Friday, November 13, 2020

Are Big 2022 Losses For House Dems Already Baked Into The Cake?



We've been predicting for all this year that the Republicans would win seats in 2022. But... that was based on several assumptions, which turned out to me overly optimistic about the course of the 2020 cycle and the ability of Democrats to prosper even with a completely inept and incapable DCCC with the worst chairperson in living memory. The assumptions were:
that an anti-Trump tsunami would give the Democrats many new seats in traditionally Republican districts;
that this year the Democrats would hold the reddest seats they had won in 2018;
that going forward, the Democrats would have control of both Houses of Congress and the White House;
that going forward the Democrats would accomplish nothing-- or at least nothing big-- that would help working families.
The first 3 assumptions were all wrong. If there was an anti-red wave, it was weak and didn't impact down-ballot races... at least not in favor of Democrats. In the House, the Democrats picked up 3 seats and lost around a dozen (votes are still being counted in several). The Democrats failed to win the Senate and it isn't likely the two January 5th runoffs in Georgia are going to go their way. If they did, that would get them to a 50-50 tie, which could be broken by Vice President Kamala. BUT... getting to that 50-50 vote is dependent on a shitload of garbage senators cooperating... like Kyrsten Sinema (AZ), Joe Manchin (WV), Tom Carper (DE), Jacky Rosen (NV), Mark Warner (VA), all of whom vote against progressive proposals, and soon to be joined by Mark Kelly (AZ) and Frackenlooper (CO) who will certainly be as bad, if not worse.

Back to the House, minority leader McCarthy came out yesterday and said that he guarantees that Republicans will win the majority in the 2022 midterms: "We have never been stronger in the sense of what the future holds for us-- we have never been in a stronger position. We won this by adding more people to the party. And we won this in an atmosphere where we were the one group that everyone guaranteed we would lose. And we’re the ones who won." Yeah... and the seats they won:
Collin Peterson (MN-07)- R+12
Joe Cunningham (SC-01)- R+10
Kendra Horn (OK-05)- R+10
Xochitl Torres Small (NM-02)- R+6
Harley Rouda (CA-48)- R+4
Max Rose (NY-11)- R+3
Anthony Brindisi (NY-22)- R+6
Ben McAdams (UT-04)- R+13
That's what you call some low-hanging fruit. And then there were the two overwhelmingly Hispanic districts in Miami-Dade, where only the Democratic Party would be stupid enough to not run Hispanic candidates. They were begging for losses and they got them, from prominent Republican Latinos.

Washington Post reporter Paulina Firozi, wrote that the 2020 suburban thing didn't work out for the DCCC the way they predicted it would. "Democrats," she reported, "have spent years wooing suburban voters, seeking to build a durable House majority on a foundation of affluent, well-educated voters repelled by President Trump and a hard-right GOP. But last week, that foundation developed serious cracks. Republicans not only reversed Democratic midterm gains in rural districts that had voted strongly for Trump in 2016, but clawed back at least one seat in Southern California while leading in other suburban districts that are yet to be called. Even more alarming for Democrats, predictions of broad gains in the suburbs of Texas, Indiana, Missouri and other states simply failed to materialize-- casting doubt on the party’s long-term House strategy of offsetting the party’s dwindling appeal among less-educated White voters with greater support among the more educated."

That's what I always mean when I talk about these losers-- the Kendra Horns, Harley Roudas, Anthony Brindisis, etc, ruining the Democratic brand. In most places a Democratic coalition of unionists, women, people of color, young people... turned out for Biden-- most to get rid of Trump, rather than to elect Biden per se. Democratic messaging isn't offering them anything much-- Pelosi's PayGo?-- beyond Trump must go. Whether or not McCarthy will be able to deliver on his "guarantee" for 2022 will depend on how seriously the Democrats take the identity crisis they're living through now. If they are determined to remain a Republican-lite party... well, we all know how that always turns out.

The Democrats should try to pass a progressive agenda that would clearly help working families. If that gets blocked by the Senate again, they-- including Biden-- can and should blame the gridlock on obstructionist Republicans who don't want people-- voters-- to get a fair shake. If the Democrats do that, rather than take the Republican-lite road-- they can defy historical projections and win seats in 2022. When FDR won a landslide in 1932, House Democrats won a net of 97 Republican seats. They did stuff for people for the next two years and were rewarded in the midterms, watching 14 more Republican seats flip blue. In 1944, FDR was reelected to her 4th term and he brought 20 new Democratic House members in on his coattails. The 1946 midterms was another reward for Democrats who did stuff for people: 55 more seats! The midterms after Bill Clinton's reelection saw the Democrats win 5 seats, which led to Newt Gingrich's resignation.

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At 5:26 AM, Anonymous ap215 said...

Yep in two years we'll go from U.S. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi to U.S. House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy it sucks to be you political centrists.

At 5:36 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

When will you realize just what the democrap 'brand' truly is??

Bustos' DCCC promoted their true brand, and it was generally recognized as shit. Nazi lite in nazi districts won't beat pure nazi. If you want to compete in nazi districts, you need to contrast their evil with your good. a little less evil will never go anywhere.

It has been easier to run as 'Not trump' or 'not nazis' with that orange mussolini in the white house spewing his evil and nonsense. But in 2022 the democraps won't have that. They'll have to run on something tangible.

In 2010 they had to run on 'we are trying but failing', which was a big lie. But even if were the truth, nobody will vote for the inept, incapable, lazy or stupid. FDR understood that for the Democratic majorities to remain (and expand!), they needed to, you know, DO STUFF (that mattered to the people).

If all you DO is help corporations and billionaires, and whinge about the nazis stopping you from doing anything for the masses and commons (or worse, never even try to do those things), you will get slaughtered. You will only hold seats where the greenhouse has a vast majority.

If you couldn't win more seats running against trump on twitter, you're going to lose 100 seats after 2 years of biden, pelo$i and $cummer doing what they always do... and NOT doing everything they always refuse to do.


At 7:50 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Are Big 2022 Losses For House Dems Already Baked Into The Cake?"

Hell YES!

Spitting on progressives before the ink is dry on the tally reports is a great way to lose support. Stuffing the new administration full of Republicans is yet another. With Trump still plotting to steal an electoral victory, this is a terrible way to defend against that.

The report about how a lot of medical plan planks have already been burned is yet another sign that the sheepdogs did their jobs well.

The vote is over and they don't need you anymore. Go away and STFU. Expect nothing from Biden and you won't be disappointed. Just do as you are told and you will be allowed to be fooled again in two years.

And somehow this is better then Trump's fascism?

At 9:33 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Lulz. The House can pass whatever pie-in-the-sky stuff they want. 2022 will be a red wave. The racists are ascendant and will keep the Senate red. A chicken in every pot doesn't interest most of the country, who want a chicken for themselves but not one for AAs or anyone else who is different from them. What the House does doesn't matter until 2024. Which either will again be a racist trifecta or a gridlocked split between the racists and the neolibs.

Progressive politics won't win enough racists to ever get anything passed, whether they take over the Democratic Party or somehow magically create a viable 3rd party out of whole clothe. We will totter along between our two parties until they allow the wealthy to bleed us all dry and then racists will take over what ever remains of the wasteland.

At 10:07 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Trump's presence on the ballot was clearly a major draw for many GOP voters this cycle. Without him, I suspect it will be like Obama in 2010 and 2014, where there's a big drop in turnout on the GOP side.

Having said that, the Dems are doubling down on the same failed formula and leadership. Yes, Cheri Bustos is gone, but Pelosi is likely to remain party leader in the House and is about 12 years removed from being any kind of a political asset. The DCCC will likely still be run by hacks. Same with the DSCC and the DNC. Thanks to the downballot failures in 2020 and Trump suppression of the census, the GOP may still effectively gain seats via redistricting. The Courts are more favorable to the GOP than ever. And if the Dems are unable to win those two Georgia senate seats, McConnell and the GOP will almost certainly block COVID relief without major concessions. e.g. I could see the Dems forced to own Social Security or Medicare cuts.

I would feel a lot more optimistic if there was at least some recognition at the leadership level of the party about the utter failure of party strategy since 2008. However, there is zero indication of this happening. To my eyes right now it looks like we effectively have a two party state on social issues, and a one party state on everything else. In terms of practical effects, it looks like the entire function of the Democratic Party is to manage and marginalize the left for this country's ruling class, not to actually win and exercise power for the benefit of the majority.

At 12:17 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

to reiterate what the past 2 have said, if you think (correctly) that the house will be a bloodbath in 2 years, just wait until the senate numbers are in.

The democraps are likely to lose 5. By 2024 the senate may well be 60+ nazis. And the house will probably be +40 for the nazis.

And some nazi will make biden the 6th one-termer by about 90 electors.

because democraps won't change and voters won't euthanize them.

fuck we're stupid!!


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