Can You Imagine Trump Losing A Deep Red State Like Utah-- Unlikely, But Not Impossible

Utah Capitol

Utah used to be a normal state. Voters were with FDR all 4 times he ran and voted for Harry Truman in 1948. They voted for Eisenhower both times-- but many states did-- and then voted for Nixon over JFK, indicating a possible new direction for the electorate there. After rejecting Barry Goldwater in 1964, Utah has consistently been one of the reddest states in the Union. This is the percentage Utah gave each Republican nominee after 1964:

• 1968- Richard Nixon- 56.49
• 1972- Richard Nixon- 67.64%
• 1976- Gerald Ford- 62.44%
• 1980- Ronald Reagan- 72.77%
• 1984- Ronald Reagan- 74.50%
• 1988- George HW Bush- 66.22%
• 1992- George HW Bush- 43.36% (Perot- 27.34%)
• 1996- Bob Dole- 54.37% (Perot- 9.98%)
• 2000- George W. Bush- 66.83%
• 2004- George W Bush- 71.54%
• 2008- John McCain- 62.58%
• 2012- Mitt Romney- 72.79%
• 2016- Trumpanzee- 45.05%

In 2016, many Utah voters were nauseated by Trump but just couldn't pull the lever for a Democrat (Hillary Clinton). Bernie had beaten her soundly in the state's caucuses that year-- 79.3% to 20.3% and winning every singe county. In the Republican caucuses, Trump lost every single county and in some came in third. In fact, in some counties, Bernie drew more votes than Trump did-- including the big urban and suburban counties and the tiny rural counties!

• Cache County

Bernie- 2,906
Trump- 1,049

• Davis County

Bernie- 3,563
Trump- 2,902

• Grand County

Bernie- 636
Trump- 127

• Kane County

Bernie- 186
Trump- 137

• Salt Lake County

Bernie- 35,610
Trump- 6,542

• Summit County

Bernie- 1,645
Trump- 459

• Utah County

Bernie- 6,071
Trump- 3,713

• Wasatch County

Bernie- 557
Trump- 386

• Wayne County

Bernie- 70
Trump- 46

• Weber County

Bernie- 5,465
Trump- 1,695

But what happened in the general... well, Hillary. So many voters disaffected with Trump, voted for Evan McMullin, a native son running as an independent:

• Trump- 515,231 (45.54%)
• Hillary- 310,676 (27.46%)
• McMullin- 243,690 (21.54%)

Polling this cycle, shows many Utah Republicans till disaffected with the profane and decidedly and severely unpresidential Trump. The KUTV New poll suggests Trump could even lose the state's 6 electoral votes! He leads Biden 44-41%

"The close race," wrote UtahPolicy.com managing editor Bryan Schott, "is likely a factor of Trump’s unpopularity instead of rising support for Biden. Trump’s lead shrunk 2 points from our April survey [which had] him leading Biden 46-41 percent. Trump’s poor showing in Utah is in line with 2016 when he carried the state with just 45.5 percent. Clearly, Trump has not expanded his base of support since that time... Where Trump runs into trouble is among independent voters and political moderates. Biden leads Trump by 10 points among true independent voters, 38-28 percent. Moderates back Biden over Trump 53-19 percent. That unease about giving Trump another term in office among political independents and moderate Utah voters is the primary reason the contest with Biden is so close at this point in the race." Trump is leading among men 51-35% and losing among women 47-37%.

The survey also shows Trump trails Biden in both the 2nd and 4th Congressional Districts, which both contain significant parts of Salt Lake City and County. In CD 2, Biden leads Trump 46-42 percent. In the 4th District, Biden is ahead 43-38 percent.

  That distaste for Trump could have an impact on the hotly contested race in the 4th District. Right now, four Republicans are vying to be the party’s nominee to take on [Blue Dog] Democrat Ben McAdams in November. Former NFL player Burgess Owens is the current frontrunner in that race according to a Y2 Analytics survey, but the race is still wide open. Trump’s unpopularity could be a drag on the eventual GOP nominee in November. That might be key as McAdams barely squeaked to a win in 2018 in the heavily Republican district.

It’s curious that Trump is losing to Biden in the 2nd Congressional District, given that Rep. Chris Stewart, who represents the district, is one of Trump’s most fervent supporters in Congress. However, that is not expected to dampen Stewart’s chances to win another term as the district is rated “solid Republican” by several election forecasters.

I know, I know... the chances are slim to none, but imagine-- if you will-- what would happen if Utah Senator Mitt Romney and a coalition of Utah elder statesmen and political leaders make it clear what they think of the damage Trump has been doing to America, just as voters in Utah, a vote-by-mail state, start filling in their ballots in October.