Friday, May 22, 2020

Trump And His Enablers Are Headed For Historic Landslide Losses-- But There's No Blue Wave

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And the winner is... Not-Trump

The Democratic candidate for president its probably the worst in my lifetime-- and I'm old. Let me think for a second. Worse than Adlai Stevenson-- check; worse than JFK-- check; worse than LBJ-- check; worse than Humphrey-- check; worse than McGovern-- check; worse than Carter-- check; worse than Mondale-- check; worse than Dukakis-- check; worse than Bill Clinton-- check; worse than Gore-- hmmmm, yeah, check; worse than Kerry-- Jesus, Democrats nominated some really bad candidates, but, yeah, check; worse than Obama-- check; worse than Hillary-- oy, but, yes, Biden is worse than Hillary. It would seem Biden is utterly unelectable-- horribly conservative to an increasingly progressive Democratic base, a little bit racist, a lot corporatist, a warmonger, perhaps more senile and incapable than Trump, a family almost as corrupt as Trump's, a reflexive liar nearly as bad as Trump... If this election is a referendum on the incumbent, all Biden has to do is keep breathing.

And the slate of DSCC Senate candidates? A whole pack of Kyrsten Sinemas... courtesy of Chuck Schumer. He's managed and continues managing to obliterate progressives in favor of corrupt, status quo establishment anti-leaders-- Theresa Greenfield in Iowa, Sara Gideon in Maine, Barbara Bollier (an actual Republican) in Kansas, Cal Cunningham in North Carolina, Amy McGrath in Kentucky, Jon Ossoff in Georgia, Jamie Harrison in South Carolina, Frackenlooper in Colorado, Ben Ray Lujan in New Mexico, Al Gross (not a Democrat) in Alaska, Mark Kelly (maybe a Democrat?) in Arizona, and MJ Heger in Texas. Oh, don't get me wrong; I think most of them-- not Heger, Harrison or McGrath-- will win. I'm just sickened at the thought of a Senate filled with conservative Democrats on a Manchin/Sinema level of garbage redefining what means to be a Democrat. Schumer has continued fixing the polls so that the firms only ask about his candidates in match-ups and ignore progressives in states with tight primaries like Iowa, Colorado, Marine and Georgia. Look what Civiqs found today, something you'd never know if you only watched the corrupt polling firms being paid off by Schumer:




The DCCC is at least as bad as the DSCC, with Cheri Bustos pushing to recruit and push incredibly bad candidates. The DCCC just saw what that got them in CA-25. The last special election to fill an open House seat is next month and though Nate McMurray came incredibly close to winning in 2018, the DCCC has decided he's too progressive and refuses to back him now, when he's likely to flip the reddest (R+11) congressional district in New York.




McMurray has raised $517,768, while the Trumpist sociopath the GOP is running against him, Chris Jacobs has "raised" $1,250,506 ($446,000 from his own pocket). The DCCC and Pelosi's SuperPAC have spent exactly zero dollars and the only outside money in the race came from Club for Growth backing another Republican even further right than Jacobs! Cheri Bustos is the worst DCCC chair since her mentor Rahm Emanuel.

Anyway, back to the point-- Dems will win by default in November... not because they have anything to offer anyone, but because they're not Trump and not his enablers. The promise is a wretched return to normalcy... the same putrid "normalcy" that allowed a profane and bigoted TV reality show crackpot to slither into the White House. His incompetence in regard to the pandemic has made him toxic in the minds of most voters. He will drag the GOP down the toilet in November and then Biden will drag the Democrats down the toilet in 2022.

CNN's Matt Egan: "The economy has gone from President Donald Trump's greatest political asset to perhaps his biggest weakness. Unemployment is spiking at an unprecedented rate. Consumer spending is vanishing. And GDP is collapsing. History shows that dreadful economic trends like these spell doom for sitting presidents seeking reelection. The coronavirus recession will cause Trump to suffer a 'historic defeat' in November, a national election model released Wednesday by Oxford Economics predicted... The model has correctly predicted the popular vote in every election since 1948 other than 1968 and 1976 (although two candidates lost the popular vote but won the presidency in that span, including George W. Bush in 2000 and Donald Trump in 2016)."
The national election model assumes that the economy is still in bad shape this fall, with unemployment above 13%, real per capita incomes down nearly 6% from a year ago and brief period of falling prices, or deflation.

"The economy would still be in a worse state than at the depth of the Great Depression," the Oxford Economics report said.

A separate state-based election model run by Oxford Economics that incorporates local economic trends and gasoline prices predicts Trump will badly lose the electoral college by a margin of 328 to 210. That model forecasts that seven battleground states will flip to Democrats: Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina.

"We would expect these states to experience significant economic contractions and traumatic job losses that would likely swing pocketbook vote," the report said.
I doubt they're right about Missouri, but no fears-- Trump will lose Arizona and possibly Florida or even Georgia. And if we look at the states where Trump is being judged inadequate to handle the pandemic-- in the 5am post this morning-- Trump would only get 61 electoral votes (so not even Texas, Utah or Alabama, which is, of course, absurd.) And actually 60 is the number, because Nebraska's second congressional district (Omaha) will give its single electoral vote to... not-Trump.





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12 Comments:

At 9:20 AM, Blogger davidchop said...

Republicans are gleefully killing people and breaking thing, an DWT once again takes the opportunity to... trash Democrats. You're part of the problem.

 
At 9:21 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think it's going to be tough to win GA and FL, because of who controls the levers of power in the state. If there was a clean election, he might. But I think it's unlikely that either GA or FL will be clean elections. AZ is one case where the Dems have a decent shot.

 
At 10:14 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

In chasing after middle manager suburban Republican voters and ignoring their working-class base, the Democratic Party might as well commit public seppuku to atone for their dishonorable abandonment of their duties to the nation. They lost.

 
At 10:31 AM, Blogger DownWithTyranny said...

David, I would recommend saving yourself the heartburn by reading Daily Kos for the rest of the campaign season., DWT probably isn't the place you should be. This isn't a Democratic Party or Republican Party blog. This is an anti-Democratic Party and anti-Republican Party blog. No one hates Trump as much as we do. That doesn't make corporate Democrats any better.

 
At 11:30 AM, Anonymous RetiredPatriot said...

We can all agree that "national" and even "state" democratic organizations seem to have no interest in supporting Nate McMurray in NY-27. Even when his grassroots fundraising outperforms the self-funded multi-millionaire GOP (once Never-, now Full-) Trumper. But maybe, just maybe, Blue America PAC can spend some coin and support McMurray - especially in the last 30 days before the Special Election? Let's put real support behind the encouraging words and flip NY-27! I can think of nothing more symbolic than putting a true Democrat into the gerrymandered, by design GoP seat once held by the convicted felon, prison-bound Trump-endorser Chris Collins.

Please -- Blue America -- we need your help!

RP

 
At 1:19 PM, Blogger DownWithTyranny said...

Retired Patriot, Blue America asking people to contribute to Nate's campaign here:

https://bit.ly/2znn7gV

 
At 1:22 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why then does DWT unabashedly shill for more democraps? for democrap majorities?

I mean, you do speak truth about a lot of democraps. But I still don't see how you square shilling for democraps with trashing the democrap party.

"I'm just sickened at the thought of a Senate filled with conservative Democrats on a Manchin/Sinema level of garbage redefining what means to be a Democrat."

Yep. DWT has been saying this... but still shills for democrap senate candidates that scummer won't allow and voters won't elect and wouldn't change the party either way.

I'd really love to hear your theory. Cuz that theory has been disproved for 40 years.

flat earth? earth-centric universe?

and, yep, I know this means you'll delete this.

 
At 1:32 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

trump and his family of grifters were certain to lose bigly in 2016 too... and then he won.

and $hillbillary was a bazillion times the candidate that biden is.

if biden wins it only proves that americans are even dumber than I know them to be... which is theoretically possible I suppose.

trump wins with a similar number of electors as in 2016. The only variable is by how many electors. He might win by even more.

 
At 11:01 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon 1:32 PM. Biden is a worse candidate the Clinton. He has wasted over a year and still doesn't appear to have any real campaign organization.

On the other hand, unemployment is heading to 30%. Over 100,000 Americans have died of COVID-19, and those numbers are going to continue to go up in the next few months. The economic crisis is likely to start hitting people harder too, given the GOP's inclination to force desperate people to risk their lives for GDP. Biden's political profile has also tended to result in less scrutiny from powerful interests. I think a segment of capital that was agnostic towards Trump in 2016, will see Biden as more pliable -- especially on things like China trade policy.

In 2016, Trump benefited from the benefit of the doubt and from the absence of a political track record. He could be all things to all people. In the primary he ran as an unconventional Republican who would protect Social Security and Medicare; who praised the UK's national health care system; who criticized the GOP's foreign policy orthodoxy and who would undo bad trade deals; as well as enact a racist immigration policy. As a party nominee there were doubts about his commitment to social conservatism, which he had to address with his VP pick. He also shifted his position on every economic commitment other than trade. Now he has a record. He had sky high negatives (still does). At this point, he's consolidated the GOP base, in a way that was not true in 2016. However, he's weaker with independents, and part of the GOP base has migrated to the Dems since 2016. Against an opponent who had a positive vision and campaign infrastructure, Trump might lose by double-digits. I think there's a decent change he still loses to a hapless Biden. 306-198. Biden picks up NC, AZ, MI, PA, WI, and one electoral vote in Nebraska.

The sad fact though is that there can be no real winners in a Biden v. Trump campaign. The signal that we are broadcasting to the world and future generations is that the U.S. is a country without any standards or self-respect.

 
At 5:55 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

11:01, all true.

However, he doesn't need his entire base. He didn't even get his entire base in '16.

He consistently polls at 40%. But he won with 31%.

he'll still get his 31%. probably more since a lot of his base that was skeptical in '16 now views him as their savior against communism or blacks or some other form of hate.

what you say about biden... big anti-blue wave. I agree.

I just see the amplitude of the anti-blue being so much greater than the one in '16 that he cannot win.

Just remember how positive all the polling was that $hillbillary was going to win in a landslide in '16?

voter suppression? fraudulent counting? the supreme court? all that is still in play if the Nazis need it.

 
At 6:05 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

11:01, your conclusion is spot on. if biden is our best lefty, we well and truly suck.

I know first-hand that the rest of the world knows how badly we suck. To them, the lesser evil on this future venus is china.

ponder that all you devout lesser-evilists.

 
At 6:40 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Biden opens mouth, has to apologize. Calls black voters who support trump 'not black'.

there is a looooooong way to go before November. biden will do nothing but make the anti-blue wave bigger between now and then.

 

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