Opening Up Too Fast Is The Biggest Mistake Governors Are Making

The U.S. seems to be on track to cross the 100,000 COVID-death mark during the Memorial Day Weekend. Yesterday new cases dropped dramatically in the hardest hit states-- New York (+887) and New Jersey (+1,082). But cases are rising just as dramatically in states that aren't encouraging social distancing and masks and that are opening recklessly and not in accord with the White House guidelines. I call them the Wave II states and these are yesterday's raw case increases plus the cases per million, first reported on May 13 and then on May 20: [Note- I'm including the Florida numbers even though they are as fake as China's numbers.]

• Nebraska- plus 276 cases-- 4,691 to 5,750 cases per million
• Iowa- plus 265 cases-- 4,212 to 4,949 cases per million
• South Dakota- plus 92 cases-- 4,219 to 4,722 cases per million
• Indiana- plus 569 cases-- 3,784 to 4,348 cases per million
• Mississippi- plus 263 cases-- 3,390 to 4,021 cases per million
• Colorado- plus 315 cases-- 3,555 to 3,959 cases per million
• Virginia- plus 763 cases-- 3,133 to 3,855 cases per million
• Georgia- plus 792 cases-- 3,337 to 3,734 cases per million
• North Dakota- plus 101 cases-- 2,161 to 2,749 cases per million
• Tennessee- plus 154 cases-- 2,397 to 2,714 cases per million
• Nevada- plus 120 cases-- 2,076 to 2,327 cases per million
• Florida- plus 527 cases-- 1,974 to 2,210 cases per million
• Arizona- plus 331 cases-- 1,673 to 2,047 cases per million
• Texas- plus 979 cases-- 1,500 to 1,781 cases per million

The Daily Beast's national security reporter, Erin Banco had an interesting perspective on national security yesterday, writing that "a new analysis being reviewed by the White House shows southern states that moved too quickly to relax social distancing guidelines face significant risk for a resurgence of the coronavirus over the next several weeks. In several cases, counties will see hundreds of additional cases by June 17. The study, which was put together by PolicyLab at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, is part of a data set being reviewed by top coronavirus task force officials and people working with the team... A previous model by the PolicyLab predicted that if officials moved too quickly and too aggressively to reopen in mid-May, individual counties could witness hundreds, if not a thousand-plus, more coronavirus cases reported each day by August 1."

The new model shows that in southern counties, particularly in Texas, Florida, Alabama, and Virginia, the risk for resurgence is high over the next four weeks. These states have moved to reopen, at least partially, since the team published its last model in April.

The data set now takes into consideration current levels of social distancing rather than projections about what would happen when local communities reopened. It also includes data for more than 200 additional counties across the country. The findings indicate that the risk for large second waves of outbreaks remains low if communities continue to implement cautious, incremental plans to reopening that limit crowding and travel to non-essential businesses. Doctors working on the study said that without vigilance in masking, hygiene, and disinfection, certain southern counties will remain high risk.

The new data, which has been presented to members of the White House’s coronavirus task force, is likely to validate fears by doctors and scientists, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top infectious disease official in the administration, that opening states too soon could have disastrous health consequences. The news comes as the Trump White House continues to promote the idea of local communities opening up for business, and as the president seeks to shuffle his coronavirus task force in a way that would allow members to focus on reopening the economy. On Wednesday, Vice President Mike Pence traveled to Florida, where he grabbed lunch at a burger joint where few patrons were wearing masks or practicing social distancing, according to photos of the event.

...“The key now is understanding the resurgence risk as social distancing begins to change. The picture our models are painting for Texas and Florida provide ample evidence to others who would choose to move too quickly,” the doctors working on the study wrote in an analysis associated with Wednesday’s update. “We see these concerns even as we adjust for additional testing capacity that might have inflated our forecasts.”

COVID-Don + COVID-Ron

Florida was one of the first states to reopen. Gov. Ron DeSantis allowed some beaches in the state to reopen in the middle of April even as other areas throughout the state were continuing to see an increasing number of coronavirus cases and related deaths. Since then, he allowed gyms, salons, and theme parks to open. Now, the governor is taking more drastic reopening measures, allowing Miami-Dade and Broward counties to reopen retails shops and salons.

As these communities reopen, individuals residing in Miami-Dade County will see the daily coronavirus case count spike from 232 to 785 over the next four weeks and from 68 to 211 in Broward County, according to the study's projections.

Dallas County in Texas will see a similar spike, as will Mobile and Montgomery counties in Alabama, the study says. In Dallas, the daily case count is projected to jump from 233 to 715 by June 17. In Montgomery it’s projected to go from 35 to 216. And in Mobile County the case count is projected to spike by more than 300 cases from 31 to 366 in the next month.

While states in the southern part of the country may suffer a second wave in the next few weeks, counties in the northeast, including hotspot states like New York and New Jersey, will see a decline in the daily number of coronavirus cases. Doctors working on the study attribute that decline to implementing slow, safe reopening measures. In both New York and New Jersey, state officials have moved to reopen parks, outdoor activity facilities, and some construction sites but have avoided allowing mass gatherings. Both states will soon begin to allow more nonessential businesses to reopen, including some doctors offices and retail stores.

In Essex County, New Jersey, for example, a county with one of the highest coronavirus case counts and death tolls in the nation, the case count will drop from 54 to 10 by June 17. And in Queens County, New York, where doctors have in the last few months been inundated with coronavirus patients, the case count will drop from 243 to 74 in the next four weeks, according to the study.

Looking through the study itself, I thought I would list the counties in California where they see imminent mega-spikes:

• Riverside, CA
• Imperial, CA
• Fresno, CA

The PolicyLab blog noted that "Many counties are now reopening; people are beginning to return to non-essential businesses and other aspects of their daily lives. Long-range scenario planning worked well for supporting policymakers in the decision of when to reopen while, on average, people across the country had reduced their visits to non-essential businesses like hair salons and restaurants by 70%. When looking across our data, the conclusion we reached was that reopening was possible, but only if done cautiously and slowly. We also foresaw in our models that counties would be aided in reopening by warming spring temperatures and increasing humidity, which seem to be reducing virus transmission." They saw that "some areas-- particularly in the south-- that have moved more quickly to reopen are showing a higher risk for resurgence. If people in Houston and Palm Beach, Fla., for example, aren’t being cautious with masking in indoor crowded locations and with hygiene and disinfection, local governments may need to intervene again should they lose control of the epidemic."

Disaster looms for Harris County, Texas

They also predict some bright news for "those communities that are remaining more cautious, or reopening slowly. Even as many in the media try to paint reopening as a binary decision-- the state has reopened or it hasn’t-- the truth is much more nuanced. Several governors are selectively opening regions with lower circulating cases and transmission. And when they do, most are still being cautious, reopening restaurants with reduced occupancy in many places and maintaining restrictions on large gatherings. In our data, this appears to manage the crisis well-- we see evidence of this throughout Colorado, for example."

El Paso County, Colorado looks much better

The picture their models are painting for Texas and Florida "provide ample evidence to others who would choose to move too quickly. We see these concerns even as we adjust for additional testing capacity that might have inflated our forecasts. Their main message remains: "If we stay vigilant, we can control the transmission of this virus."