Finger To The Wind-- Wet Index or Dry Middle?

Axios reported on Engagious focus group findings of Obama voters who flipped to Trump in Sioux City Iowa. There are not voters who like any of the Democrats running for president-- but do love the progressive policies being espoused by Bernie and by Elizabeth Warren. As you can imagine, they were a typical basket of deplorables, against the idea of a woman in the presidency, unaware of Medicare-For-All or the Green New Deal, unaware of the names of any of the Democrats running other than Bernie, Biden and Elizabeth Warren-- and willing to re-elect Trump. Only one was willing to come out of the Darkness and back to American values.

Also out yesterday was a new poll from Politico by Morning Consult. The general stuff:

• Country's on the wrong track- 62%
• Trump's disapproval- 56%
• Trump's reelection number- 37%
• Generic congressional election- 43% Democrat, 37% Republican

When he came to testing matters of fact, though, the respondents were so ignorant that it has to make someone question whether democracy is a even viable form of government. Some examples:

Q- Generally speaking, do you think President Donald Trump has been successful or unsuccessful in business?

• Very successful- 31%
• Somewhat successful- 23%
• Somewhat unsuccessful- 11%
• Very unsuccessful- 25%
• Don’t know / No opinion- 10%

A followup question: As you may know, a review of Internal Revenue Service tax transcripts found that President Trump reported a total of $1.17 billion in losses between 1985 and 1994. Based on what you know now, do you think President Trump has been successful or unsuccessful in business?

• Very successful- 24%
• Somewhat successful- 19%
• Somewhat unsuccessful- 13%
• Very unsuccessful- 29%
• Don’t know / No opinion- 16%

Another followup: Thinking about how President Trump has handled his responsibilities as president, would you say the following helped him, hurt him, or did it make no difference either way? His business experiences

• Helped a lot- 28%
• Helped some- 20%
• Hurt some- 12%
• Hurt a lot- 21%
• No difference either way- 11%
• Don’t know / No opinion- 9%

A question for you now: Should these people lose their right to vote?

• 2% think North Korea is an ally
• 2% think Iran is an ally
• 4% think Russia is an ally
• 1% think France is an enemy
• 2% think Germany is an enemy
• 1% think the U.K. is an enemy
• 1% think Canada is an enemy
• 4% think Mexico is an enemy
• 5% think Israel is an enemy
• 12% never heard of Mitch McConnell
• 6% never heard of Nancy Pelosi
• 15% never heard of Chuck Schumer
• 31% never heard iff Kevin McCarthy
• 5% never heard of Mike Pence
• 1% never heard of Donald J. Trump

Democratic primary voters may be as dumb as Trump supporters:

• 21% say they are more likely to vote for Biden because of how he handled Anita Hill
• 21% say they are more likely to vote for Biden because of his vote in favor of invading Iraq in 2002
• 45% say they are more likely to vote for Biden because of "his role in passing sweeping crime legislation during the 1990s."
• 51% say they are more likely to vote for Biden because of "his advocacy for free-trade deals including the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the Trans-Paci􏰀c Partnership (TPP)"

As I've been saying Change Research is doing the best polls this cycle and they're the firm whose work I'm most interested in following. They have a new one out this week of New Hampshire Democratic primary voters. Findings include-- ZERO percent of these voters have a "very favorable" view of Trump (90% very unfavorable) or Pence (83% very unfavorable) and 30% have a very favorable view of Pelosi (9% very unfavorable). 92% think the country is on the wrong track. The two top issues, overwhelmingly so, are healthcare (23%) and Environment/Climate (15%). No other issues above 4%.

Now the favorability of the Democratic candidates-- this is a combination of "very favorable" and "somewhat favorable"

• Bernie- 73%
• Biden- 66%
• Elizabeth Warren- 65%
• Kamala- 58%
• McKinsey Pete- 56%
• Beto- 48%
• Cory Booker- 45%
• Stacee Abrams- 33%
• Amy Klobuchar- 28%
• Kirsten Gillibrand- 28%
• Julian Castro- 25%
• Tulsi- 21%
• Frackenlooper- 21%
• Eric Swalwell- 15%
• Andrew Yang- 15%
• Jay Inslee- 12%
• Seth Moulton- 11%
• John Delaney- 9%
• Tim Ryan- 8%
• Michael Bennet- 8%
• Marianne Williamson- 6%
• Mike Gravel- 5%
• Steve Bullock- 2%
• Wayne Messam- 2%

And who will they vote for in the nation's very primary?

• Bernie- 30%
• Biden- 26%
• McKinsey Pete- 12%
• Elizabeth Warren- 9%
• Kamala- 8%
• Beto- 3%

Everybody else is at 1%, 2% or zero percent. Kirsten Gillibrand is still at zero percent-- and still insisting it's because voters are against women. The candidate who was picked most frequently for second choice was Elizabeth Warren (19%), followed by Biden (15%), Bernie (14%), Kamala (13%) and McKinsey Pete (13%). No one else into the double digits. And this morning we get a new contestant, the mayor of New York City. I'm sure Trump will have fun with him. Why the hell is de Blasio doing this? Will he get out of the 1% Club? Nice video enough video though.





Now, where were we? Oh, yeah...which candidates do they think are smart? (Spoiler: not Biden, the front-runner.)

• Elizabeth Warren- 65%
• Bernie- 62%
• McKinsey Pete- 50%

Who do they think is tough?

• Elizabeth Warren- 62%
• Bernie- 56%
• Biden- 51%

Who do they think is likable?

• Biden- 64%
• Bernie- 56%
• McKinsey Pete- 52%

Who do they think is honest and ethical?

• Bernie- 62%
• Elizabeth Warren- 48%
• Biden- 47%

Who do they think is most likely to defeat Trump in 2020?

• Biden- 68%
• Bernie- 58%
• Elizabeth Warren- 35%

Yesterday Judd Legum did a Q&A with Bernie at Popular Information and Bernie made it clear he has a vision that goes beyond just beating Trump:

Our campaign is not designed to just defeat Donald Trump, but to also create a government that works for all people, not just the top one percent. What that means is that election day is not the end, it is the beginning. Our slogan is “not me, us”-- and by that I mean that no president can transform America alone. We need a mobilized movement of millions of people across America to defeat Trump, the most dangerous president in modern history, but to also then demand that their lawmakers in Washington start representing the 99 percent.

When we introduce a Medicare for All bill, our $15 minimum wage bill, serious gun reform, criminal justice reform to end private prisons, and legislation to repeal tax breaks for corporations and billionaires -- we are not going to be doing that in a vacuum. We are going to have millions of Americans demanding that their representatives reject the pressure from corporate lobbyists and pass this agenda.

American history tells us that this is not some pipe dream. Our country managed to pass the New Deal, Medicare, Medicaid and civil rights legislation. Despite powerful opposition and difficult congressional rules, those initiatives were ultimately able to pass because they had mobilized mass movements behind them. That’s what this political revolution is about.

Judd: One critical issue for a lot of Democrats is nominating someone with the best chance of beating Trump. The party itself is younger, female, and diverse. Some people think Democrats would be better off nominating someone who better reflects the composition of the party. Why are you the best person to take on Trump?

The Democratic Party must have a nominee who can take on Donald Trump, and I will support whoever we nominate out of the great group of people who are running.

I believe we need a nominee who is not afraid to directly challenge Trump and his billionaire backers. We also need a nominee with a proven record fighting for working people and also repeatedly winning elections when they go up against powerful Republican opponents. That is why I believe I am the best positioned to defeat Trump.

I have spent my entire life as a champion for working people, and I believe voters understand that our campaign is truly about challenging the establishment at a moment when that establishment has created so many of the crises we now face. This is why we already have an unprecedented grassroots movement behind our campaign: 1 million people have signed up to volunteer for the campaign, we have more than 525,000 individual donors, and we just had more than 4,700 organizing events across the country.

Now, let me be clear: this isn’t going to be easy. We’re going to have to take on the insurance industry, the pharmaceutical companies, fossil fuel CEOs, corporate agribusiness, the prison-industrial complex and so many other opponents. I am more confident than ever that by doing this, we are going to defeat Trump and transform this country.

One last poll for today: Survey Monkey did one for Business Insider that shows support for the Bernie/AOC plan to cap credit card interest rates-- the anti-loan shark bill.

The vast majority of both Republicans and Democrats who said they plan to vote in the 2020 presidential primary support legislation rolled out by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Bernie Sanders last week that would cap credit-card interest rates at 15%.

Nearly 70% of Republican primary voters and 73% of Democratic primary voters said they either support or strongly support the proposal to cap rates at 15%, according to a new Insider poll. Just over 60% of respondents who don't plan to vote in the 2020 presidential primaries also said they support the bill, known as the Loan Shark Prevention Act.

Just 13% of GOP primary voters were opposed to the idea, while 7% of Democratic primary voters were opposed.

...[T]he bill would impose the cap on credit-card interest rates at the federal level and allow states to establish even lower interest rates. The bill would also give the Federal Reserve flexibility to allow lenders to charge higher rates if it's determined the federal cap "would threaten the safety and soundness of financial institutions."

The median credit-card interest rate was 21.36% as of last week, compared with 12.62% a decade ago, according to Creditcards.com. Meanwhile, Americans collectively hold more than $1 trillion in credit-card debt, according to the Federal Reserve.

The law would implement a 15% interest-rate cap on all federal loans and also institute postal banking-- allowing the US postal service to offer banking services as an alternative to payday lenders and commercial banks.