Thursday, August 20, 2020

Global Warming Is Accelerating. (In Other News, Democrats Reverse Platform, Won't End Fossil Fuel Subsidies)


The three colors in the chart represent odds that a season will be perceived as cool (blue), normal (white) or hot (red). In 1950 to 1980, if represented on a six-sided dice, there were two blue sides, two red sides and two white sides. "The dice are now loaded, really loaded. ... Four sides of the die are now red (hot) and one side is deep red for extreme heat, more than three standard deviations warmer than in 1951-1980. Dark red (22%) is creeping onto another side" (James Hansen et. al.)

by Thomas Neuburger

As we contemplate the political events of the week — the Republican takeover of the Democratic Party and convention; Democratic media adjunct MSNBC lying about AOC's Party-approved nomination of Bernie Sanders (before changing their headline); Bill Clinton daring to show his face in public, and post-MeToo leadership letting him — it's nevertheless impossible not to be overwhelmed by this.

 • "Good morning. The Greenland ice sheet has past the melting point of no return"

"[I]ce that’s discharging into the ocean is far surpassing the snow that’s accumulating on the surface of the ice sheet" — Michalea King, lead author of the study and a researcher at The Ohio State University’s Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center.

"[S]tarting in 2000, you start superimposing that seasonal melt on a higher baseline—so you’re going to get even more losses,” meaning the melt-rate has permanently accelerated while the snowfall has not. 

But there's a bright side: “It’s always a positive thing to learn more about glacier environments, because we can only improve our predictions for how rapidly things will change in the future ... The more we know, the better we can prepare.”

We're learning how to learn sooner how wrong we are, "so we can better prepare." That's the bright side.

 • "Record Arctic blazes may herald new ‘fire regime’ decades sooner than anticipated"

"Something’s changed in the environment there" — Mark Parrington, senior scientist and wildfire expert at the EU’s Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service.

“This is the type of fire event that would be described by these worst-case modeling scenarios that were supposed to occur mid-century” — Jessica McCarty, a wildfire expert at Miami University of Ohio.

Mid-century (2050) Arctic fires now occur regularly.

 • "Global warming is accelerating. 12-month mean peaked just below prior maximum"

"[G]lobal temperature is clearly running well above the linear trend that existed for decades" — climate scientist James Hansen

"1) That jump off the linear trend ought to scare the crap out of you. 2) Who but the careful public managers of your emotions say that being batcrap-scared is a useless response to the climate?" — Yours truly

Nonetheless, not everyone is scared.

 • "Democrats Drop Demand To End Fossil Fuel Subsidies From Party Platform"

"Roughly half of all U.S. oil reserves required subsidies to generate a profit, according to a study published in the journal Nature Energy in 2017, and that was before the price of crude plunged far below $50 a barrel." — Huffington Post writer Alexander Kaufman.

“This platform is a step backwards” — Charlie Jiang, Greenpeace.

• "DNC’s Flip-Flop on Fossil Fuel Subsidies Follows Deep Ties the Industry"

"In August 2018, the DNC approved a resolution from Chair Tom Perez that reversed a DNC policy prohibiting it from accepting contributions from fossil fuel PACs. ... Shortly thereafter, donations from fossil fuel executives began flowing into DNC coffers." — Donald Shaw, money-in-politics editor and co-founder, Sludge

 • "A-a-and we're done..." — Yours truly

If the question is climate, who with any power is the answer? Certainly not Joe Biden.

The real answer, of course, is the people, but only if they know it.

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At 9:38 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This goes out to anyone who hates Tom Perez Joe Biden & the corrupt corporate establishment.

At 10:34 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"The real answer, of course, is the people, but only if they know it."

NICE!! a rhetorical bashing of the American people, Thomas. not that they're capable of noticing.

Clearly the people don't know, don't give a flying zeptofuck... or probably both.

After all, they just blew off Bernie and his progressive-sounding rhetoric (iteratively proven to be lies, btw) to nominate the MOST corrupt, MOST neoliberal, MOST fascist and up there with the most racist and misogynist democrap motherfuckers (and democrap party) ever!

are you starting to believe me... that, wrt climate, it's already too late?
how about that the democrap party will never be of any help EVER?

keep digging. won't be long now before you see it. there is nobody else doing this. it's important.

At 12:41 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Basically, we've been paralyzed for 40 years because of blow-back from the Oil industry. Of course Democrats are in on it. But, in on what, exactly?

No Global Warming solutions that don't involve eliminating the oil industry will matter a damn. And no political party could push that kind of program through. It would be political suicide, not because the Party is corrupt and wouldn't do it, but because the American people and the world will NOT tolerate voluntary reductions in their standards of living. It's even worse than this, because even if the developed world went to zero net carbon emissions today, that still wouldn't save us if the developing world follows the energy development model of the West.

And they are not going to listen to us saying "we screwed things up. So, you're stuck without energy production! Sorry! You'll just have to burn peat for the next couple of hundred years and suffer in rags!" They will develop oil based energy systems because they are cheaper. China is already selling such technology to third world countries, while they develop their own solar industry at home.

It will take massive geoengineering projects to artificially reduce sunlight - just to give us enough time to develop a longer term strategy.

After 40 years of failure, we've run out of time. And you can blame the American people for this. WE are the problem. Not just the Global Warming deniers or the corrupt GOP or the media or corporate Dems on subsidies.

We are unwilling to make any sacrifices for the future. Tell the American people that stopping global warming will require massive changes in their lifestyle and see how many people will support you!

The only good thing about all this is that industry and Wall Street are not going to be in denial mode along with the science denying GOP for long because Global Warming will kill their profits. It's already starting. Trump has opened the Alaska Wildlife Refuge for drilling -- and no major oil company will ever drill there. They're not interested. It's just Trump doing it to own the libs.

And there's going to be massive profits to be made from converting to a renewable energy future.

At 1:50 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oh & Nancy (please no dem incumbent primary challenges) Peolosi, just endorsed worthless primary challenger Kennedy, over Senate incumbent (Green New Deal) Ed Markey in MA. i.e. no standards, no beliefs except for: 'No progressives, because we're really just republican ball markers on the Corporate Golf greens (tips will be appreciated!!).

At 2:42 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Trump could always ignite a nuclear attack against Iran and reverse the rapidly heating environment with nuclear winter. Then think of how he'd crow about what a grate (sic) leader he is to his spineless lackeys in the White House as food supplies for the rest of us are consumed and people freeze while starving to death in the dark - assuming radiation or COVID don't get them first.


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