Open Up Too Fast-- And Die

Die For Me by Nancy Ohanian

CNN reported that by today, every state will be at least partially reopened-- even though most of them do not meet the White House guidelines for reopening. "The last state to lift some restrictions will be Connecticut, which is set Wednesday to allow outdoor dining spaces, offices, retail stores and malls, museums and zoos to reopen with restrictions. The state hadn't shut down some services or businesses that other states did, such as parks or outdoor construction. But Gov. Ned Lamont acknowledged the financial costs of the restrictions the state did have. 'I'm afraid there could be a sea change,' he told CNN's New Day on Tuesday, when asked whether he calculated how many small businesses might not be able to recover. 'We'll see whether people feel comfortable going back to restaurants. Maybe there will be more takeout. The world will change.'"

Pictures from some parts of the country are now reminiscent of pre-pandemic times, with Americans venturing out to parks to soak in the spring sunshine, visiting beaches and gathering-- often unmasked-- in open bars and restaurants.

Yet as of Tuesday, at least 17 states have recorded a clear upward trend of average new daily cases-- a rise of at least 10%-- over the past seven days, according to an analysis based on data from Johns Hopkins University.

Only 16 states' average new daily cases dropped more than 10%. Some public health experts say declining case rates should be one guide for figuring when states should relax social distancing restrictions.

...New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Tuesday that his state will allow Memorial Day ceremonies of up to 10 people-- and that he hopes if they do happen, they're broadcast "in their areas so people can be part of honoring that tradition."

Earlier, he said New York, New Jersey, Delaware and Connecticut would all be opening their beaches Friday, ahead of Memorial Day celebrations.

In much of Florida, restaurants, malls, libraries and gyms were able to open at 50% capacity on Monday. Barbershops were allowed to reopen as long as they abide by certain safety protocols.

The U.S.death count will probably reach 100,000 on Memorial Day, if not sooner.

As for Florida, as we've been saying and USA Today has now reported, they are lying about their case rates and deaths. Just like with China's authoritarian, paranoid government, no numbers coming out of Ron DeSantis' Florida should be believed or used in any averages.

Last night we saw how voters are beginning to realize that, although all governors (except Brian Kemp) are better than Trump, some governors are smart enough to follow science in responding to the pandemic, while others-- like Kristi Noem, Ron DeSantis, Pete Ricketts, Kim Reynolds, Greg Abbott and Mike Parson-- are almost as bad as Trump. Many of these governors mimic Trump and are rushing to reopen far too fast-- or, in some cases, never closed down in the first place.

COVID-Kim

France has had a tough pandemic but, after some hesitation, the people moved to embrace their government's warning and social distancing rules and things have been on the mend. Their cases per million is high for Europe-- 2,757-- although it would be a welcome improvement for many U.S. states. (Rhode Island, for example, is at 12,225 cases per million, Nebraska is at 5,607, Iowa is at 4,865 and Georgia is at 3,660.) France's death toll is 28,022, on a raw basis, worse than any American state other than New York's (28,648). France's deaths per million in the population is 429, in the range of the hard-hit U.S. states in the first wave.

On Monday, the Associated Press reported that Just one week after a third of French schoolchildren went back to school in an easing of coronavirus lockdowns, a worrying flareup of about 70 COVID-19 cases has been linked to schools." Education Minister Jean-Michel Blanquer announced that the 7 schools in northern France were closed again immediately, although he didn't say if the new cases were students or teachers.

Given that the incubation period for the virus is several days, Blanquer said, people are "likely" to have been infected before about 40,000 preschools and primary schools reopened last week, with classes capped at 15 students.

About 30 percent of children went back to school, Blanquer said. The government has allowed parents to keep children at home.

This week, France is reopening junior high schools in "green" regions less affected by the virus, which do not include Paris.

Although the idea of children's being silent "super-spreaders" has been largely debunked in recent analyses, France last week recorded its first death of a child linked to Kawasaki disease, a mysterious inflammatory syndrome that some doctors say could be triggered by COVID-19.

There are similar stories popping up all over this country in areas that have opened up too quickly. On Monday, the Christian Post reported that two weeks after a church in northwest Georgia reopened, families have started coming down with COVID-19 and the church closed back up.

A Georgia church that reopened after shutting down due to the coronavirus has axed in-person services again in what they describe as “an effort of extreme caution” as several of their families have become infected by the deadly disease.

Catoosa Baptist Tabernacle, an independent Baptist church led by Pastor Justin Gazaway in Ringgold, Georgia, restarted in-person services on April 26. Church representative Joan Lewis told The Christian Post on Monday, however, that they decided to suspend “in-person worship services for the foreseeable future” on May 11 after learning several families had contracted the virus.

“Our hearts are heavy as some of our families are dealing with the effects of the COVID-19 virus, and we ask for your prayers for each of them as they follow the prescribed protocol and recuperate at home,” the church said in a formal statement.

Ringgold-- from the 1977 song Ringgold, Georgia by Billy Walker and Brenda Kaye Perry-- has a population of 3,608. It's in Catoosa County, a Trumpist hellhole where he took 78.7% of the vote in 2016. Two years later, crackpot racist Brian Kemp did even better-- 79.5% to Stacey Abrams' 19.3%). It helps elect one of America's most backward right-wing congressmen, Tom Graves and in 2018 the county performed as an R+62 bastion for him! The tiny county has 71 confirmed cases.

Peter Sullivan, reporting for The Hill, reported that Texas, North Carolina and Arizona are all seeing rising caseloads as they reopen too early. "Texas," he wrote, "saw its largest one-day increase in cases on Saturday, with 1,801 new cases. North Carolina also saw its largest single-day jump on Saturday with 853 new cases. And Arizona reported 462 new cases that day, close to a record high. The seven-day average in new cases in all three states has also been rising, according to data compiled by the New York Times."

Yesterday's increases in the 3 states brought them each to ominous new cases per million highs:

• Arizona- 2,001 cases per million
• North Carolina- 1,892 cases per million
• Texas- 1,748 cases per million

Sullivan confirmed that "The data illustrate the risk of states reopening even amid ongoing outbreaks. Texas and Arizona are both relatively far along in reopening, having given the green light to businesses like restaurants and barber shops, though they have cautioned to open with limited capacity and other safety measures. North Carolina is less far down the road toward opening but has entered its first phase, allowing retail stores to open with precautions... Because it takes time for someone with the coronavirus to develop symptoms and get tested, it can take two weeks for new cases to show up in the data."

New York and New Jersey, once by far the epicenter of infections in the United States, have seen significant declines in new cases in recent weeks. But other states, like Texas and Arizona, are seeing increases.  Spokesmen for Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) both pointed to their states’ increasing testing as a factor to explain the increases.

Both states have fairly low positivity rates on their testing (the percentage of total tests that come back positive), a favorable sign. Rates in both states are about 5 percent, down significantly from the rates in April. North Carolina’s positivity rate has been steady at about 6 percent.

Texas said about 700 of the cases in its spike of 1,800 over the weekend came from targeted testing of meatpacking plants in two counties.

All three states are also not seeing problems with hospital capacity, a key metric.

Still, reopening the economy will likely lead to increases in cases, experts say, as people interact more and spread the virus.

“It is not surprising that we are seeing more reported cases given that we have started to reopen, people are more mobile and we’re doing a lot more testing,” said Aaron McKethan, a senior policy fellow at the Duke-Margolis Center for Health Policy.

Anthony Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease expert, warned in high-profile Senate testimony last week of “serious” consequences and “spikes” if states reopen too soon.

Experts also noted, however, that a balance needs to be struck between public health and the economy, given that stay-at-home orders cannot last forever.

“If we were only looking at public health considerations, we would of course maintain lockdown indefinitely, but that’s not feasible,” McKethan said.

Michael Mina, a professor at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, said he thinks the country is on the brink of “societal collapse” if it does not reopen the economy soon, though he noted concerns from a health standpoint.

“Myself and many of my colleagues are very nervous about this idea of opening up this early, without the right pieces in place, but it does need to happen,” Mina said.

One of those key pieces is testing. Ideally, as in countries like South Korea, the number of cases overall would be low enough that new sparks can be stamped out through rigorous testing and contact tracing around emerging outbreaks.

While the situation on those fronts has been improving, there are still weaknesses.

While the number of tests nationwide has climbed to about 350,000 per day recently, Harvard researchers estimated the country needs at least 900,000 tests per day earlier this month.

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) noted the tensions around reopening on Sunday on CNN’s State of the Union, saying his state is at a “plateau” in new cases when he would rather see a decline.

“This is really probably the most crucial time, the most dangerous time, because we are opening back up, because we have to open back up,” he said. “But, at the same time, that creates more exposure, more opportunity for this virus to spread.”

DeWine, like many governors who have tried to do the right thing-- is getting intense pressure from extremist, violent Trumpists to reopen early. Some cave-- like DeWine (R-OH), Gavin Newsom (D-CA), Jared Polis (D-CO) and Larry Hogan (R-MD)-- while others-- Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI), J.B. Pritzker (D-IL), Brad Little (R-ID), Tom Wolf (D-PA) and Jay Inslee (D-WA)-- have held their ground.