Remember When Arizona Used To Be The Reddest State In America? Trump Has Changed That

Arizona Governor Doug Ducey has done a bad job for his state in confronting the pandemic and the chickens are starting to come home to roost. Ducey chose to listen to Trump instead of the medical professionals and Arizona is headed for a tough Wave II. Yesterday there were 396 new cases reported, bringing the total caseload to 14,566 (704 deaths). The state crossed the 2,000 cases per million line, a bad omen for a state rushing willy-nilly to re-open.

Yesterday Arizona's premier polling firm, OH Predictive Insights, headquartered in Phoenix, released a new survey that is devastating for the ArizonaRepublican Party. Headline" Arizona Visit Does Nothing to Boost Trump Fortunes in Arizona. Overall, Señor Trumpanzee is trailing Biden by 7 points.

"Trump," they wrote, "visited a Honeywell factory in early May. However, the president is stuck at 43 percent for the third OHPI poll in a row. Conversely, Former Vice President Biden continues to hover near the 50 percent level for the third straight poll. 'President Trump is going to have to do a lot more than parachute into Arizona to boost his sagging numbers,' said OHPI Chief of Research, Mike Noble. 'With six months to go until Election Day, Trump is going to have to invest heavily in Arizona to pull out a victory in The Grand Canyon State.'"

Although the margin between the two candidates shrunk by two points since April’s AZPOP poll of the race, the share of supporters who say they support Trump remains unchanged at 43 percent. The narrowing of the race comes from Joe Biden falling from 52 percent support in April to 50 percent in May.

Looking at the electorate in terms of economic status, Donald Trump is performing best among middle-income voters. He is statistically tied with Joe Biden among those making between $50k and $99k per year, while Biden leads by double digits among voters who make less than $50k or more than $99k.

The split among white voters of different levels of educational attainment that has been seen nationally shows itself in Arizona, too. Trump finds strength in white, non-college educated voters-- although there are signs his support among this group may not be as strong as it was when he won them in 2016. He is leading Joe Biden among non-college educated white voters by 6 points but trailing by 11 among whites who have a college degree.

Another key constituency who will play a role in deciding the winner of the 2020 election are the voters who have unfavorable views of both candidates. As it stands now, 44 percent of Arizona likely voters have favorable views of President Trump and 51 percent view Joe Biden favorably. On the other hand, 53 percent of voters view Trump unfavorably and 45 percent say the same of Joe Biden.

While the overall number of voters who have unfavorable views of both candidates is small (about 6 percent of the sample), the gap in their support is striking. More than six in ten (63%) of these voters say they would vote for Joe Biden, whereas only 6 percent say they would vote for Donald Trump.

The all-important lesser of two evils vote

"As this election heats up and negative ads from both sides pour into Arizona, the share of voters who dislike both candidates is sure to rise," says OHPI data analyst Jacob Joss, "Who they end up supporting will be a determining factor come November."

And that ain't all, folks. The Arizona Republic is the biggest newspaper in the state and they had equally bad news for Ducey-appointed Senator Martha McSally, as she continues her slide towards political oblivion. Laurie Roberts: "The latest tracking poll shows Republican Sen. Martha McSally losing ground to Democrat Mark Kelly but that's not what should have her reaching for the Maalox."

From the Republican uh-oh department: Arizona Sen. Martha McSally is sliding in the polls, dropping four percentage points in a month.

McSally now trails Democrat Mark Kelly by 13 points, according to the latest tracking poll by OH Predictive Insights.

While the April poll of 600 likely voters favored Kelly 51% to McSally’s 42%, in May it’s now 51%-38%.

The poll shows independents breaking more than 2-1 for Kelly.

“McSally is doing terribly,” pollster Mike Noble told me on Monday. “There’s no way to find a bright spot on that one.”

And that’s not even the bad news for McSally.

The bad news comes from Maricopa County, where Republicans rule.

At least, they did rule, until Democrat Kyrsten Sinema defeated McSally there in 2018-- stealing 88 mostly-suburban precincts that normally would go to the Republican nominee.

McSally's declining support lies within the 4 percent margin of error in the May tracking poll, a blend of live and automated calls made between May 9 to May 11. But her Maricopa County numbers are a disaster.

In May 2019, this same tracking poll showed Kelly up over McSally, 46%-41%, among likely voters in Maricopa County.

In May 2020, Kelly has climbed to 54% in Maricopa County while McSally has dropped to 36%.

Just think about that for a moment. Kelly has gone from a five-point advantage in Maricopa County to an 18-point cruise.

That’s a stunner when you consider that Maricopa County in recent years always has gone for Republicans (well, except for now-ex-state Superintendent Diane Douglas and McSally).

More stunning still: the fact that the state's most populous county is the one place that McSally must win if she wants to hang onto that Senate seat yet she has done nothing to appeal to the independents and moderate Republican voters who likely will decide this race.

"Maricopa County is the key for Republicans winning," Noble said. "It's the key to Trump’s re-election but it’s also key for the Senate seat. Maricopa County is where the battle is at and right now it’s not going well for McSally."

I’ve never understood McSally’s strategy-- why she decided to become a Donald Trump pocket pal when it was obvious she lost in 2018 because she campaigned as a Donald Trump pocket pal.

Now she’s facing a campaign that will be solely a referendum on Trump.

Of course, the four-point drop in McSally’s numbers over the last month could be attributable to the campaign ads that are pummeling her.





The Lincoln Project, an anti-Trump conservative super PAC run in part by George Conway, began running attack ads against McSally two days before this poll went into the field. Democratic groups have been beating her up on the airwaves since last fall.

Whose approval rating, by the way, now stands at 45% in Arizona, according to the poll.

Republicans, meanwhile, have been mostly silent on the campaign front. The Senate Leadership Fund, run by allies of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, plans to spend $9.2  million to try to boost McSally but not until the fall.

Meanwhile, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, faced with possible loss of the Senate, recently pushed the panic button, announcing plans to move ahead in June with a $5.7 million ad campaign to try to save the appointed senator who now trails by double digits.

Me? I'm wondering what took them so long.