Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Will The Republican Plague Lead To Voters Repudiating Trumpism In Landslide Proportions?


Four months before people will be filling in their absentee ballots Trump's national approval rating has been cratering. The latest Ipsos poll for Reuters, shows him with just 37% approving (+2% leaning towards approval) and 55% disapproving (and again with 2% leaning towards disapproval). Among registered voters, the poll shows Biden leading Trump 47-37%.

When it comes it his actions on confronting the pandemic, he's a dead man walking-- Only 17% strongly approve, while 44% strongly disapprove. And with the pandemic sweeping through Trump strongholds in Texas, Florida, Arizona, Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Arkansas, South Carolina, Iowa and North Carolina and starting to come on strong in Oklahoma and Missouri, voters who "somewhat approve" and "lean" approve are going to increasingly move towards disapprove. The latest Georgia poll, for example, just came out from Fox News. Keeping in mind that Trump beat Hillary by over 5 points-- 50.44% to 45.35%-- the new poll must be panicking the Trump campaign. Biden is actually leading Trump 47-45%. When asked who will do a better job handling the coronavirus, Biden leads Trump by 4 points. Trump's overall disapproval is 51% with just 47% approving.

Yesterday, a Politico headline went right to the crux of the matter: A Sun Belt time bomb threatens Trump’s reelection. Natasha Korecki and Marc Caputo wrote that the explosion of COVID-19 cases in Sun Belt states is becoming another albatross for Trump's campaign and "Republican governors in Florida, Arizona and Texas followed Trump’s lead by quickly reopening their states while taking a lax approach to social distancing and mask-wearing. Now each of them is seeing skyrocketing coronavirus caseloads and rising hospitalizations, and Republican leaders are in retreat. It’s hard to overstate the gravity of the situation for Trump: Lose any one of the three states, and his reelection is all but doomed. Liberal outside groups and the Biden campaign have launched digital and TV ads in Florida, Arizona and Texas hitting Trump for allowing a second wave of coronavirus. The developments have buttressed Biden’s main argument against Trump: that he’s incapable of bringing stability or healing in a time of crisis... Trump’s campaign accuses Democrats of exploiting tragedy."

These are the Sunday ---> Monday new cases and the (number of cases per million people) in these 4 states:
Florida +8,530 (6,568 cases per million) ---> 5,266 (8,814 cases per million)
Texas +4,330 (5,283 cases per million) ---> 6,135 (5,494 cases per million)
Arizona +3,857 (10,154 cases per million) ---> 3,079 (10,577 cases per millions)
Georgia +2,225 (7,272 cases per million) ---> 2,207 (7,480)
Korecki and Caputo summarized the situation in each state and certainly Florida and Arizona look dire for Trump at this point. Phoenix Congressman Rubin Gallego, they wrote, "expects hospitalizations and deaths to rise in the coming weeks in the state. 'Ballots drop in October. The president essentially has two months to try to turn this around in Arizona,' Gallego said. By then, 'What’s going to be on the TV is Covid-19.' In late March, Republican Gov. Doug Ducey issued an executive order barring local governments from requiring masks in public. Two weeks ago, Ducey reversed himself amid pressure from mayors, residents and health care professionals. As infections surged, Trump held a rally last week with thousands at a Phoenix mega-church, where photos showed the crowd sitting in close proximity and few wearing masks. Ducey brushed off calls to cancel the event. Days before, Phoenix required mask-wearing, but the city order was ignored. 'We’re going to protect people’s rights to assemble in an election year,' Ducey told reporters at a press conference last week, defending his decision to wait until after the Trump event to emphasize to all Arizonans to wear masks. Trump won Arizona by just three-and-a-half percentage points in 2016, with the help of suburban voters. 'Those suburbs that initially won Arizona for Trump have soured since,' said Mike Noble of OH Predictive Insights, who polls the state for non-partisan clients."

Texas is a harder nut to crack for Democrats, who haven't had a presidential win since Carter ran in 1976 but demographics are moving blue and the Democrats flipped 2 congressional seats last cycle and look likely to win 4 more this year (TX-10, TX-21, TX-23 and TX-25). strong Democratic campaigns in districts previously ignored by Democrats, will help the top of the ticket and if Biden campaigns there-- Hillary ignored the state except for fundraising among corrupt elites-- Texas could flip.

Gov. Abbott "moved to reopen Texas in early May even though it had not met benchmarks set by the Trump administration. The state had one of the shortest shutdown in the country. At the time, Trump applauded Abbott. 'Texas is opening up and a lot of places are opening up. And we want to do it, and I’m not sure that we even have a choice,' Trump said during an Oval Office meeting on May 7 with Abbott. 'I think we have to do it. You know, this country can’t stay closed and locked down for years.' Texas soon saw the proportion of coronavirus tests that came back positive spike to nearly 12 percent, in addition to a record-breaking number of hospitalizations. Last week, Abbott said Covid-19 'is now spreading at an unacceptable rate in Texas, and it must be corralled.' He ordered bars to re-close and restaurants to limit capacity to 50 percent, down from 75 percent." That isn't enough to slow anything down much and by the time people are voting, Houston won't be the only city without hospital capacity for new patients.

"Of the three states," wrote Caputo, "only Florida has been a true presidential swing state in recent decades. If Trump loses its 29 Electoral College votes, his chances of a second term are close to zero. The Real Clear Politics polling average in Florida has Biden ahead by nearly 7 percentage points. Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, a staunch Trump ally, has offered mixed messaging in response to coronavirus. He's repeatedly boasted about his 'data-driven' approach but refused to heed advice from medical experts who say that a statewide mask-wearing order would work. While DeSantis said he was deferring to local governments, Republicans filed a lawsuit last week when a mask-wearing ordinance was passed by Leon County, where the state Capitol is located. 'Our people are ticked off. Most of them are upset about the media coverage about the coronavirus and feel it’s overblown and it’s part of a strategy to bring down the president,' said Evan Power, chairman of the county GOP, the plaintiff in the lawsuit."

Goal ThermometerBlue America is in the middle of a campaign to support state legislative candidates running in red districts that have not even been contested by the hapless Florida Democratic Party in recent years. If nothing else, these candidates are going to turn out votes up the ballot. Some may also win because of the anti-Republican tsunami headed towards Florida. The Blue America Florida thermometer on the right will allow you to contribute to progressives running for Congress, state Senate and state House, all in one place. Even a dollar to each candidate will help.

"While many Democrats have watched their poll numbers rise as they’ve handled coronavirus," continued Caputo, "DeSantis’s approval ratings have dropped (though, unlike Trump, he’s still above water). Emboldened Democrats released an ad on Twitter last week contrasting DeSantis’s swagger in late May with the recent rise in coronavirus infections. State Democratic Party Executive Director Juan Peñalosa said he’s considering putting money behind the ad because 'it struck a nerve. Trump has botched every stage of this response and people are starting to see DeSantis as Trump’s lapdog,' Peñalosa said." This is the ad:

Dr. Elias Zerhouni was director of the National Institutes of Health in 2005 when George W. Bush was president. Yesterday he assessed Trump's response to the pandemic for NPR:
It was basically amateur hour. There is no central concept of operations for preparedness, for pandemics, period. This administration doesn't want to or has no concept of what it takes to protect the American people and the world because it is codependent. You can't close your borders and say, "OK, we're going to be safe." You're not going to be able to do that in this world. So it's a lack of vision, basically just a lack of understanding, of what it takes to protect the American people.

I bet Dr Zerhouni has a very high IQ-- a lot higher than the doofus who can't even put on a mask

It's what I call the boom and bust of preparedness. The old saying that we use for NIH is if you think research is expensive, try disease. And in this case, Claire Pomeroy from the Lasker Foundation came up with a different sentence: "If you think preparedness is expensive, try a pandemic." That's where we're living. It's a result of lack of preparation and short-term thinking.
What people are thinking of as the Republican Plague is causing businesses and governments to pull back from opening up plans. Some have reimposed restrictions. Voters are blaming Trump and his puppet governors like Abbott, DeSantis, Ducey and Kemp. CNN reported that with July 4 approaching, "officials are trying not to repeat scenes from Memorial Day, when thousands across the country flocked to beaches, bars and parties while experts cautioned the crowds could lead to spikes in cases down the road. Remember, the U.S. accounts for just 4% of the world's population, but because of Trump's incompetence and malignant narcissism, our country has 25% of the cases and deaths, At least 12 states-- or parts of states-- have slammed on the brakes, including Texas, California, Florida, Washington.

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At 12:47 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bark, bark, bark.

There is NO guarantee that any election will be held fairly, that the voters won't be suppressed (forget about the ONE polling place in Louisville already?), and that the ballots will even be counted.

The fact that the polls are reading so heavily against Trump despite him running against a warmed-over cadaver only means that every trick in the book will be utilized to deliver electoral victory to Trump. Failing that, he will declare martial law and "enlist" the armed rabble that follows him into the streets to prevent anyone from doing anything about it. It still isn't clear which side the military -the ones actually toting the guns and not carrying briefcases- will join. There are too many reports of how the Evangeliban and fascists have enlisted for military training and access to weaponry to ignore this possibility.

I have ZERO faith in the "Democratic" Party to do anything about this. I have even less in the voting public, who can be easily swayed with an intensive ad campaign.

At 1:07 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

polling showed $hillbillary would win.

And even if the trump/Nazi plague anti-reds biden to a win, we'll still be under the anvil of the biden/democrap plague.

that plague, administered by obamanation, harriet reid and pelo$i cost the democraps the house only 2 years later.... and the democraps have not recovered yet. And they won't this time either, since they had 60 in the senate. the democraps will never again get there.

interesting how we're so fucking stupid that all we can choose from is one plague or the other plague.

but that's how we vote. so we must like it that way.

At 4:03 PM, Blogger Ten Bears said...

Reminds me of a character and plot line from one of Frank Herbert's books: Rabban. Beast Rabban, an admistrator so odious, so deliberately hated by the population so as to welcome an incoming administrator as Messiah. Tis no concolation now that it didn't turn out so well for the Corporarists in the end.


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