texas senator tweeted afterward that his campaign “had its biggest online fundraising day ever."

“The donors listen to the president, and he has the most capacity to energize small-dollar contributions by making the case that he needs a Senate majority to be successful,” said Scott Jennings, a former political aide in the George W. Bush White House.

A few hours ago, former Gov. Chris Christie told ABC News that Republicans who vote for witnesses should expect retribution. That's the stick part of Trump's carrot and stick strategy for dealing with his own party. "You could very well see the president encouraging or creating primaries against senators that are up this year if they went and voted the other way I could definitely see him at least attempting to do that."

Trump is running the most transactional swampy regime in American history. Fat cats know if they open their wallets for Trump, they get whatever they want. It's all pay-to-play. Scott Reed, the senior political strategist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said that "Trump has the ability to turn on the money spigot like no one else."

Another Politico reporter, Ben Schreckinger, wrote another shocking story about the Trump Swamp: Trump allies are handing out cash to black voters. Short version: the Trumpists have begun holding events in black communities where they lavish praise on the president while handing out tens of thousands of dollars in giveaways.

The first giveaway took place last month in Cleveland, where recipients whose winning tickets were drawn from a bin landed cash gifts in increments of several hundred dollars, stuffed into envelopes. A second giveaway scheduled for this month in Virginia has been postponed, and more are said to be in the works.

The tour comes as Trump’s campaign has been investing its own money to make inroads with black voters and erode Democrats’ overwhelming advantage with them. But the cash giveaways are organized under the auspices of an outside charity, the Urban Revitalization Coalition, permitting donors to remain anonymous and make tax-deductible contributions.

The organizers say the events are run by the book and intended to promote economic development in inner cities. But the group behind the cash giveaways is registered as a 501(c)3 charitable organization. One leading legal expert on nonprofit law said the arrangement raises questions about the group’s tax-exempt status, because it does not appear to be vetting the recipients of its money for legitimate charitable need.

"Charities are required to spend their money on charitable and educational activities,” said Marcus Owens, a former director of the Exempt Organizations Division at the Internal Revenue Service who is now in private practice at the law firm Loeb & Loeb. “It's not immediately clear to me how simply giving money away to people at an event is a charitable act.”

Asked about the legality of the giveaways in a brief phone interview, the Urban Revitalization Coalition’s CEO, Darrell Scott, said that most gifts were between $300 and $500, and that the group mandates that anyone who receives over $600 fills out a W-9 form in order to ensure compliance with tax law. He did not respond to follow-up questions about how the giveaways were structured and whether they met the legal standard for a charitable act.

Scott declined to name the donors funding the effort. "I'd rather not,” he said. “They prefer to remain anonymous."

Scott, a Cleveland-based pastor, has been one of Trump’s closest and most prominent black supporters. He struck up a relationship with the real estate mogul in the years before Trump’s presidential run, and-- along with Trump’s former lieutenant Michael Cohen-- co-founded the National Diversity Coalition for Trump to promote that run.

...The group’s “Christmas Extravaganza” event in Cleveland last month featured a $25,000 giveaway and an appearance by Ja’Ron Smith, a deputy assistant to the president. A Cleveland native who worked on Trump’s criminal justice reform, Smith is among the highest-ranking black officials in the White House.

At the event, which also featured an appearance by television personality Geraldo Rivera, Lanier compared the investigative scrutiny faced by Trump to the plight of wrongfully incarcerated black men. He also defended Trump’s record on race.

"President Donald Trump-- the one that they say is racist-- is the first president in the history of this country to incentivize people who have the money to put it into ... urban areas,” he said.

...The election year initiative by the Urban Revitalization Coalition to improve Trump’s image in black communities could bolster those efforts.

The coalition planned a Martin Luther King Jr. Day event at Virginia Union University, a historically black school in Richmond. Advertisements for the event said it would feature a $30,000 cash giveaway and would honor Trump as well as his son-in-law, senior White House adviser Jared Kushner.

But school administrators canceled the Jan. 20 event, saying it had been described to them as an “economic development discussion” when it was first booked. In a letter to Lanier, university President Hakim Lucas said: “The event advertised is vastly different from the event VUU agreed to co-host.”

Scott told Politico that the school had initially “begged” him to have the event there. He said that the coalition intends to reschedule it at another venue at a later date.

Scott also said the group was planning to unveil a slate of additional future events and that he would reveal additional details. He did not respond to follow-up queries about the group’s upcoming schedule.

Can Trump Bribe His Way Out Of Impeachment? He's Certainly Trying

Yesterday, the House Republicans showed us-- once again-- what they're made of: TREASON. Every single Republican stuck with Trump and spat in the face of the Constitution and in the face of the United States. Now, of course, everyone is wondering what will happen in the Senate once the House impeaches Trump. If you want to look at it transactionally-- and these are politicians we're talking about here-- among the Republican-held Senate seats up for grabs next year, several will be decided by independent voters (who have increasingly turned against Trump)-- not in zombie-Republican states like Tennessee and Arkansas, where the GOP can win without any independents, but these 8 states:

• Maine- Susan Collins
• Colorado- Cory Gardner
• Arizona- Martha McSally
• Iowa- Joni Ernst
• North Carolina- Thom Tillis
• Montana- Steve Daines
• Alaska- Dan Sullivan
• Georgia- David Perdue

Yesterday, before the House vote, Alex Isenstadt reported for Politico that Señor Trumpanzee "is rewarding senators who have his back on impeachment-- and sending a message to those who don't to get on board." Rewarding as in C.A.S.H. "Trump," he continued, "is tapping his vast fundraising network for a handful of loyal senators facing tough reelection bids in 2020. Each of them has signed onto a Republican-backed resolution condemning the inquiry as 'unprecedented and undemocratic.'... With his new push, Trump is exerting leverage over a group he badly needs in his corner with an impeachment trial likely coming soon to the Senate-- but that also needs him." And Susan Collins (R-ME) gets squat.

Republican senators on the ballot next year are lagging in fundraising, stoking uncertainty about the GOP’s hold on the chamber, and could use the fundraising might of the president. Trump’s political operation has raked in over $300 million this year.

On Wednesday, the Trump reelection campaign sent a fundraising appeal to its massive email list urging donors to provide a contribution that would be divided between the president and Colorado Sen. Cory Gardner, Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst, and North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis. Each of the senators are supporting the anti-impeachment resolution despite being endangered in 2020.

“If we don’t post strong fundraising numbers,” the message warned, “we won't be able to defend the President from this baseless Impeachment WITCH HUNT.”

Next week, Trump will lend a hand to Georgia Sen. David Perdue, a staunch ally who has also spoken out against impeachment. On Nov. 8, the president will host an Atlanta fundraising lunch that will jointly benefit his campaign, the Republican National Committee, and Perdue’s reelection effort. Attendees are being asked to give up to $100,000, according to an invitation obtained by Politico.

Trump is also set to appear next week at a reception for Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC closely aligned with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and party leadership.

The offensive comes as Trump presses Republicans to remain united behind him. During a cabinet meeting last week, the president implored Republicans to “get tougher and fight” while lamenting that Democrats “stick together. You never see them break off.”

...“The donors listen to the president, and he has the most capacity to energize small-dollar contributions by making the case that he needs a Senate majority to be successful,” said Scott Jennings, a former political aide in the George W. Bush White House.

Trump’s interest in assisting down-ballot candidates has heartened Republican strategists who worry that the 2020 election is turning out to be a re-run of the disastrous 2018 midterms, when GOP candidates were vastly out-raised. The hope is that Trump can harness his massive small-donor network to help Republican senators, who are trying to protect a narrow majority.

“The hard lessons from 2018 were that elections have consequences and it is the president’s party now,” said Scott Reed, the senior political strategist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

Trump, Reed added, “has the ability to turn on the money spigot like no one else.”

Michael Franken, a retired admiral currently running for the Iowa Senate seat occupied by Joni Ernst pointed out that "The unknown is when the influx of extravagant GOP funding does little more than annoy the voter. In Iowa, for instance, the middle third, who question Trump’s suitability for decision making and may very well be losing their farms due to disastrous trade policies, may already be lost. Recent polling numbers for Senator Joni Ernst fell to a 39% approval rating from a high of 57% in February. (She parrots Trump.) Getting bombarded by TV ads may lull some listeners to vote for Trump’s acolyte, but not if the farm is on the auction block."

Dr. Al Gross is an independent candidate for U.S. Senate, officially endorsed by the Alaska Democratic Party. Last night he told me that "Here in Alaska, if we want to survive, we think for ourselves. That's why Alaska has the greatest proportion of independent voters of any state in the country. 55.25% of voters are registered as independents. Yet Dan Sullivan keeps showing us that he's in lock step with Washington DC's partisan political game-playing. We appreciate our freedom here in Alaska and make sure to have each other's backs. Dan Sullivan is beholden to Mitch McConnell and the DC political class. He's not looking out for us. He's looking out for himself and for his own career. He appears to prefer to rise or fall with McConnell and the National Republican Party rather than stake out an Alaskan position on any issue at all."

Trump Is Going To Spend Millions To Try Flipping Minnesota, Where He Is 14 Points Underwater

The Chosen One by Nancy Ohanian

If he ever really was, Trump isn't popular in the Midwest ant longer. According to Morning Consult's state approval stats, the bulk of the region's electoral votes are likely to flow to his Democratic opponent. He's underwater in all of the big states but deep red Indiana and Missouri.

• Illinois (20)- minus 19
• Ohio (18)- minus 6
• Michigan (16)- minus 11
• Indiana (11)- plus 5
• Wisconsin (10)- minus 14
• Minnesota (10)- minus 14
• Missouri (10)- plus 6
• Iowa (6)- minus 11
• Kansas (6)- plus 5
• Nebraska (5)- minus 1

In 2016, these 10 states gave Trump 82 electoral votes while Hillary only won 30. The Morning Consult polling indicates that if the election were held today, Trump could expect 27 electoral votes , while 85 would go to his Democratic opponent. A reversal +3... actually plus 4, since Nebraska's second district would give the Democrat an electoral vote, one less for Trump. So the real score would be Democrat 86, Trumpanzee 26.

Minnesota is bolded for a reason, by the way. The state, which Trump lost narrowly, has been anti-Trump territory pretty much for his entire bumbling stay in the White House. Let's track it.

• January 2017- plus 3
• April 2017- minus 9
• July 2017- minus 11
• October 2017- minus 15
• December 2017- minus 20
• January 2018- minus 14
• April 2018- minus 18
• July 2018- minus 14
• October 2018- minus 15
• December 2018- minus 14
• January 2019- minus 19
• April 2019- minus 13
• July 2019- minus 14

Yesterday Alex Isenstadt took a deeper dive after the Trump campaign announced they would flip Minnesota from blue to red-- with the help of ex-Congressman Jason Lewis. Lewis is running for senator against Tina Smith, who defeated her 2018 GOP opponent by a smidge over 10 points. Meanwhile, Lewis lost his suburban congressional district south of Minneapolis and St Paul 177,958 (52.8%) to 159,344 (47.2%) to a weak Democratic opponent, Angie Craig. Lewis is a former Hate Talk Radio host, often referred too as "mini-Trump." Two of Trump's top political lieutenants, Bill Stepien and Justin Clark, will help guide Lewis' campaign. Isendstadt wrote that Trump is obsessed with Minnesota because he only lost it by a point and a half. The state hasn’t gone for a Republican presidential candidate since 1972. He also points out that Lewis "has embraced Trump’s smash-mouth style as he rails against political correctness. He’s hinted that he’ll run as a Trump foot soldier, recently telling a Minnesota news outlet that 'I don’t think it pays to run away from a Trump presidency.'" That worked out badly for him last year.

Trump’s narrow loss in Minnesota, Stepien noted, was the closest any Republican presidential hopeful came to winning Minnesota since 1984.

“Most importantly, the 2016 results revealed a previously concealed pathway to statewide victory in 2020,” he added.

Republicans concede their odds are long in Minnesota: They haven’t won a statewide race in there since 2006. They acknowledge Trump has done little to repair his standing with suburban voters who remain a key part of the electorate, and Lewis comes to the race with baggage.

As a radio talk show host from 2009 to 2014, he complained that women can no longer be called “sluts” and described people on governmental assistance as “parasites,” among other incendiary remarks.

Lewis has said it was his job as a radio host to be provocative. He lost reelection to his suburban Twin Cities seat in 2018 after a single term. The Democratic incumbent, Sen. Tina Smith, was appointed to the seat after Al Franken resigned. She subsequently won a special election in 2018.

Trump has made clear he thinks Minnesota is within reach. The president mentioned the state during a recent White House gathering with congressional leaders and top party strategists. He wrote on Twitter last month that he “almost won Minnesota” in 2016 and predicted 2020 would be different.

The national party has been pouring resources into the state. The Republican National Committee has nearly a dozen full-time staffers in Minnesota. By comparison, the party had just one full-time staffer in the state in 2016, and that aide was diverted to another battleground before Election Day.

...The Minnesota offensive is part of a broader Republican foray into blue states. Republicans enjoy a massive financial advantage over Democrats, and by playing in places like Minnesota, New Hampshire, and New Mexico they hope to force Democrats to spend resources on liberal-leaning states as opposed to more competitive battlegrounds.

During a presentation to major donors in Jackson Hole, Wyo., earlier this week, senior White House adviser Jared Kushner highlighted the Trump campaign’s organizational and financial advantages and spoke about its efforts to expand the map into states the president lost in 2016. He specifically mentioned the number of staffers the campaign has deployed to Minnesota, according to one attendee.

Republicans are also zeroing in on a Democratic-held House seat in the conservative western part of the state. Senior party officials have been trying to recruit former Lt. Gov. Michelle Fischbach to run against Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson. [So long as it doesn't cost them their large majority, Democrats would be much better off without Peterson, a GOP-backing Blue Dog, in the House.]

Lewis’ allies have been talking up his prospects. Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND), who has been informally advising the former congressman, said he recently told National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Todd Young that a major Trump investment in Minnesota could turn Lewis into a serious contender.

While the contest wouldn’t start out as a top-tier pickup opportunity for the GOP, Cramer said in an interview, it could well become one down the line.

“It could be a sleeper,” he said.

Democrats are bound to link Lewis to Trump, a strategy the party used with success in 2018. But those close to the former congressman say his willingness to embrace the president could be an advantage.

Mike Lindell, a major GOP donor and Lewis ally who hails from the state, noted that during the 2018 campaign then-GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen’s aired TV ads in which he distanced himself from the president. Paulsen went on to lose the race for the suburban Twin Cities seat.

“If you distance yourself,” said Lindell, founder of pillow company My Pillow, “you’re going to lose.”

But, if you don't distance yourself from Trump you're going to lose even bigger. Minnesota freshmen Republicans Jim Hagedorn and Pete Stauber are both in precarious situations and it's Trump presence at the top of the ticket that will be what could sink their chances.

Cheri Bustos Has Some Kindred Souls-- At The NRSC

Same kind of authoritarian, anti-democratic mindset and instincts. Bustos, chair of the DCCC, is trying to prevent primaries of Blue Dogs and New Dems in Congress, while she recruits New Dem and Blue Dog-types to run against progressives. Yesterday evening, Politico ran a report by Alex Isenstadt showing how the McTurtle and Todd Young, who are running the NRSC, are coming from the exact same place. Does this sound familiar? "Senate Republicans and their establishment allies are vowing to blackball any political consulting firm that works to defeat GOP incumbents, a dramatic step likely to further inflame intraparty tensions over 2020 primaries."

McTurtle and Young are all riled up because the far right is attempting to primary Thom Tillis (R-NC), who's more like the near-right. McTurtle was heard screeching that there will be a "zero tolerance policy." That kind of thing is more likely to work in a fascist-oriented party than among Democrats, where Bustos is rapidly destroying her own credibility and her career.

“It is the policy of the NRSC that we will defend any member of our caucus from any challenge-- be it in a primary or general election-- by any means necessary,” Kevin McLaughlin, the National Republican Senatorial Committee executive director, said in a statement. “It is a zero tolerance policy and we will not work with any vendors who work for campaigns or outside groups challenging incumbent Republican senators.”

The announcement is the most public brushback to those working for primary challengers since 2014, when the NRSC-- looking to beat back a wave of conservative insurgents-- cut off a consulting firm that had targeted Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and other incumbents up for reelection that year.

The Senate Leadership Fund, a well-funded super PAC closely aligned with McConnell, joined the committee in its decision.

“We have a long-standing policy of not using consultants who are assisting primary challenges against our Senate incumbents,” said Steven Law, the group's president.

The Club for Growth has not opposed an incumbent Republican senator since 2014, when it tried to unseat then-Mississippi Sen. Thad Cochran. But this week, the organization indicated it was trying to nudge North Carolina Rep. Mark Walker, a staunch Trump ally, into the primary. The Club for Growth also released a poll suggesting that Tillis would be vulnerable in a primary and general election.

The flare-up threatens to divide Republicans in a state at the center of the party’s 2020 strategy. Senate GOP campaign officials have warned aides to President Donald Trump that a disruptive and chaotic North Carolina Senate primary could hurt Trump in the battleground state.

North Carolina had already become an early focus of GOP concerns. The state Republican Party, whose chairman was recently indicted in a corruption case, has been wracked by turmoil. And there is considerable angst within the party about a field of lackluster gubernatorial candidates.

Senate Republicans are vigorously working to protect Tillis. In recent weeks, NRSC officials raised concerns with Trump campaign aides over the work that John McLaughlin, one of the president’s pollsters, was doing for Tillis primary challenger Garland Tucker. On Tuesday, McLaughlin’s firm withdrew from the North Carolina race.

The NRSC has indicated that it’s prepared to aggressively go after Walker, a third-term evangelical pastor. The committee, for example, has pointed out that the congressman has become entangled in the same federal corruption probe that led to the indictment of state party chairman Robin Hayes.

Major donors and outside groups are also coming to the senator’s defense. A spokesman for GOP megadonors Sheldon and Miriam Adelson said the couple “stands by Thom Tillis.”

Ending Spending Action Fund, a super PAC that in the past has received funding from the billionaire Ricketts and Adelson families, said it “will proudly support his reelection and vigorously oppose candidates or groups that seek to challenge the senator.”

Club for Growth officials say Tillis’ past differences with the White House have made him vulnerable in a state where Trump is popular among Republicans. Last year, the senator was criticized by fellow Republicans for co-sponsoring legislation to protect special counsel Robert Mueller. Earlier this year, Tillis wrote a Washington Post op-ed in which he announced his opposition to Trump’s national emergency declaration to build a border wall, though he ultimately voted in favor of it.

The Club for Growth tried to defeat the president in the 2016 GOP primary but has since refashioned itself into a pro-Trump outfit. On Friday, the group said it is still assessing whether to oppose Tillis.

“The Club for Growth has not made a determination if we will support a primary challenge to Sen. Tillis’ seat in North Carolina,” said Joe Kildea, a spokesman for the organization. “If we do endorse Walker, it will only be if we believe he is a stronger candidate in the general election.”

Republicans are not alone in trying to cut off oxygen to primary challengers. At a time when progressive insurgents are looking to unseat establishment incumbents, the House Democratic campaign arm has said it will no longer do business with vendors who are working to defeat sitting lawmakers.

The Club for Growth’s threat to Tillis puts some of the Republican Party's incumbents, who typically treat their fellow colleagues with deference, in an awkward position. Arizona Sen. Martha McSally has previously used two consulting firms, Axiom Strategies and WPA Intelligence, who have done work for the Club for Growth and Walker.

WPA Intelligence oversaw the Club for Growth’s new North Carolina survey, though a person familiar with the arrangement said it was done through a firewalled division of the polling firm. Jeff Roe, founder of Axiom Strategies and a top McSally adviser, said his firm would not be involved in any effort to defeat Tillis.

McSally is one of the most endangered senators up for reelection in 2020. A spokeswoman for the senator suggested that she took the same no-tolerance approach as the party committee.

"Sen. McSally strongly supports the reelection of Thom Tillis,” said McSally spokeswoman Katie Waldman, “and has made it clear that she will not use any vendors who are involved in a primary against the senator or any other Republican senator in the 2020 cycle.”

After All The Lies And Chaos, Is The Rust Belt Over Trump?

Does someone in the White House really think sending Trump to do more of his hate rallies in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio will reverse his Rust Belt slide? Won't his unique, divisive and super-polarizing presence further accelerate the slide? Somehow what Peter Baker at the NY Times dubbed the Four Letter Presidency isn't wearing well outside of the deepest of deep red areas. Midwest swing districts that helped him beat Hillary in 2016 seem repulsed by his filthy mouth. Unlike his predecessors, Trump seems to revel in being "the profanity presidency, full of four-letter denunciations of his enemies and earthy dismissals of allegations lodged against him. At rallies and in interviews, on Twitter and in formal speeches, he relishes the bad-boy language of a shock jock, just one more way of gleefully provoking the political establishment bothered by his norm-shattering ways. In a single speech on Friday alone, he managed to throw out a 'hell,' an 'ass' and a couple of 'bullshits' for good measure. In the course of just one rally in Panama City Beach, Fla., earlier this month, he tossed out 10 'hells,' three 'damns' and a 'crap.' The audiences did not seem to mind. They cheered and whooped and applauded." He's coarsened the national dialogue. It's what people meant about him being unfit to serve as a role model for their children.

While traditionalists may deem it unpresidential and a poor example for children, Martha Joynt Kumar, a longtime scholar of presidential communication, said gritty language was part of the show put on by Mr. Trump, the onetime reality television entertainer, for his fans.

“He knows they like him to use words that lie over the edge of the traditional boundary of presidential decorum,” she said. “His controversial word choices are an aspect of his role as the disrupter he promised his constituents he would be.”

But critics say the vulgarity comes at a cost. “No one has debased the civil discourse in this country more than President Trump, and the president really does set the tone in the country,” said Representative Adam B. Schiff, Democrat of California. “We see it reflected in our offices by the hateful, belligerent, obscene and violent calls that we get now that we didn’t used to get.”

Mr. Schiff has experienced it personally when Mr. Trump turned his name into a profanity last fall by nicknaming him “little Adam Schitt.” Mr. Schiff said, “The last time that happened, the person who did that had their mouth washed out with soap by his mother.”

An unscientific survey seems to suggest that if anything, Mr. Trump is growing more comfortable with crudeness. He used the word “bullshit” in public just once in his first two years in office, according to the Factba.se database that tracks his speeches, but on four occasions in the last three months.

He has either coarsened the public discourse or reflected it, or perhaps both, depending on your view of him, but he is not alone. Society in recent years has embraced what used to be considered profanity. Even the New York Times, the so-called Gray Lady with all the news that’s fit to print, found it fit to print the B.S. word just 14 times in the many years before Mr. Trump’s inauguration, according to a Nexis search, but has used it 26 times since-- not all in stories covering the president.

...Never has any president pushed the boundaries of language as far as Mr. Trump. He had a foul mouth long before politics, of course, but he seemed to try, however fitfully, to clean it up for a while when he set his sights on the White House. Still, he could not resist at times. At one rally during his 2016 campaign, he quoted a supporter calling a Republican rival, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, a “pussy.”

Once taking office, he tried, at least, to keep it private, but he was uninhibited when the cameras were not on. After the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, was appointed, he told aides, “I’m fucked.” Speaking with lawmakers, he called African nations “shithole countries.”

Yet Mr. Trump feigned shock in January when the newly elected Representative Rashida Tlaib of Michigan said she and her fellow House Democrats were “going to impeach the motherfucker.” The president told reporters that “she dishonored herself” by “using language like that in front of her son and whoever else was there.”

...Any restraint Mr. Trump may have sought to exhibit early in his term seems to have eroded in recent months. In a January interview with The Times, he boasted that he had “beat the shit out of” Republican rivals in 2016. A month later, he told the Conservative Political Action Conference that his enemies were trying to take him out “with bullshit,” a word he then took up with vigor.

A few weeks later, he told a rally in Grand Rapids, Mich., that Democrats were peddling it. In April, he used it to describe some statements in the special counsel report.

By the time the president took the stage before the National Association of Realtors in Washington on Friday, he was in a feisty mood.

He recalled that a consultant tried to make work for himself by identifying environmental concerns on a property Mr. Trump wanted to develop. “I fired his ass so fast,” the president recalled.

Active Shooter by Nancy Ohanian

He told the Realtors that he used to refuse to pay brokers their traditional 6 percent commission and instead gave them just 1 percent. “I was famous for that,” he said. When they booed, he quickly retreated. “Don’t worry. Nobody accepted it. But I tried like hell.”

Then he went after one of his favorite targets-- journalists-- claiming that recent reports of infighting within his national security team were made up. “There is no source,” he said. “The person doesn’t exist. The person’s not alive. It’s bullshit, O.K.? It’s bullshit.”

And with that, the television networks had to hit their bleeper again.

Back to shoring up his collapsing approval numbers in the Rust Belt, Trump was in tiny Montoursville Pennsylvania yesterday (Lycoming County)-- fresh off the campaign trail with his shit-show in Wisconsin and Michigan this month. I suppose this makes his crude, course racist base happy. But that's not going to win him a reelection. The most recent Pennsylvania polling from Quinnipiac (May 15) shows any of the Democrats likely to win the nomination, beating Trump:

• Biden beats Trump- 53-42%
• Bernie beats Trump- 50-43%
• Elizabeth Warren beats Trump 47-44%
• McKensey Pete beats Trump 45-44%
• Kamala Harris ties Trump 45-45%

An Emerson poll of Iowa voters in late March showed Biden and Bernie each beating Trump. And the Emerson poll of Wisconsin voters in late March show the Dems all beating him as well:

• Biden beats Trump- 54-46%
• Bernie beats Trump- 52-48%
• Elizabeth Warren beats Trump 52-48%
• Beto beats Trump 51-49%
• Kamala Harris ties Trump 50-50%
• Amy Klobuchar ties Trump 50-50%

And results for Michigan were similar. Emerson (March 11):

• Biden beats Trump- 54-46%
• Amy Klobuchar beats Trump 53-47%
• Bernie beats Trump- 52-47%
• Elizabeth Warren beats Trump 51-49%
• Kamala Harris beats Trump 51-49%

Trump's rallies in these states are more likely to hurt his polling numbers than help them. Last night in a airplane hanger in the middle of nowhere, he did nothing but lie and brag, berate Biden, accuse unnamed people of treason and criticize Fox for not doing what he wants them to. But rallies aren't the only way the White House is trying to turn the beat around. Alex Isenstadt reported that "Behind the scenes, they've rushed to the aid of languishing state Republican Party machines and have raised concerns that a potential GOP Senate candidate in Michigan could hurt the president’s prospects there. They are also scrutinizing the map for opportunities to fire up his base in the trio of states... The Trump campaign recently completed a 17-state polling project that concluded the president trails Joe Biden in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, according to two people briefed on the results... People close to the president insist they’re not panicked. They think Biden’s numbers will drop once the honeymoon stage of his campaign wears off."

Yet there’s nagging concern after a midterm election in which Republicans across the Midwest got clobbered-- and as Trump’s trade war is threatening farmers and factory workers who helped put him in office.

The president won each state by less than 1 percentage point in 2016.

...Former Trump White House chief of staff and ex-state GOP chairman Reince Priebus was among those who pushed for a post-midterm study to assess what went wrong for the GOP. It resulted in a scalding, 15-page autopsy concluding that the Wisconsin Republican Party had “drifted from its roots as a grassroots organization and became a top-down bureaucracy, disconnected from local activists, recklessly reliant on outside consultants and took for granted money that was raised to keep the party functioning properly.”

To fix the financial woes, the report said, “we need to understand the missteps fully and put a flag in the ground to say ‘this ends now.’”

Released last week, the autopsy followed a brutal midterm election that saw Republicans lose the governorship, traditionally a key organizational and financial asset in presidential elections. The report detailed a series of steps the state party needs to take ahead of 2020.

Priebus, who still speaks with the president, is expected to brief major contributors on the report next month in Milwaukee. Efforts are already underway to pay off the party’s post-midterm debt: Republican mega-donor Diane Hendricks, a Trump 2016 fundraising committee vice chair, recently gave the state party $500,000, two people familiar with the donation confirmed.

“At its core, we did the autopsy because 2018 didn’t go the way we wanted it to go,” said Wisconsin GOP Chairman Andrew Hitt, an attorney for Trump’s 2016 campaign. “It really became clear that some things just fundamentally didn’t go right and so we wanted take a deep dive and look at them and correct them.”

Can Andy Beshear Beat Bevin This Coming November? Trump Is Flipping Out Over This Race

Kentucky is a weird and intriguing state when it comes to politics. Just watch the great explanation of what's going on there in the Samantha Bee video above before you read another word. It's one of the reddest states in the Union (PVI is R+15-- worse than Alabama, Mississippi, Texas or Kansas) and Trump beat Hillary there 1,202,971 (62.5%) to 628,854 (32.68). She won just two of Kentucky's 120 counties. Hillary even managed to lose Elliott County, which had never-- in its 150 year history-- voted for a Republican before, not Reagan, not Eisenhower, not Harding... just Trump. Anyway, that's not what's intriguing. What is, is how much Kentucky voters hate their Republican politicians and vote for them anyway. Kentucky voters, for example, hate Mitch McConnell more than the voters in any state hate their senator. Every year since dinosaurs roamed the planet McConnell has been rated the most hated senator in America. His approval from Kentucky voters was 36% this year, an actual improvement over the 30% it was a couple of years earlier. Unlike in other states, though, Kentuckians keep reelecting the politicians they detest.

Alex Isenstadt, writing for Politico yesterday, reported that Trump has his own people racing to save Matt Bevin, a Trump loyalist in a red state who's deeply unpopular and on the ballot in November. "Bevin," he wrote, "is a presidential phone-buddy and White House regular who’s become one of President Donald Trump’s loudest surrogates. He’s also one of the most unpopular governors in the country, facing a treacherous reelection in November. And the White House, fearing that an embarrassing loss in a deep-red state would stoke doubts about the president’s own ability to win another term, is preparing to go all-in to save him." Trump keeps sending Pence down to Kentucky to raise money and to fire up gay-haters among the evangelical base.

The Trump team has watched with growing concern as Bevin’s approval ratings have plummeted to the low 30s. With the presidential campaign kicking into gear, the Kentucky governor’s race is likely to be the most closely-watched contest in the run-up to 2020, and Trump aides acknowledge alarm bells will go off if one of the president’s closest allies loses in a state that Trump won by nearly 30 percentage points.

“You want to be winning and not losing in red states ahead of your reelection bid,” said Scott Jennings, a Louisville-based Republican strategist who served as a top political aide in the George W. Bush White House. “I think having the president come and remind everyone what’s at stake is important.”

Bevin has visited the White House so frequently that his presence in the West Wing has become a running joke among some Trump aides. Since Jan. 2018, the Kentucky governor has visited the White House 10 times, according to a count provided by an administration official. Over the past year, the White House has dispatched at least nine cabinet heads and top officials to Kentucky to promote the Trump agenda with the governor. First daughter Ivanka Trump has gone twice.

...The governor’s plight has caused unease across the party. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who defeated Bevin in a bitter 2014 primary, has put aside the past rivalry and instructed his political team to be helpful to the governor in any way he wants. Aides to both men have been in touch.

McConnell, who wields a formidable political apparatus in the state, has much at stake in the governor’s race. Like Trump, the GOP leader is on the ballot in 2020 and a Bevin loss could further energize Democrats who are eager to take McConnell down.

The fact that Democrats are even competitive in the Kentucky governor’s race represents a remarkable turn of fortunes. Republicans control both U.S. Senate seats, five of the state’s six congressional seats, the governorship, and both chambers of the state legislature. Barack Obama’s aggressive efforts to address climate change, many believe, deeply undercut the Democratic Party’s prospects in the coal-dependent state.

But Bevin in nonetheless in jeopardy. After narrowly winning the 2015 gubernatorial primary, he picked a series of high-profile fights, most notably with public school teachers. Last week, Bevin, who’s waged an intense campaign to reform the state’s pension system, came under fire for blaming striking teachers for the shooting of a 7-year-old girl who had stayed home because school had been shut down.

“The governor has a tough reelection, largely because he’s not a part of the political establishment and has ruffled feathers and gotten into fights in Frankfort,” said Nick Everhart, a Republican strategist with extensive experience in the state.

The governor’s political standing is so precarious that he's being forced to spend campaign funds more than six months before the election. Bevin on Thursday purchased about $500,000 worth of May commercial airtime.

State Attorney General Andy Beshear, the son of popular former Gov. Steve Beshear, is widely considered the front-runner in a May 21 Democratic primary that also includes state House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins and former state Auditor Adam Edelen.

People close to Bevin say his general election campaign will focus heavily on the president. The hope, they say, is that the president will help win over many of the blue-collar voters who backed Trump in 2016 but who’ve soured on the governor over his push for pension reform.

And they’re eager for Trump to savage Bevin’s eventual Democratic opponent.

“I hope the president uses his political capital in Kentucky because he’s got it here,” said Steve Robertson, a former Kentucky GOP chairman. “I think he could make a huge difference.”

In February, PPP surveyed Kentucky voters in regard to the 2020 Senate race and found that a generic Democrat is within the margin of error-- 45-42% in a race to release McTurtle. Their key findings:

• There are signs Mitch McConnell is losing Trump voters. Among people who voted for Trump in 2016, 36% disapprove of McConnell’s job performance and 40% say they think it’s time for someone new to hold his Senate seat.

 • Many who voted fro McConnell in 2014 have soured on him. Among people who voted for McConnell in 2014, 30% disapprove of his job performance and 32% say they think it’s time for someone new to hold his Senate seat.

 • McConnell’s standing in Kentucky among Republicans pales in comparison to Trump’s. Only 47% of Republicans approve of the job McConnell is doing, compared to 87% of Republicans who approve of Trump’s job performance. 39% of Republicans disapprove of the job McConnell is doing while only 12% disapprove of Trump’s job performance. Only 47% of Republicans think McConnell deserves to be reelected, and 44% of Republicans think it's time to elect someone new.


Does Adelson Own The GOP? Or Is He Just Leasing It?

On Friday Alex Isenstadt reported for Politico that "a deluge of Democratic spending in the final days of the battle for the House has triggered recriminations among Republicans and forced the party to lean on its biggest patron to salvage their majority. Since the end of July, Republican candidates in the 70 most contested races have reserved $60 million in TV ads, compared to $109 million for Democratic hopefuls... The disparity is almost certain to grow, as former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg makes good on plans to spend nearly $80 million to help Democrats flip the House."

“From Democrat candidates to outside groups, we’ve never seen anything like this before,” said Brian Walsh, president of the pro-Trump America First Action super PAC. “They are dumping in cash by the truckload.”

Desperate for help, Republicans are turning to their go-to benefactor: Las Vegas casino mogul Sheldon Adelson. The 85-year-old ally of President Donald Trump has made another contribution in the range of $20 million to the House GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC, according to two Republican officials familiar with the donation. Party leaders are hopeful he'll fork over even more.

Senior Republicans are in touch with other influential givers. On Tuesday, White House senior adviser Jared Kushner, who’s been in regular contact with Adelson and courted many of the party’s most elite donors in recent weeks, appeared at a board meeting of the influential Republican Jewish Coalition. That evening, at the Ritz-Carlton in Washington, he addressed a gathering hosted by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

...Charlie Black, a longtime Republican Party hand who attended the breakfast, said the problem isn’t hard to diagnose: Democrats want to send a message to the president, so they’re pumping the war chests of House candidates with online donations.

“We’re raising more money than we usually do on our side, and they’re raising more than they ever do and it’s because of Trump," Black said. "He’s the great motivator.”

The National Republican Congressional Committee is expected to secure a loan to help the party compete in the final weeks. Party officials declined to divulge the size of the credit line though in previous election years the committee has received loans of between $10 million and $20 million.

...[A] blame game is underway. Many Republican lawmakers and strategists are frustrated with the NRCC over its failure to raise more money, they said in interviews. The committee has reserved $46 million on the TV airwaves, compared to $64 million by their Democratic counterpart. A committee spokesman said the NRCC has eclipsed its fundraising record by $20 million this election cycle.

But in the end, just as the Democrats are counting on Bloomberg; the GOP is counting on Adelson. It would be really useful if both sides just told both billionaires to stop, since their contributions 1-neutralize each other, 2- result in worthless TV ads do nothing to change the ballgame, 3- make a bunch of consultants and middlemen extremely wealthy but have no other impact on the election, and, at least in Adelson's case, results in immense public corruption on a grand scale. Pro-Publica exposed a piece of that corruption last week.

Justin Elliott reported that last February "Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s plane landed at Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland for his first visit with President Donald Trump. A few hours earlier, the casino magnate Sheldon Adelson’s Boeing 737, which is so large it can seat 149 people, touched down at Reagan National Airport after a flight from Las Vegas. Adelson dined that night at the White House with Trump, Jared Kushner and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. Adelson and his wife, Miriam, were among Trump’s biggest benefactors, writing checks for $20 million in the campaign and pitching in an additional $5 million for the inaugural festivities. Adelson was in town to see the Japanese prime minister about a much greater sum of money. Japan, after years of acrimonious public debate, has legalized casinos. For more than a decade, Adelson and his company, Las Vegas Sands, have sought to build a multibillion-dollar casino resort there. He has called expanding to the country, one of the world’s last major untapped markets, the 'holy grail.' Nearly every major casino company in the world is competing to secure one of a limited number of licenses to enter a market worth up to $25 billion per year. 'This opportunity won’t come along again, potentially ever,' said Kahlil Philander, an academic who studies the industry."

The morning after his White House dinner, Adelson attended a breakfast in Washington with Abe and a small group of American CEOs, including two others from the casino industry. Adelson and the other executives raised the casino issue with Abe, according to an attendee.

Adelson had a potent ally in his quest: the new president of the United States. Following the business breakfast, Abe had a meeting with Trump before boarding Air Force One for a weekend at Mar-a-Lago. The two heads of state dined with Patriots owner Bob Kraft and golfed at Trump National Jupiter Golf Club with the South African golfer Ernie Els. During a meeting at Mar-a-Lago that weekend, Trump raised Adelson’s casino bid to Abe, according to two people briefed on the meeting. The Japanese side was surprised.

“It was totally brought up out of the blue,” according to one of the people briefed on the exchange. “They were a little incredulous that he would be so brazen.” After Trump told Abe he should strongly consider Las Vegas Sands for a license, “Abe didn’t really respond, and said thank you for the information,” this person said.

Trump also mentioned at least one other casino operator. Accounts differ on whether it was MGM or Wynn Resorts, then run by Trump donor and then-Republican National Committee finance chairman Steve Wynn. The Japanese newspaper Nikkei reported the president also mentioned MGM and Abe instructed an aide who was present to jot down the names of both companies. Questioned about the meeting, Abe said in remarks before the Japanese legislature in July that Trump had not passed on requests from casino companies but did not deny that the topic had come up.

The president raising a top donor’s personal business interests directly with a foreign head of state would violate longstanding norms. “That should be nowhere near the agenda of senior officials,” said Brian Harding, a Japan expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “U.S.-Japan relations is about the security of the Asia-Pacific, China and economic issues.”

Adelson has told his shareholders to expect good news. On a recent earnings call, Adelson cited unnamed insiders as saying Sands’ efforts to win a place in the Japanese market will pay off. “The estimates by people who know, say they know, whom we believe they know, say that we’re in the No. 1 pole position,” he said.

After decades as a major Republican donor, Adelson is known as an ideological figure, motivated by his desire to influence U.S. policy to help Israel. “I’m a one-issue person. That issue is Israel,” he said last year. On that issue-- Israel-- Trump has delivered. The administration has slashed funding for aid to Palestinian refugees and scrapped the Iran nuclear deal. Attending the recent opening of the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem, Adelson seemed to almost weep with joy, according to an attendee.

] But his reputation as an Israel advocate has obscured a through-line in his career: He has used his political access to push his financial self-interest. Not only has Trump touted Sands’ interests in Japan, but his administration also installed an executive from the casino industry in a top position in the U.S. embassy in Tokyo. Adelson’s influence reverberates through this administration. Cabinet-level officials jump when he calls. One who displeased him was replaced. He has helped a friend’s company get a research deal with the Environmental Protection Agency. And Adelson has already received a windfall from Trump’s new tax law, which particularly favored companies like Las Vegas Sands. The company estimated the benefit of the law at $1.2 billion.

...Adelson has spent the Trump era hustling to expand his gambling empire. With Trump occupying the White House, Adelson has found the greatest political ally he’s ever had.

“I would put Adelson at the very top of the list of both access and influence in the Trump administration,” said Craig Holman of the watchdog group Public Citizen. “I’ve never seen anything like it before, and I’ve been studying money in politics for 40 years.”

...The Adelsons came through with $20 million in donations to the pro-Trump super PAC, part of at least $83 million in donations to Republicans. By the time of the October 2016 release of the Access Hollywood tape featuring Trump bragging about sexual assault, Adelson was among his staunchest supporters. “Sheldon Adelson had Donald Trump’s back,” said Steve Bannon in a speech last year, speaking of the time after the scandal broke. “He was there.”

In December 2016, Adelson donated $5 million to the Trump inaugural festivities. The Adelsons had better seats at Trump’s inauguration than many Cabinet secretaries. The whole family, including their two college-age sons, came to Washington for the celebration. One of his sons posted a picture on Instagram of the event with the hashtag #HuckFillary.

The investment paid off in access and in financial returns. Adelson has met with Trump or visited the White House at least six times since Trump’s election victory. The two speak regularly. Adelson has also had access to others in the White House. He met privately with Vice President Mike Pence before Pence gave a speech at Adelson’s Venetian resort in Las Vegas last year. “He just calls the president all the time. Donald Trump takes Sheldon Adelson’s calls,” said Alan Dershowitz, who has done legal work for Adelson and advised Trump.

Adelson’s tens of millions in donations to Trump have already been paid back many times over by the new tax law. While all corporations benefited from the lower tax rate in the new law, many incurred an extra bill in the transition because profits overseas were hit with a one-time tax. But not Sands. Adelson’s company hired lobbyists to press Trump’s Treasury Department and Congress on provisions that would help companies like Sands that paid high taxes abroad, according to public filings and tax experts. The lobbying effort appears to have worked. After Trump signed the tax overhaul into law in December, Las Vegas Sands recorded a benefit from the new law the company estimated at $1.2 billion.

The Adelson family owns 55 percent of Las Vegas Sands, which is publicly traded, according to filings. The Treasury Department didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Now as Trump and the Republican Party face a reckoning in the midterm elections in November, they have once again turned to Adelson. He has given at least $55 million so far.