Wednesday, September 30, 2020

Of Course, An Anti-Trump Landslide Is Baked Into The Cake



Saving America by Nancy Ohanian

At this point, national polling for the presidential race isn't nearly as important as swing state polling. In 2016, Hillary won 65,853,514 (48.2%) votes nationally to Trump's 62,984,828 (46.1%). But Hillary's 2,968,626 vote victory didn't mean squat in the electoral college, where Trump won 304 votes to her 227. Polling shows that the vast majority of Americans have already made up their minds on the key issue of this election-- do they want Trump in the White House for 4 more years or not. The debates aren't going to change many minds, although they could be impactful in a few states that are close.

These were the polling averages (Real Clear Politics) in the swing states on Tuesday morning:
Wisconsin- Biden +5.5%
Florida- Biden +1.1%
Pennsylvania- Biden +5.7%
North Carolina- Biden +0.8%
Michigan- Biden +5.2%
Arizona- Biden +3.4%
Minnesota- Biden +9.4%
Ohio- Biden +3.3%
Iowa- tie
Nevada- Biden +5.3%
New Hampshire- Biden +5.5%
Maine- Biden +15.3%
Virginia- Biden +11.0%
Georgia- Trump +1.3%
Texas- Trump +3.6%
Colorado- Biden +10.0%
New Mexico- Biden +14.5%
Alaska- Trump +3.0%
Writing for Sabato's Crystal Ball yesterday, Alan Abramowitz reported that an analysis of recent state polls shows Trump losing. Trump is ahead in 15 states with 154 electoral votes and he's losing in 20 states with 298 electoral votes. That's enough to win, even though there is insufficient polling data available for 15 states and the District of Columbia (86 electoral votes). But, going beyond the current polling Sabato's Crystal Ball has some state by state predictions that give Biden 27 states and the District of Columbia with 352 electoral votes and Trump 23 states with 186 electoral votes. Here's a state by state prediction (along with Hillary's 2016 performance):

According to their analysis, Trump will do worse in November than he did in 2016 in every state except very marginally in DC, where Hillary won with 86.8% but where Biden may "only" get 81.4%. Trump's numbers have fallen drastically even in the deepest red hellholes like Wyoming, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Alabama the Dakotas and Idaho. But more importantly, he is down significantly in every swing state-- every single one, and enough so to remove Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (119 electoral votes) from the Trump column.

Abramowitz concluded that In 2016, Señor Trumpanzee "shocked the political world by pulling off a victory in the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote by more than two percentage points. The key to his victory was winning several large swing states including Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by very narrow margins. Based on recent polling data, however, Trump appears unlikely to duplicate his 2016 feat. He is currently trailing in every 2016 swing state, including Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, although the margin in Florida is very close. Meanwhile, he is being forced to invest time and money defending several states that he won easily in 2016. In contrast, Joe Biden appears to be comfortably ahead in every state that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. Barring a major comeback in the final weeks of the campaign or very large and systematic polling errors, the incumbent appears to be headed for a decisive defeat in both the popular vote and the electoral vote."

Trump has thrown everyone under the bus-- congressional Republicans are next

Trump's toxicity spells very bad news for Republican Senate-- and, presumably, House-- incumbents. While these numbers aren't directly helpful in predicting House races, they show it that Senate incumbents Dan Sullivan (R-AK), Martha McSally (R-AZ), Cory Gardner (R-CO), David Perdue (R-GA), Kelly Loeffler (R-GA), Joni Ernest (R-IA), Susan Collins (R-ME), Steve Daines (R-MT), Thom Tillis (R-NC), Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and John Cornyn (R-TX) each has a giant albatross hanging around his or her neck going into November. It isn't likely they'll all lose, but it is very likely that Chuck Schumer is going to be the next majority leader (God help us all).



At 5:47 AM, Anonymous ap215 said...

We can only hope neoliberal corporatist Chuck’s tenure as Senate Majority Leader is only for 2 years & he’ll be replaced by a true progressive candidate in 2022 as for Trump his last resort for him if it’s a blowout on Election Night is the Supreme Court he & the GOP really wants to fast track Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination so they could fill RBG’s seat & sue Biden for “massive election fraud” & steal the election that’s why they want it 6-3.

At 6:18 AM, Anonymous Hone said...

Let's hope polls turn into votes that are counted. That is what faces this country.

Last night Trump should have been dragged off stage and taken to a mental institution. That this raving lunatic expects to continue in office is just horrific. He is an insane, malevolent monster. He has no plans for actually governing our country, only keeping himself out of prison and avoiding financial ruin.

At 6:37 AM, Anonymous Ida Jurie said...

6:18- Perfectly said.

At 7:16 AM, Anonymous ap215 said...

GA There are two names for now who are challenging Schumer in 2022 Khaled Salem & Sam Seder.

At 7:42 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I kinda understand what this green anonymous poster is saying about the corporate establishment running our politics but i will say there’s hope on the horizon for third parties it’s called Ranked Choice Voting & when the Dems expand by winning legislation seats in certain states Campaign Finance Reform will be on it’s way.

At 9:27 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Long before we can get to implementing ranked-choice voting, we have to keep Kim Jong Trump from imposing his long-desired dictatorship on the nation. The polls are only going to inspire him to attempt to stop the election by any means necessary.

The current JCOS, General Milley, does NOT inspire me as a man of action. He has been called upon by hundreds of former high-ranking retired officers to express opposition to any move Trump might choose to make to overthrow the legitimate (I use that term advisedly) government of the United States of America. He has not done so.

What he has said could be used to train the waffle cooks at your favorite breakfast restaurant chain.

By the by, Officers of Milley's rank get paid More per month than too many American civilians make in an entire year.

At 10:47 AM, Blogger Cugel said...

While Trump will send his Proud Boys to instigate chaos at the polls in PA and WI and FL, and hope that the S.Ct. invalidates enough ballots to throw the election, this is looking less and less likely.

It has been long acknowledged by experts that it is easy enough to steal a close election if the party in power is ruthless enough -- 2000 proved that.

But, if Trump is trailing by 7% and around 4-5% in PA, 7-8% in WI, and MI is off the table that's a different story. Trump should lose PA by around 300,000 votes if the polling is accurate; perhaps by 200,000 if it's closer than expected.

And he has to do this in AZ and FL and NC as well, since he's losing all of these states at present. Will the S.Ct. be willing to halt the election and throw it into even more chaos?

Well, the Roger Taney court tried to do that in the 1850's with Dredd Scott, so there's some precedent. But, Taney had no idea his decision would result in the Civil War. Roberts knows perfectly well that nobody will see a judicial hand-off to Trump as anything legitimate. Trumpites see the Court as being the personal property of Trump and the GOP. Democrats see it as an openly declared enemy. That's not a good place for Roberts to be.

Trump can't lose ANY of these states: FL, AZ, NC, PA, OH. And he's not ahead in any of them at present. So, is the Court going to stop the counting of mail-in ballots in all of them? What about the ballots already counted by the time that they get to their ruling? Will those count?

So, things are currently looking "good" in the sense that Trump is not close enough to steal it unless something changes or the S.Ct. just decides to take the lumps for just declaring Trump the victor.

That would be so illegitimate that Democrats would probably still try and fight it, unlike Gore in 2000.

At 11:01 AM, Blogger Ten Bears said...

I warned yaw'l last time about counting your chickens, you didn't listen.

At 4:33 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

They didn't have any chickens to count, Chief TB. They had to pay their doctor fees with them.


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